January 05, 2026 01:48 PM UTC

The Unaffiliated Voter Shuffle

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• by: Colorado Pols

Two candidates for higher office in Colorado changed their voter affiliation just before the end of 2025. Neither is likely to benefit much from the switch.

In CO-05 (Colorado Springs), Matt Cavanaugh changed his voter affiliation from “Unaffiliated” to Democrat, where he will now need to win a Primary Election against Democrat Jessica Killin for the right to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Jeff Crank in November. As we noted in October, Cavanaugh had been playing up the silly idea that an “Independent” candidate was better positioned to win in CO-05 because there are more “Unaffiliated” voters in the district than registered Republicans or Democrats.

In a statement announcing his candidacy in October, Cavanaugh said:

“Independent voters represent the majority in the district, and we’re fed up with Washington’s screw-ups and corruption. Because of the broken two-party system, Space Command’s gone, the government’s shut down (and) inflation, costs and political violence are all up.”

So, maybe Cavanaugh is less fed up than other “U” voters than he was in October? More likely, Cavanaugh realized that he was unlikely to be the first “Independent” candidate to win election to Congress in 36 years.

Cavanaugh’s odds of going to Congress in 2026 don’t really improve with this decision, but the upside for Democrats is that they no longer need to worry that he might play the spoiler in a General Election matchup between Crank and Killin.

Meanwhile, longtime candidate for Governor Greg Lopez came to the opposite conclusion as Cavanaugh. Lopez announced that he is abandoning the Republican Party — which briefly allowed him to pretend to be a real Congressman in 2024 — for the ranks of the “Unaffiliated.” As The Colorado Sun reports in its (no pun intended) “Unaffiliated” newsletter:

“Both parties raise money better than they solve problems,” Lopez said in a video announcing his decision. “They divide better than they listen.”

Lopez said he is not changing his values as he leaves the GOP, but rather “changing who I answer to.”

Lopez failed to win the Republican nomination for Governor in both 2018 and 2022, and there was little chance he would fare much better in 2026. Running as an “Unaffiliated” candidate gives Lopez a better chance of getting his name on the General Election ballot, but it doesn’t really improve his chance of actually winning in November.

Much like State Sen. Mark Baisley’s decision to run for U.S. Senate instead of Governor, these decisions are the political equivalent of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Cavanaugh and Lopez will still lose — they’ll just lose with different letters in parenthesis after their names.