The Big Line: 2026

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: June 4, 2025

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)
Colorado’s most recognizable political name has never lost an election. He won’t in 2026, either.

(R) Somebody (20%)
There will be a Republican candidate here. They won’t win.

GOVERNOR

(D) Michael Bennet (60%)↑
Bennet announced in mid-April that he is running for Governor.

(D) Phil Weiser (50%)↓
Two-term Attorney General will have trouble with Bennet.

(D) Ken Salazar (20%)↓
Salazar seems to still be considering a campaign, but this ship has sailed.

(R) Mark Baisley (10%)
State Senator has already laid down his marker, but nobody will be worried about him.

(R) Scott Bottoms (10%)
Bonkers State Representative from Colorado Springs is really running. Really.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (10%)↑
State Senator and 2022 Congressional hopeful is testing the waters for a “RINOs are Good” message.

(R) Greg Lopez (10%)↑
Lopez ran for Governor in 2018 and 2022, so of course he’s running again in 2026.

(R) Jason Mikesell (5%)
Teller County Sheriff has five other white dudes on board!

(D) Jared Polis* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

(D) Jena Griswold (OFF)
Term-limited Secretary of State running for Attorney General in 2026.

(D) Joe Neguse (OFF)
Neguse has endorsed Michael Bennet for Governor.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Michael Dougherty (40%)
Boulder County DA was first candidate to officially announce bid for AG.

(D) Jena Griswold (40%)
Griswold is in.

(D) David Seligman (30%)
Local attorney represents lefty flank and claims to have raised $250k on first day as candidate.

(D) Crisanta Duran (2%)↓
Sounds like Duran is going to shift to something else rather than continue this no-hope campaign.

(R) Somebody (20%)
There will be a Republican candidate here. They won’t win.

(D) Phil Weiser* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (50%)
Current Jeffco Clerk and Recorder gets bumped up by being first in the pool.

(D) Jesse Danielson (40%)
Jefferson County State Senator is poised to join the fray.

(R) Sheri Davis (30%)
Douglas County Clerk and Recorder will run hard against Jena Griswold’s record. This might be best Republican chance at statewide office in 2026.

(D) Steve Fenberg (20%)
Outgoing State Senate leader has acknowledged he’s looking but probably needs to get going soon.

(D) Jena Griswold* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Brianna Titone (40%)
State Representative from Arvada would be a Colorado first if elected.

(D) Jeff Bridges (40%)
State Senator and Chair of the Joint Budget Committee joined the race on April 15.

(R) Kevin Grantham (30%)
Former State Senate President and Fremont County Commissioner is being floated here.

(D) Jerry DiTullio (10%)↓
Jefferson County Treasurer is not particularly well-respected and can’t compete with Titone and Bridges.

(D) Dave Young* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (90%)
DeGette’s only concern, as always, is a Democratic Primary challenge.

(R) Somebody (2%)
Doesn’t matter.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse won’t have trouble winning re-election here.

(R) Somebody (2%)
This is a solid Democratic seat; no serious Republican should even bother.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd* (70%)
The “Bread Sandwich” is off to a weird start, but Republican registration advantage keeps him comfortable.

(R) Hope Scheppelman (30%)
Former State GOP Vice Chair under Dave Williams will challenge Hurd in a Primary.

(D) Alex Kelloff (10%)
Entrepreneur from Snowmass is first Democrat in the race.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (90%)
Boebert moved here for a reason: CO-04 is the single most Republican-heavy district in the state. She’ll underperform, but probably not enough to matter.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (20%)
Lost to Boebert by 12 points in 2024, which was better than the district’s general Republican performance

(D) Eileen Laubacher (20%)
Navy Rear Admiral and Colorado native served on Biden’s National Security Council.

(D) John Padora (10%)
Lost Democratic nomination in 2024 to Calvarese but is giving it another go in 2026.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank* (80%)
The first re-election bid for a new Member of Congress is usually tough, and this district is slowly moving to the left.

(D) Somebody (20%)
If Democrats could recruit a middle-of-the-road military veteran, this could be interesting.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Crow will be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) Somebody (10%)
Republicans will only put up token opposition.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen* (90%)
Pettersen won by 15 points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. She’s safe.

(R) Somebody (10%)
Like most of Colorado’s congressional districts, CO-07 is only winnable for one political party.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(R) Gabe Evans* (45%)↓
Gabe’s vote to slash Medicaid funding, which is critical for many in his district, is the kind of vote that ends careers.

(D) Yadira Caraveo (30%)
Former Congresswoman is running again, for better or worse.

(D) Manny Rutinel (30%)
Commerce City lawmaker was first Democrat to officially join the race in 2026 and is already raising big money.

(D) Shannon Bird (30%)
State Representative entered the race in late May.

(D) Dave Young (30%)
State Treasurer and longtime lawmaker from Greeley is well-known in CO-08.

(D) Amie Baca-Oehlert (20%)
Former President of Colorado Education Association looks to represent far-left flank.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2024 cycle with a 23-12 advantage and ended in the same place. There’s no path for Republicans here.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent $5.5 million in 2024 to end up right back where they started.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
Democrats lost a few seats in 2024 but still hold the second-largest majority in modern state history.

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans won a few seats in 2024 that they should have already held. There’s no path to majority anytime soon.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2026 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.