The Big Line: 2026

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: May 27, 2026

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)
Colorado’s most recognizable political name has never lost an election.

(D) Julie Gonzales (20%)↓
Gonzales doesn’t have the money to communicate to Primary voters in a meaningful way.

(R) Mark Baisley (10%)
Republicans selected Baisley, who already failed at running for Governor in 2026, as their sole nominee for U.S. Senate.

(R) Janak Joshi (OFF)
Failed to make Primary ballot.

GOVERNOR

(D) Phil Weiser (50%)
This race feels like a true toss-up.

(D) Michael Bennet (50%)
Bennet’s campaign was pretty quiet for a long time, but the ads are coming fast.

(R) Victor Marx (20%)↑
The Cajun Karate Master seems to be rolling toward the GOP nomination.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (15%)↓
“Both Ways Barb” has been stuck in neutral for the better part of a year.

(R) Scott Bottoms (10%)↓
He has less money in the bank than most state legislative campaigns.

(I) Greg Lopez (5%)
Lopez has decided to lose as an ‘I’ instead of losing as an ‘R,’ but at least he’ll finally make a General Election ballot!

(D) Jared Polis* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Jena Griswold (40%)
Griswold’s huge name ID advantage will likely be the difference here.

(D) Michael Dougherty (30%)
Boulder County DA is clearly the most experienced candidate for the job.

(D) Hetal Doshi (30%)
Doshi has run a strong campaign but hasn’t been able to break through.

(D) David Seligman (15%)
Seligman is fading fast.

(R) Michael Allen (10%)↓
District Attorney (El Paso, Teller Counties) joined race in mid-January with bland message.

(R) David Wilson (10%)
Former attorney for Tina Peters made the ballot at the Republican assembly.

(D) Phil Weiser* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jessie Danielson (50%)↓
Jefferson County State Senator trying to close strong after losing early momentum.

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (40%)↑
Gonzalez won top line at state assembly and keeps hanging around.

(R) James Wiley (10%)
Republicans selected a nominee for SOS who was a candidate for Congress in 2024…for the Libertarian Party.

(D) Jena Griswold* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Jeff Bridges (80%)↑
State Senator and Chair of the Joint Budget Committee knocked out all Democratic challengers at assembly.

(R) Kevin Grantham (20%)↓
The excitement — it burns.

(D) Dave Young* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (70%)
DeGette frequently faces Primary challenges from the left but has never had much trouble in the end.

(D) Milat Kiros (20%)
Kiros made top line via assembly process but doesn’t have the resources for final push.

(D) Wanda James (10%)↓
This is a campaign without a direction.

(R) Somebody? (2%)
No Republican candidate yet, not that it matters.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
This race was over the day after the 2024 election ended.

(R) Somebody? (2%)
Still no Republican candidate here.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd* (50%)↓
The “Bread Sandwich” stabbed rural health care providers in the back and will pay for it politically.

(D) Dwayne Romero (35%)↑
Aspen politician has good resume and is closing strong after very late start.

(D) Alex Kelloff (30%)↓
Fundraising has slowed and Romero has clearly cut into support.

(R) Ron Hanks (20%)
Former State Representative and CO-03 candidate made surprise late entry, earning ballot access via GOP assembly.

(R) Hope Scheppelman (OFF)
Ending campaign to take nebulous “job” in Trump administration

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (80%)
This is the single most Republican-heavy district in the state; the fact that Boebert isn’t even trying to raise money speaks volumes.

(D) Eileen Laubacher (20%)
Navy Rear Admiral and Colorado native will be the Democratic nominee after Calvarese withdrawal from race.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (OFF)
Ended campaign on March 31.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank* (53%)↓
Crank seems to have determined that his best chance at re-election is to keep his lips planted firmly on President Trump’s ass.

(D) Jessica Killin (48%)↑
Killin made the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” list, cementing status as a top challenger nationwide.

(D) Joe Reagan (10%)
Got just enough support through caucus/assembly process to sneak onto Primary ballot.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (95%)
Crow will be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) Mel Tewahade (2%)
Really doesn’t matter.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen* (95%)
Pettersen won by 15 points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. She’s safe.

(R) Amanda Capobianco (2%)
At least Republicans now know the name of the person who won’t beat Pettersen in 2026.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(R) Gabe Evans* (45%)↓
The Generic Congressional ballot polling should be terrifying.

(D) Manny Rutinel (30%)↑
Rutinel’s campaign is relying on digital ad strategy for targeting younger voters.

(D) Shannon Bird (30%)↑
Bird is running a traditional TV and mail-heavy paid media campaign.

(D) Evan Munsing (OFF)
Ended campaign on May 27.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2024 cycle with a 23-12 advantage and ended in the same place. There’s no path for Republicans here.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent $5.5 million in 2024 and netted ZERO seats. Rinse, repeat.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
The only mystery here is about the final size of a Democratic majority in 2027.

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans are just moving food around their plates in a caucus full of unserious buffoons.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2026 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.