The Big Line: 2022

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2022 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: January 19, 2022

 

U.S. SENATE

(D) Michael Bennet* (70%)↑
Bennet is the first U.S. Senator from Colorado to seek a third term in office since Gordon Allott in 1966 and Peter Dominick in 1974.

(R) Eli Bremer (20%)
If you’re looking for “inspiring,” you came to the wrong place.

(R) Ron Hanks (20%)
Is Hanks a better or worse candidate than Bremer? Sure.

(R) Gino Campana (10%)
This developer and former Ft. Collins City Council member doesn’t have much to say.

(R) Deborah Flora (10%)
Honestly, your guess is as good as ours at this point.

(R) Joe O’Dea (10%)
Unknown Denver businessperson will write checks to GOP consultant Josh Penry for a few months.

(R) Peter Yu (1%)
Yu is one of those people who just likes telling others that he is a candidate for office.

 

(R) Erik Aadland (OFF)
Now running in CO-07 instead of U.S. Senate race. 

 


GOVERNOR

(D) Jared Polis* (80%)↑
Polis was elected by an 11-point margin in 2018. Republicans don’t have anybody who could conceivably challenge him for re-election.

(R) Hiedi Heidi Ganahl (10%)↓
Ganahl’s campaign is teetering on the edge of oblivion.

(R) Greg Lopez (10%)
Lopez ran for Governor in 2018 and basically just kept going after getting pummeled in a Republican Primary.

(R) Danielle Neuschwanger (5%)
Cheap knockoff version of Lauren Boebert might appeal to a few Republicans.

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Phil Weiser* (70%)↑
Weiser turned a lot of heads as a first-time candidate in 2018. He’ll be even better in 2022.

(R) John Kellner (5%)↓
Rumor has it that Kellner is unlikely to jump into the race might have changed his mind (again) and could be the GOP candidate. There’s really nobody else.

 

 


STATE TREASURER

(D) Dave Young* (60%)
Young’s biggest task might be in convincing Democrats to pay attention here.

(R) Lang Sias (30%)
Lang is officially in the race, for some reason. His track record is…not good.

 


SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jena Griswold* (70%)↑
Griswold was the biggest surprise of the 2018 cycle. Implosion of Mesa County Clerk and Recorder Tina Peters makes her “safe elections” narrative an easy sell.

(R) Pam Anderson (30%)
Anderson, to her credit, says openly that the 2020 election was fair and secure. But this kind of logic is how you lose a Republican Primary these days.

 

 

(R) Rose Pugliese (OUT)
Pugliese seemed to be the safe bet to be the GOP nominee here, but she apparently changed her mind.

 

 


CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
DeGette is now longest-serving federal elected official in Colorado history.

 


CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)↑
Redistricting makes Neguse a virtual lock to win re-election in 2022.

 

 


CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (60%)↓
Boebert’s re-election odds improved with redistricting, but now she has a real Primary challenger.

(R) Don Coram (30%)↑
Coram is in the race…and he’s already proving perplexing for Boebert.

(D) Sol Sandoval (20%)↑
With Donovan out (see below), Sandoval might be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

(D) Don Valdez (20%)↑
State Representative making another go after a brief bid in 2020.

(R) Marina Zimmerman (10%)
It’s still too soon to tell how serious to take Zimmerman’s candidacy.

 

(D) Kerry Donovan (OFF)
Donovan is out after new district lines were finalized.

 


CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
The man who was the 2010 GOP nominee for U.S. Senate found his ceiling long ago.

(D) Ike McCorkle (30%)
McCorkle is running again after losing handily to Buck in 2020. Rinse, repeat.

 


CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (70%)↓
Ruh-roh. Lawsuit from former staffer could be the beginning of the end for unremarkable Lamborn.

(R) Dave Williams (30%)
Colorado Springs state lawmaker thinks 2022 is finally the time to oust Lamborn, who has held this seat since 2006.

 


 

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)↑
New district lines in CO-06 make Crow virtually unbeatable.

 

(R) Lora Thomas (OFF)
Douglas County Commissioner is running for sheriff instead.

 


 

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen (70%)
With Perlmutter deciding to retire, Pettersen is the likely choice here.

(R) Laurel Imer (10%)
Fun fact that tells you everything you need to know: Imer held her campaign kickoff event at a biker bar underneath a highway.

(R) Erik Aadland (10%)
Switched gears in December; instead of not winning the race for U.S. Senate, the little-known Aadland will focus his attention on not winning in CO-07.

 

(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Perlmutter is hanging it up after a long career in Congress.

 


CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(D) Yadira Caraveo (40%)
State Rep. from Adams County was the first candidate to formally enter the race.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (30%)
Kirkmeyer is the early favorite to win the Republican nomination after getting endorsement from Koch-funded “Americans for Prosperity.”

(D) Charles “Chaz” Tedesco (30%)
Getting a lot of labor union support and has some notable backing from the left flank.

(R) Lori Saine (20%)
Former state lawmaker and now Weld County Commissioner has a very obvious strategy: Convince Republican voters that she is the craziest person in the race.

(R) Jan Kulmann (20%)
Thornton Mayor could make things interesting if she can attract oil and gas money.

(R) Jewels Gray (10%)↓
Gray is going to have a hard time winning a Primary against several more well-known Republican names.

(D) Johnny Humphrey (5%)
We don’t have anything to tell you about this person.

(R) Kevin Priola (5%)↓
State Senator hasn’t made it official that he isn’t running, but let’s be honest: He isn’t running.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats took control of the State Senate in 2018 and picked up another seat in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
The State Senate is once again the best chance for Republicans to make gains in 2022, but only because things look so bleak everywhere else.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
Democrats earned their biggest House majority in decades in 2018, then kept things intact in 2020. There’s virtually no chance Republicans could flip enough seats in 2022.

REPUBLICANS (10%)
Capturing the majority here would be a multi-cycle task for the GOP. Colorado has changed significantly since Republicans last held a majority in the State House.

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2022 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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