The Big Line: 2022

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2022 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: October 15, 2021

 

U.S. SENATE

(D) Michael Bennet* (70%)↑
Bennet would be the first U.S. Senator from Colorado to seek a third term in office since Gordon Allott in 1966.

(R) Eli Bremer (20%)
Bremer is officially running in 2022. So, there’s that.

(R) Ron Hanks (20%)
Is Hanks a better or worse candidate than Bremer? Sure.

(R) Gino Campana (10%)
This developer and former Ft. Collins City Council member is officially in the race!

(R) Deborah Flora (10%)
Honestly, your guess is as good as ours at this point.

(R) Joe O’Dea (10%)
Unknown Denver businessperson will write checks to GOP consultant Josh Penry for a few months.

(R) Erik Aadland (5%)
He’s only been a registered Republican voter in Colorado for a few months, but he officially filed to run for U.S. Senate.

(R) Peter Yu (1%)
Yu is one of those people who just likes being a candidate for something.

 

 


GOVERNOR

(D) Jared Polis* (80%)↑
Polis was elected by an 11-point margin in 2018. In 2020, Joe Biden carried Colorado by 13 points and John Hickenlooper won a Senate race by about 10. There’s little reason to think Polis won’t cruise to another term in 2022.

(R) Heidi Ganahl (10%)↓
There’s no way to sugarcoat this: Ganahl is running the worst gubernatorial campaign in the entire country.

(R) Greg Lopez (10%)
Lopez may have found his strongest argument for Republican voters: I’m NOT Heidi Ganahl.

 

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Phil Weiser* (70%)↑
Weiser turned a lot of heads as a first-time candidate in 2018. He’ll be even better in 2022.

(R) Mark Waller (20%)
Former State lawmaker from Colorado Springs is taking a look at being the GOP’s sacrificial lamb in this race.

 


STATE TREASURER

(D) Dave Young* (60%)
Young’s biggest task might be in convincing Democrats to pay attention here.

(R) Lang Sias (10%)
Republicans may have talked Sias into running again. His track record is…not good.

 


SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jena Griswold* (70%)↑
Griswold was the biggest surprise of the 2018 cycle. She’ll be a top target for Republicans in 2022…if they can find someone to run against her.

(R) Angela Meyers (10%)
Term-limited Larimer County Clerk and Recorder seems to be the most likely potential Republican candidate in this race.

 

(R) Rose Pugliese (OUT)
Pugliese seemed to be the safe bet to be the GOP nominee here, but she apparently changed her mind.

 

 


CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
DeGette is now longest-serving federal elected official in Colorado history.

 


CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)↑
Redistricting makes Neguse a virtual lock to win re-election in 2022.

(R) Casper Stockham (5%)
We don’t have any reason to think Stockham might run here, but he’s already failed in CO-01, CO-06, and CO-07, so maybe he’ll try to complete the set in Democratically-held districts.

 


CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (75%)↑
Boebert’s re-election odds improved with redistricting.

(D) Sol Sandoval (20%)↑
With Donovan likely out (see below), Sandoval might be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

(D) Don Valdez (20%)↑
State Representative making another go after a brief bid in 2020.

(R) Marina Zimmerman (10%)
It’s too soon to tell how serious to take Zimmerman’s candidacy.

(D) Kerry Donovan (10%)↓
Donovan has halted her fundraising efforts after redistricting delivered some sobering news about her 2022 chances.

 


CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck announced that he is running for re-election, but we still wouldn’t be surprised if he decided to do something else instead.

(D) Ike McCorkle (30%)
McCorkle is running again after losing handily to Buck in 2020. The 2022 election likely won’t prove much different.

 


CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (80%)↓
Ruh-roh. Lawsuit from former staffer could be the beginning of the end for unremarkable Lamborn.

 


 

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)↑
New district lines in CO-06 make Crow virtually unbeatable.

(R) Lora Thomas (10%)↓
Douglas County Commissioner thinks she has a shot after winning re-election in 2020 in a solid red county. She’s wrong.

 


 

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Redistricting changed the look of CO-07 significantly, but it’s still Perlmutter’s seat to lose.

(R) Laurel Imer (10%)
Redistricting would have to make massive changes to CO-07 for Imer to have even a chance at beating Perlmutter. It IS different now, but not enough for Imer to be competitive.

 


CO-08 (¯\_(ツ)_/¯ )

(D) Yadira Caraveo (40%)
State Rep. from Adams County is first candidate to formally enter the race.

(R) Kevin Priola (40%)
State Senator might be best GOP candidate for 2022…if he can win a Primary Election.

(D) Charles “Chaz” Tedesco (20%)
Might have trouble catching up to Caraveo, who got an early start here.

(R) Jewels Gray (20%)
Doesn’t seem like a particularly serious campaign, but she’s the only confirmed Republican candidate thus far.

(R) Barbara Kirkmeyer (20%)
State Senator and former Weld County Commissioner rumored to be interested.

(R) Lori Saine (20%)
Former state lawmaker is now a Weld County Commissioner.

 

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats took control of the State Senate in 2018 and picked up another seat in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
The State Senate is once again the best chance for Republicans to make gains in 2022, but only because things look so bleak everywhere else.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
Democrats earned their biggest House majority in decades in 2018, then kept things intact in 2020. There’s virtually no chance Republicans could flip enough seats in 2022.

REPUBLICANS (10%)
Capturing the majority here would be a multi-cycle task for the GOP. Colorado has changed significantly since Republicans last held a majority in the State House.

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2022 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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