The Big Line: 2026

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: November 3, 2025

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)
Colorado’s most recognizable political name has never lost an election. He won’t in 2026, either.

(R) Janak Joshi (20%)
If this were Jeopardy, Joshi would be perfect for the category: ‘People Who Won’t be U.S. Senators.’

GOVERNOR

(D) Michael Bennet (55%)
Bennet has a lot of advantages here, but he’s not pulling away from Weiser.

(D) Phil Weiser (50%)↑
Two-term Attorney General is fundraising well and racking up big endorsements.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (20%)↑
“Both Ways Barb” could be a better candidate than the GOP has had in years, but it’s all relative.

(R) Victor Marx (20%)
“Ministry leader” hopes to gaze contemplatively into the Republican nomination in 2026.

(R) Mark Baisley (5%)
State Senator has been in the race longer than anyone…and has done very little in that time.

(R) Scott Bottoms (5%)
Bonkers State Representative from Colorado Springs isn’t doing much besides complaining about Kirkmeyer.

(R) Greg Lopez (5%)
Lopez ran for Governor in 2018 and 2022, so why stop now?

(R) Jason Mikesell (2%)
Teller County Sheriff has five other white dudes on board!

(D) Jared Polis* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Jena Griswold (50%)
Griswold has turned significant name ID advantage into sizable fundraising advantage.

(D) Michael Dougherty (40%)↓
Boulder County DA is doing enough to be competitive through the caucus/assembly process.

(D) Hetal Doshi (30%)
Doshi continues to raise decent sums of money, though her burn rate is a concern.

(D) David Seligman (20%)↓
The far left likes him, but donors seem unconvinced. After a good initial fundraising quarter he fell off in Q3.

(R) Somebody (10%)
There will be a Republican candidate here. They won’t win.

(D) Phil Weiser* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

(D) Crisanta Duran (OFF)
Duran finally read the writing on the wall and bowed out in August.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jesse Danielson (50%)↑
Jefferson County State Senator is pulling away from Gonzalez.

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (20%)↓
Current Jeffco Clerk and Recorder had field to herself for six months but didn’t capitalize.

(R) Sheri Davis (10%)
Douglas County Clerk and Recorder will likely run hard against Jena Griswold’s record…if she gets in the race.

(D) Jena Griswold* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Jeff Bridges (50%)↑
State Senator and Chair of the Joint Budget Committee is definitely the early leader in this clubhouse.

(D) Brianna Titone (40%)↓
State Representative from Arvada would be first transgender candidate elected statewide, but she has a lot of work to do.

(R) Kevin Grantham (30%)
Former State Senate President and Fremont County Commissioner made it official in September but didn’t impress in fundraising.

(D) Jerry DiTullio (10%)↓
The fat lady has been singing to the Jefferson County Treasurer for the last six months.

(D) Dave Young* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (80%)
DeGette frequently faces Primary challenges from the left flank but has never been truly challenged.

(D) Wanda James (20%)
James may be one of better DeGette Primary challengers in recent years, but it’s not a particularly high bar.

(D) Milat Kiros (10%)↓
Kiros is spending money as fast as she raises it, which is not sustainable for a serious campaign.

(R) Somebody (2%)
Doesn’t matter.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse won’t have trouble winning re-election here.

(R) Somebody (2%)
Doesn’t matter; Neguse won’t lose here.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd* (60%)↓
The “Bread Sandwich” has exhausted all credibility and has been equally bland on the fundraising front.

(D) Alex Kelloff (40%)↓
Entrepreneur from Snowmass started strong but has faded of late.

(R) Hope Scheppelman (30%)↑
Former State GOP Vice Chair is doing enough to be a serious threat to Hurd through the caucus/assembly process.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (90%)
This is the single most Republican-heavy district in the state. Her pitiful Q3 fundraising numbers indicate a lack of concern for re-election.

(D) Eileen Laubacher (30%)↑
Navy Rear Admiral and Colorado native has made a strong case as the top Democratic challenger for 2026.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (20%)
Outperformed district’s general Republican performance in 2024 but will have trouble getting past Laubacher.

(D) John Padora (5%)
Lost Democratic nomination in 2024 to Calvarese and is destined to fall further behind in 2026.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank* (60%)↓
The first re-election bid for a new Member of Congress is usually tough; this district is slowly moving to the left; and Crank did nothing to keep Space Command HQ in Colorado Springs.

(D) Jessica Killin (40%)↑
Former COS to first gentleman Doug Emhoff matched Crank’s cash-on-hand numbers in just one fundraising quarter.

(I) Matt Cavanaugh (20%)
Combat veteran is fairly well-known in Colorado Springs, but “Independent” candidates historically don’t win Congressional races.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Crow will be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) Somebody (2%)
Republicans will likely find a sacrificial lamb of some sort.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen* (90%)
Pettersen won by 15 points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. She’s safe.

(R) Somebody (2%)
Like most of Colorado’s congressional districts, CO-07 is only winnable for one political party.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(R) Gabe Evans* (45%)↓
Gabe’s vote to slash Medicaid funding, which is critical for many in his district, is the kind of vote that ends careers.

(D) Shannon Bird (30%)
Bird is running a strong campaign but needs to catch up to Rutinel on the financial front.

(D) Manny Rutinel (30%)
Commerce City lawmaker was first Democrat to officially join the race in 2026 and has been busy raising money.

(D) Evan Munsing (20%)
Munsing performed surprisingly well in first full fundraising quarter. Does he have a second act?

(D) Dave Young (10%)↓
State Treasurer and longtime lawmaker from Greeley is well-known in CO-08 but isn’t attracting much support.

(D) Amie Baca-Oehlert (OFF)
Former President of Colorado Education Association was going nowhere; ended campaign on Halloween.

(D) Yadira Caraveo (OFF)
Former Congresswoman dropped out of race in September.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2024 cycle with a 23-12 advantage and ended in the same place. There’s no path for Republicans here.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent $5.5 million in 2024 to end up right back where they started.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
Democrats lost a few seats in 2024 but still hold the second-largest majority in modern state history.

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans won a few seats in 2024 that they should have already held. There’s no path to majority anytime soon.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2026 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.