Poll: Voters Like Setbacks, School Funding, and Jared Polis

Colorado voters approve of Jared Polis and increased funding for schools.

The Denver Post reports today on new polling results from the University of Colorado’s American Politics Research Lab:

In the first public poll results released on these issues, 58 percent of respondents said they would vote yes for Amendment 73, which would raise taxes on individuals making more than $150,000 a year and corporations. Because it’s a constitutional amendment, it needs 55 percent to pass.

Meanwhile, 52 percent of voters said they support Proposition 112, which would require new oil and gas wells to be at least 2,500 feet away from buildings…

…In the race for governor, Democrat Jared Polis has a 12-point lead over Republican Walker Stapleton, 54 percent to 42 percent.

The Post quotes one of the poll’s authors expressing surprise that Polis holds a 12-point lead over Stapleton, though we’re not sure why. The CU poll states a margin of error of 3.5%, which is right in line with other public polls on the Governor’s race that have shown Polis with a 7-9 point advantage.

The most interesting numbers here are in regard to the ballot measures, which have received much less public polling attention than the candidate horse races. The oil and gas industry has been spending millions upon millions of dollars on its “No on Amendment 12” campaign but apparently have not yet been able to get through to a majority of voters. The industry is having better luck with Amendment 74, which has the support of 63 percent of voters.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is in the 58 percent support for Amendment 73, the school-funding measure that seems to be pretty popular despite limited advertising on its behalf. The CU poll did not ask questions about Proposition 109 and Proposition 110 — the two transportation infrastructure ballot measures — and it will be interesting to see if support for 73 impacts either of these new spending requests.

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12 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

    And if you're unsure of the impact of these amendments & proposals – go to the unbiased evenhanded review of the ballot initiatives.

  2. OpenSpace says:

    John Frank at the Colorado Sun gives a lengthy explainer on why we should really not put too much stock in this particular poll

    https://twitter.com/ByJohnFrank/status/1054410892173967360

    For example:

    The CU folks say the poll is “representative of registered voters.” But it’s not. For ex: If you look deep in the numbers, the smallest group of respondents are “independents” — BUT unaffiliated voters are the largest bloc in Colorado.

    • DavieDavie says:

      Seems like it was actually a "likely" voter weighted poll:

      Of those polled, 37 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 32 percent as Republicans and 26 percent independents. Five percent said they belonged to some other party.

      But the Post article did have this caveat:

      The online survey of 800 registered voters was conducted between Oct. 12 and 17. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The third annual poll commissioned by CU was completed by YouGov, a worldwide polling company.

      Historically, online polls are less accurate than live interviews over the phone. However, You-Gov has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight, a news organization that specializes in covering polls. YouGov accurately predicts outcomes 88 percent of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight.

  3. Gilpin Guy says:

    Anyway you slice it, Walker comes across as a weak candidate.

    I'd like to see if there has been any polling on Amendment 74.  That ones a real stinker.

    • DavieDavie says:

      74 is mentioned in the above poll as well.  Take it with a grain of salt (preferably with a margarita chaser)

      As for Colorado ballot measures, which have not received much attention in public polls this cycle, the CU poll finds solid support for Amendment 74, which would make property owners eligible for compensation if a government law or regulation reduces the fair market value of their property, a practice that some refer to as “takings” of property.

      The poll shows 63 percent support for the amendment, with 37 percent in opposition.

  4. DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

    So if both pass then land owners are compensated for takings and setback are increased to 2,500 feet. The interesting question then is which takes effect first.

    If they're simultaneous, does the increase count as a taking under the new rule. Or is it only changes after, not simultaneous?

  5. 74 comes down to: a district passes new well limits, and property owners in the district sue because they no longer have potential revenue from Nestlé. On new, better building codes are passed that include remodels; current owners lose money from both perceived obsolescence and required future expenses.

    Stupid stupid amendment.

    • Meiner49erMeiner49er says:

      74 is not just stupid, it's paralyzing. The intent is different, but I expect it to do to local governments what TABOR did on the state level. If I could waive a magic wand to pass or block anyone amendment, it would be to block 74.

       

      • DavieDavie says:

        Paralysis is the goal of the A74 proponents.  Punitive payback as well.  Oregon made the same mistake in 2004, and it took them 3 years to undo most of the damage.  Unfortunately for us, we're putting it into the constitution which, like TABOR, might not be possible to unwind.

        The Denver Post has a good explainer today that hopefully will get enough attention that it will knock back those poll numbers.

  6. JohnInDenverJohnInDenver says:

    thankfully, more engaged and more long-term voters will be the most likely to vote. And the A74 arguments have added up to a consistent "no" from a WIDE range of voices.

    Anyone thinking beyond a direct and short term calculation of "what's in it for me" will vote NO.

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