NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2024 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.
LAST UPDATE: December 7, 2023
PRESIDENT (TO WIN COLORADO)
(D) Joe Biden* (80%)
We’re not speculating on the national results here; Biden is NOT going to fail to carry Colorado.
(R) Donald Trump (20%)↓
Trump lost Colorado in 5 points in 2016 and 14 points in 2020. That’s the wrong direction for success in 2024.
(D) Diana DeGette* (90%)
DeGette only has to worry about a potential Democratic Primary. While some have tried in recent cycles, nobody has been able to sustain a real challenge.
(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse is safe here.
CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(D) Adam Frisch (40%)↑
Frisch is raising a ton of money while Boebert implodes. His bigger concern now might be whether Hurd can beat Boebert in a Republican Primary.
(R) Lauren Boebert* (40%)↓
The #Beetlebert scandal is snowballing into deeper problems for Boebert.
(R) Jeff Hurd (30%)↑
We still don’t know much about Jeff Hurd, but he’s racking up endorsements and raising money simply by being “Not Boebert.”
(D) Anna Stout (5%)↓
Grand Junction Mayor turned in a dud of a fundraising quarter that leaves her with little time to become competitive.
(L) James Wiley (2%)
Can a Libertarian candidate win this race? Of course not, but Wiley could very well siphon votes from the eventual Republican nominee.
CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Jerry Sonnenberg (15%)↑
From what we’ve heard, national Republicans might prefer the former State Senator here.
(R) Richard Holtorf (10%)
State Rep. from Akron is officially running.
(R) Deborah Flora (10%)
Failed 2022 GOP Senate candidate and radio host was first to officially announce.
(R) Ted Harvey (10%)
Former State Senator and ScamPAC enthusiast will at least collect campaign cash for awhile.
(R) Mike Lynch (10%)
State House Minority Leader reportedly plans to run.
(R) Heidi Ganahl (10%)
The GOP gubernatorial nominee in 2022 has already talked to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) about a potential campaign.
(R) Lora Thomas (10%)
Unpopular Douglas County Commissioner has been eyeing this seat for awhile and has commissioned a poll.
(R) Gino Campana (10%)
Failed 2022 U.S. Senate candidate could self-fund a late bid.
(R) Trent Leisy (5%)
The guy with the “MAGA KING” hat had a better chance running against Buck than he does in a crowded GOP Primary field.
(R) Justin Schreiber (3%)
We haven’t the slightest idea.
(D) Ike McCorkle (1%)
McCorkle is officially running for the Democratic nomination for the third consecutive cycle. He can’t win in a General Election.
(R) Ken Buck* (OFF)
Buck made it official on Nov. 1: He won’t seek re-election in 2024.
(R) George Brauchler (OFF)
Said publicly that he’s not running, probably because he can’t win.
(R) Pat Neville (OFF)
Former State House Minority Leader won’t run against his friend Harvey.
CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)
Lamborn is a political zombie who seemingly can’t be killed, even in a Republican Primary. We don’t understand it, but he’s been safe since first winning this seat in 2006.
(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Redistricting made CO-06 a very safe Democratic seat for the popular and well-respected Crow. He’ll be here until he decides to do something else.
CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Brittany Pettersen (85%)↑
Pettersen’s 15-point victory in 2022 has thus far discouraged a serious challenge from Republicans in 2024. The GOP won’t likely even bother with a real fight here.
(U) Ron Tupa (1%)
Longtime Boulder Democrat is running as an “Unaffiliated” candidate in a district that is nowhere near his current residence. Raising $6,000 in three months is a pretty good signal that you should be doing something else.
CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)
(D) Yadira Caraveo (60%)↑
Things can change quickly in a new congressional district, as we saw in CO-07 in the early aughts, but Caraveo is doing everything right. She hasn’t missed a single vote in Congress and is hitting her fundraising markers.
(R) Gabe Evans (30%)↓
Freshman State Representative would be the first Republican state lawmaker to win a race for higher office since 2010. He’s going to need to raise more than the $100k in his first fundraising quarter to have any hope.
(R) Scott James (30%)↓
Weld County Commissioner is a complete goofball, but he outraised Evans.
(R) Joe O’Dea (10%)
Disastrous 2022 U.S. Senate candidate is listening to the siren call of consultants like Josh Penry and may dump more of his money to run in a district that is nowhere near his current residence.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
Democrats started 2022 with a 20-15 majority and ended with a 23-12 advantage. It’s hard to see how they could do much better just because of simple math, but Colorado Republicans always find a way to screw up further.
Republicans spent a record amount of money in 2022 and ended up losing seats. Good luck instilling confidence with donors in 2024.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
Democrats held an unprecedented 41-24 advantage after 2020. Now that majority is 46-19. At this rate, there will be zero Republicans in the State House by 2030 [note: we did not check this math].
There is virtually no chance that Republicans could retake the House in 2024. There’s a slim chance they could be back in the majority in 2034.
The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2024 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.
And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils.
Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.
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