The Big Line: 2026

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2026 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: February 10, 2026

U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)
Colorado’s most recognizable political name has never lost an election; 2026 won’t be the first.

(D) Julie Gonzales (20%)↓
No Democratic Senate candidate in the country raised less money in the last quarter of 2025. Supporters can argue about policy disagreements, but this campaign is going nowhere.

(R) Janak Joshi (10%)
We’ll take “People Who Won’t be U.S. Senators” for $200, Alex (er, Ken).

(R) Mark Baisley (10%)
State Senator has decided to lose the race for U.S. Senate instead of losing the race for Governor. It would save Republicans some trouble if he could do both.

GOVERNOR

(D) Michael Bennet (50%)
Bennet has more financial resources, but it doesn’t look like money will be the differentiating factor in the Primary Election.

(D) Phil Weiser (50%)
Two-term Attorney General has done well on fundraising and endorsements, but can he overcome big name ID disadvantage?

(R) Victor Marx (20%)↑
Marx is a vapid weirdo, but the Colorado Republican Party loves them some vapid weirdos.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (20%)↓
“Both Ways Barb” has been running in place for months.

(R) Joe Oltmann (5%)
Because the Republican field of candidates really needed to get worse.

(R) Scott Bottoms (5%)
Bonkers State Representative from Colorado Springs is in the desperate “say crazy shit for attention” phase.

(I) Greg Lopez (5%)
Lopez has decided to lose as an ‘I’ instead of losing as an ‘R,’ but at least he’ll finally make a General Election ballot!

(R) Jason Mikesell (1%)↓
Teller County Sheriff raised $6k in the last three months of 2025. That’s…not good.

(D) Jared Polis* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Jena Griswold (50%)
Griswold is in the driver’s seat thanks to strong name ID and a big fundraising advantage.

(D) Hetal Doshi (30%)↑
Doshi is showing fundraising resilience but only has half of Griswold’s warchest.

(D) Michael Dougherty (20%)↓
Boulder County DA looks unlikely to have the resources to make a dent in Griswold’s support.

(D) David Seligman (15%)↓
Seligman has hit a wall in the last six months.

(R) Michael Allen (20%)
District Attorney (El Paso, Teller Counties) joined race in mid-January with bland message.

(D) Phil Weiser* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jessie Danielson (50%)↑
Jefferson County State Senator is the clear favorite but isn’t pulling ahead on financial front.

(D) Amanda Gonzalez (20%)↓
Current Jeffco Clerk and Recorder had field to herself in first half of 2025 but didn’t capitalize.

(R) Somebody? (10%)↓
Republicans don’t look like they’ll make any real effort here in 2026.

(D) Jena Griswold* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

STATE TREASURER

(D) Jeff Bridges (60%)↑
State Senator and Chair of the Joint Budget Committee is starting to run away with this one.

(D) Brianna Titone (20%)↓
State Representative from Arvada spent twice as much as she raised in Q4 2025…and she only raised $15k.

(R) Kevin Grantham (20%)↓
Grantham has all of $7k in the bank; he’s only doing enough to remind people that he’s still alive.

(D) Jerry DiTullio (10%)↓
The fat lady has been singing to the Jefferson County Treasurer for a long time now.

(D) John Mikos (10%)↓
Raised more money than DiTullio in last three months of 2025. So, there’s that.

(D) Dave Young* (OFF)
Term-limited in 2026.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (80%)↑
DeGette frequently faces Primary challenges from the left, and they always flame out. This year looks much the same.

(D) Wanda James (10%)↓
Spent more money than she raised in the last three months of 2025.

(D) Milat Kiros (10%)↓
Consultants are still getting paid, but that’s about all there is to brag about here.

(R) Somebody? (2%)
No Republican candidate yet, not that it matters.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
This race was over the day after the 2024 election ended.

(R) Somebody? (2%)
Still no Republican candidate here.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Jeff Hurd* (60%)↑
The “Bread Sandwich” has no real opinions on anything, but he’s running circles around everyone else on campaign front.

(D) Alex Kelloff (30%)↓
Fundraising has fallen off a cliff; needs a strong fundraising quarter to not fall off the radar altogether.

(R) Hope Scheppelman (20%)↓
Former State GOP Vice Chair is hoping to gain some ground through the caucus/assembly process; that’s probably as far as her challenge will go.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (90%)
This is the single most Republican-heavy district in the state; the fact that Boebert isn’t even trying to raise money speaks volumes.

(D) Eileen Laubacher (40%)↑
Navy Rear Admiral and Colorado native has emerged as the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (20%)↓
Outperformed district’s general Republican performance in 2024 but is now caught in an endless “churn and burn” fundraising spiral.

(D) John Padora (5%)
With less than $9k in the bank after 2025, Padora should probably find a different hobby.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Jeff Crank* (53%)↓
His best argument for re-election is that he cast a lot of votes; poor fundraising demonstrates obvious lack of enthusiasm.

(D) Jessica Killin (48%)↑
Killin ended 2025 with more cash-on-hand than Crank, the first time we can recall that a Democrat was ahead of GOP incumbent at this point.

(D) Matt Cavanaugh (20%)↓
Switched voter affiliation to ‘D’ after realizing running as an ‘I’ was pointless. He’s wasting his time.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (95%)
Crow will be here until he decides to do something else.

(R) Somebody? (2%)
Anybody?

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen* (95%)
Pettersen won by 15 points in 2022 and 14 points in 2024. She’s safe.

(R) Amanda Capobianco (2%)
At least Republicans now know the name of the person who won’t beat Pettersen in 2026.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(R) Gabe Evans* (45%)↓
It would take a real effort to be more full of shit. Gabe-ish is the most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country for good reason.

(D) Manny Rutinel (30%)↑
Commerce City lawmaker keeps putting up strong fundraising quarters.

(D) Shannon Bird (30%)↑
The Democratic Primary looks like a two-candidate race.

(D) Evan Munsing (20%)↓
Any Munsing Momentum from a strong initial fundraising quarter has faded; he barely raised more than he spent in Q4 2025.

(R) Adam Derito (10%)
Derito is probably unlikely to be a serious threat to Evans, but his mere existence in this race shows that Gabe is not well-liked in his own party.

(D) Dave Young (OFF)
State Treasurer ended campaign on December 19, 2025.

(D) Amie Baca-Oehlert (OFF)
Bowed out on Halloween 2025.

(D) Yadira Caraveo (OFF)
Former Congresswoman dropped out of race in September 2025.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2024 cycle with a 23-12 advantage and ended in the same place. There’s no path for Republicans here.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent $5.5 million in 2024 and netted ZERO seats. Rinse, repeat.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
The only mystery here is about the final size of a Democratic majority in 2027.

REPUBLICANS (5%)
Republicans are just moving food around their plates in a caucus full of unserious buffoons.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2026 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.