Polis Maintains Lead in Latest Poll Numbers

Jared Polis (left) and Walker Stapleton.

Democrat Jared Polis has consistently polled ahead of Republican Walker Stapleton in the race for Governor, and two new polls indicate much of the same.

Republican-leaning outfit Magellan Strategies shows Polis with a 5-point lead over Stapleton. This is a slight change from a Magellan poll conducted two weeks ago, but the difference is well within the margin of error. Poll results from a consortium led by Democratic-leaning Keating Research and OnSight Public Affairs indicate that Polis is leading Stapleton by 8 points heading into the final days of the election.

As Jon Murray reports for the Denver Post, a closer look at the numbers show Polis well ahead in several important subgroups:

In both of the new polls, Polis notched double-digit leads over Stapleton among women, unaffiliated voters and voters in their 40s or younger. Notably, the Magellan poll reported more voters undecided overall (11 percent) than the Colorado Poll (4 percent)…

…David Flaherty [of Magellan Strategies] said Stapleton remains the clear underdog, given Polis’ consistent leads as well as mail ballot returns that, so far, show registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters outpacing their 2014 midterm turnout. Republicans, while leading slightly in returns through Tuesday, were underperforming significantly compared to the GOP wave election four years ago.

The latest ballot return numbers available this morning from the Colorado Secretary of State show a surge of returns from Unaffiliated voters and no indication that Republican turnout is on the uptick. More than 1 million Coloradans have now returned ballots.

The Keating/OnSight poll also tracked approval ratings for President Trump and Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Yuma), both of whom will likely be on the ballot in 2020. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 59 percent of respondents, with only 39 percent expressing a positive opinion of the President. Gardner’s favorability rating remains upside-down, with 43 percent of respondents professing a negative view of the freshman Senator (compared to 42 percent showing approval). Perhaps more concerning for Gardner is that he is only viewed favorably by 71 percent of Republicans, compared to Trump’s 82 percent approval with the GOP base.

4 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DavidThi808 says:

    Wait, you mean those Stapleton ads that blatently lie about Jared aren't working? What's the world coming to when facts trump Republican lies…

  2. Pseudonymous says:

    Walkover Stapleton.

  3. JohnInDenver says:

    Magellan Strategies recognizes the possibility of skew in their "likely voter" screen, too. Never mind what the early voting percentages are, they say, they wanted consistency.

    for the purposes of consistency and comparison to our last survey on October 9th, we have decided to keep the party weights the for this survey the same, being 35% Republican, 33% Democrat, 31% unaffiliated and 1% other. We completely understand that the final voter turnout by party may be less Republican than this survey indicates, and what our own ballot return reports indicate. But again, for reasons of consistency and comparison we are using the same party weights from our October 9th survey.

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