The Big Line: 2026

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: June 19, 2026

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)
Colorado’s most recognizable political name has never lost an election; there’s no indication he will in 2026.

(D) Julie Gonzales (20%)↓
Gonzales has not run a competitive campaign. Period.

(R) Mark Baisley (10%)
Baisley already failed at running for Governor in 2026. He’ll fail here, too.

GOVERNOR

(D) Phil Weiser (50%)↑
It’s tough to argue that Weiser doesn’t have the momentum in the final days.

(D) Michael Bennet (50%)
Bennet loaned his campaign $1 million, which is generally not something you do if you’re feeling bullish.

(R) Victor Marx (20%)
The Cajun Karate Master is (predictably) falling apart under scrutiny, though it might be happening too late to derail nomination.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (15%)↓
“Both Ways Barb” started slow, maintained a slow pace, and is ending slow.

(R) Scott Bottoms (10%)↓
He has less money in the bank than most state legislative campaigns.

(I) Greg Lopez (5%)
Lopez has decided to lose as an ‘I’ instead of losing as an ‘R,’ but at least he’ll finally make a General Election ballot!

(D) Jared Polis* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Jena Griswold (40%)
It will be hard for any Democrat to get past Griswold’s name ID advantage despite bad press.

(D) Michael Dougherty (30%)↑
Boulder County DA picked up Denver Post endorsement and seems to be Griswold’s closest competition.

(D) Hetal Doshi (30%)
Doshi likely needs to jump both Griswold and Dougherty.

(D) David Seligman (15%)↓
It would be a surprise if Seligman doesn’t finish in fourth place in the Primary Election.

(R) Michael Allen (10%)↓
El Paso County District Attorney might be best Republican statewide candidate in 2026…which isn’t saying much.

(R) David Willson (10%)
Former attorney for Tina Peters somehow made the ballot at the Republican assembly.

(D) Phil Weiser* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jessie Danielson (50%)
The Democratic Primary feels like it could go either way.

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (50%)
This is a coin flip.

(R) James Wiley (10%)
Republicans selected a nominee for SOS who was a candidate for Congress in 2024…for the Libertarian Party.

(D) Jena Griswold* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Jeff Bridges (80%)↑
State Senator and Chair of the Joint Budget Committee knocked out all Democratic challengers at assembly.

(R) Kevin Grantham (20%)↓
Fremont County Commissioner and former Senate President should be better at this.

(D) Dave Young* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (55%)↓
DeGette is facing the toughest Primary challenge of her career.

(D) Melat Kiros (45%)↑
Kiros has been picking up momentum, though it’s hard to beat a longtime incumbent without significant resources.

(D) Wanda James (10%)↓
The question here is whether James can pull enough non-DeGette votes from Kiros.

(R) Somebody? (2%)
No Republican candidate yet, not that it matters.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
This race was over the day after the 2024 election ended.

(R) Somebody (2%)
There are two Republican candidates seeking the GOP nomination. Neither have a chance in November.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd* (50%)↓
The “Bread Sandwich” stabbed rural health care providers in the back and should pay for it politically.

(D) Dwayne Romero (35%)↑
Aspen politician has good resume and is closing strong after very late start.

(D) Alex Kelloff (30%)↓
Slowed noticeably after Romero entered race.

(R) Ron Hanks (20%)
Former State Representative and CO-03 candidate made surprise late entry, earning ballot access via GOP assembly.

(R) Hope Scheppelman (OFF)
Ending campaign to take nebulous “job” in Trump administration

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (80%)
This is the single most Republican-heavy district in the state; the fact that Boebert isn’t even trying to raise money speaks volumes.

(D) Eileen Laubacher (20%)
Navy Rear Admiral and Colorado native will be the Democratic nominee after Calvarese withdrawal from race.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (OFF)
Ended campaign on March 31.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank* (53%)↓
Crank seems to have determined that his best chance at re-election is to keep his lips planted firmly on President Trump’s ass.

(D) Jessica Killin (48%)↑
Killin made the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” list, cementing status as a top challenger nationwide.

(D) Joe Reagan (10%)
Got just enough support through caucus/assembly process to sneak onto Primary ballot.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (95%)
Crow will be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) Mel Tewahade (2%)
Really doesn’t matter.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen* (95%)
Pettersen won by 15 points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. She’s safe.

(R) Amanda Capobianco (2%)
At least Republicans now know the name of the person who won’t beat Pettersen in 2026.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(R) Gabe Evans* (45%)↓
There’s really no argument for a second term.

(D) Manny Rutinel (40%)↑
It’s looking like Rutinel will win the Democratic Primary.

(D) Shannon Bird (30%)
Bird has had trouble overcoming attack on her 2025 vote regarding ICE.

(D) Evan Munsing (OFF)
Ended campaign on May 27.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2024 cycle with a 23-12 advantage and ended in the same place. There’s no path for Republicans here.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent $5.5 million in 2024 and netted ZERO seats. Rinse, repeat.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
The only mystery here is about the final size of a Democratic majority in 2027.

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans are just moving food around their plates in a caucus full of unserious buffoons.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2026 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.