NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2022 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.
LAST UPDATE: October 4, 2022
(R) Joe O’Dea (20%)↓
There’s still no hint of significant national money coming to help O’Dea, and his campaign doesn’t have the resources to raise his name ID enough with just a few weeks left to go.
(D) Jared Polis* (95%)↑
Polis probably won’t win by 17 points in November — though two different polls have recently shown him with a 17-point advantage — but something unprecedented would have to happen for Polis to be in any real trouble.
(ACN) Danielle Neuschwanger (1%)
Once a Republican candidate, Neuschwanger is now the official gubernatorial candidate for the American Constitution Party. She has no chance of winning, though her candidacy could pull votes from Ganahl.
(D) Phil Weiser* (75%)↑
Weiser continues to raise bucketloads of money for his re-election and isn’t making any mistakes on the campaign trail.
(R) John Kellner (25%)↓
Kellner said he agrees with the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, which was a terrible thing to say out loud in a state that is overwhelmingly pro-choice. Kellner is getting a little help from RAGA, but it won’t likely be enough.
(U) Stanley Thorne (5%)
Thorne was nominated at the State GOP Assembly, but it turns out he wasn’t actually a registered Republican in Colorado. Now he’s running for AG as an “Unaffiliated” candidate.
SECRETARY OF STATE
(D) Jena Griswold* (60%)
Griswold has considerably more resources for her campaign than Anderson.
(R) Pam Anderson (40%)
Anderson has clearly been counting on outside money to promote her candidacy, but so far it hasn’t materialized.
(D) Diana DeGette* (100%)
DeGette easily dispatched another silly Primary challenger and will cruise to re-election.
(D) Joe Neguse* (100%)
Put it this way: We’re not even bothering to learn the name of his GOP opponent.
CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Lauren Boebert* (60%)↓
This could be a real race in the final month of the campaign.
(D) Adam Frisch (40%)↑
New polling suggests Frisch has a real shot at beating Boebert. The history of this district gives us pause, but there is a downward trend happening for Republicans.
CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (90%)↑
Buck has done a hard pander with right-wing voters, which should be enough to ensure his re-election. The GOP voter registration advantage is overwhelming in this district.
(D) Ike McCorkle (10%)
District boundaries didn’t change enough to make this race any different for McCorkle than it was in 2020.
CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(D) David Torres (10%)
If Lamborn was going to lose, it would have been in a Republican Primary. This district leans too far to the right to be competitive in November.
(D) Jason Crow* (100%)
Crow is very popular and is an excellent campaigner. This is a lock.
(R) Steven Monahan (0%)
Who is he? It doesn’t matter.
CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Brittany Pettersen (75%)↑
National groups aren’t spending in this race on either side, which indicates that Pettersen is considered to be fairly safe.
(R) Erik Aadland (25%)↓
No money, no message, and no apparent interest in things like “facts.”
(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Perlmutter is hanging it up after a long career in Congress.
CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)
(D) Yadira Caraveo (50%)↑
Caraveo gets a slight edge because the electorate seems to be moving left following the SCOTUS decision to make abortion illegal, but this is the only place in Colorado where sizable amounts of national money is being spent.
(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (50%)↓
The Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade probably changed this race more than any other top contest in Colorado.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
Democrats took control of the State Senate in 2018 and picked up another seat in 2020. State Sen. Kevin Priola’s recent switch to the Democratic Party provides more breathing room.
Of every potential outcome in 2022, this is the one in which Republicans have the best chance of succeeding…and even then it’s a long uphill battle.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Democrats earned their biggest House majority in decades in 2018, then kept things intact in 2020. There’s virtually no chance Republicans could flip enough seats in 2022.
Capturing the majority here would be a multi-cycle task for the GOP. Colorado has changed significantly since Republicans last held a majority in the State House.
The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2022 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information.
Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.