President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Biden*

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%↓

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

(R) Ron Hanks

40%

30%

20%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) J. Sonnenberg (R) Lauren Boebert (R) Ted Harvey

15% 10%↓ 10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Dave Williams

(R) Doug Bruce

(R) Bob Gardner

20%

20%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

90%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) Brittany Pettersen

85%↑

 

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

(R) Janak Joshi

60%↑

40%↑

20%↑

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

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The Big Line: 2024

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2024 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: February 27, 2024

 

PRESIDENT (TO WIN COLORADO)

(D) Joe Biden* (80%)
Remember, this is about who is most likely to carry Colorado. Biden is a near lock for that.

(R) Donald Trump (20%)↓
Trump lost Colorado in 5 points in 2016 and 14 points in 2020. He’s not going to make any real effort here in 2024.

 


CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (90%)
DeGette only has to worry about a potential Democratic Primary. While some have tried in recent cycles, nobody has been able to sustain a real challenge.

 

 


CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse is safe here.

 

 


CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(D) Adam Frisch (40%)
Frisch is raising a ton of money, but his campaign was based on being the anti-Boebert. Now that she’s not going to be on the ballot, can he pivot with a different message?

(R) Jeff Hurd (30%)
Hurd has been racking up endorsements and raising money simply by being “Not Boebert.” He has a similar problem to Frisch in that his main message was “I’m not Boebert.”

(R) Ron Hanks (20%)
Failed 2022 Senate candidate says he’s running here, but he might also end up in CO-05.

(R) Stephen Varela (5%)↓
You can go ahead and stick a fork in Varela after this Denver Post story.

(L) James Wiley (2%)
Can a Libertarian candidate win this race? Of course not, but Wiley could very well siphon votes from the eventual Republican nominee.

 

(R) Lauren Boebert (OFF)
Boebert is switching districts in a desperate attempt to remain in Congress.

(D) Anna Stout (OFF)
Grand Junction Mayor wisely dropped out in late January.

 


CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Jerry Sonnenberg (15%)↑
From what we’ve heard, national Republicans might prefer the former State Senator here.

(R) Lauren Boebert (10%)↓
Boebert is switching districts because she decided she couldn’t win re-election in CO-03, but she isn’t finding many supporters in CO-04.

(R) Ted Harvey (10%)
Former State Senator and ScamPAC enthusiast will at least collect campaign cash for awhile…and hasn’t made Holtorf or Lynch-level mistakes.

(R) Richard Holtorf (10%)↓
State Rep. from Akron lit himself on fire with bizarre speech at State Capitol about his college girlfriend’s abortion.

(R) Mike Lynch (10%)↓
State House Minority Leader is facing internal dissention at the State Capitol after it was revealed that he was arrested for driving drunk, racing a state trooper, and possessing a gun. But in today’s Republican Party, maybe these things are all considered to be positive news.

(R) Deborah Flora (10%)↓
Failed 2022 GOP Senate candidate and radio host was first to officially announce, but what’s her pitch?

(R) Trent Leisy (5%)
The guy with the “MAGA KING” hat had a better chance running against Buck than he does in a crowded GOP Primary field.

(R) Justin Schreiber (3%)
We haven’t the slightest idea.

(D) Ike McCorkle (1%)
McCorkle is officially running for the Democratic nomination for the third consecutive cycle. He can’t win in a General Election.

 

(R) Ken Buck* (OFF)
Buck made it official on Nov. 1: He won’t seek re-election in 2024.

(R) Heidi Ganahl (OFF)
The 2022 GOP nominee for Governor had talked to the NRCC about a potential campaign but ultimately decided not to run.

(R) George Brauchler (OFF)
Said publicly that he’s not running, probably because he can’t win.

(R) Pat Neville (OFF)
Former State House Minority Leader won’t run against his friend Harvey.

(R) Lora Thomas (OFF)
Douglas County Commissioner commissioned a poll that showed her to be wildly unpopular, so she’s running for state legislature (HD-43) instead.

 


CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Dave Williams (20%)
State Republican Party Chair lost to Lamborn in 2022. We’d expect him to run again now.

(R) Doug Bruce (20%)
TABOR daddy sounds like he’s going to run to replace the old Doug.

(R) Bob Gardner (20%)
Longtime state lawmaker known for his never-ending speeches is taking his shot.

(R) Jeff Crank (20%)
Talk radio host lost to Lamborn in both 2006 and 2008. Third time’s the charm!

 

(R) Doug Lamborn* (OFF)
Lamborn surprised most observers by announcing he won’t seek re-election in 2024.

(R) Rose Pugliese (OFF)
New House Minority Leader says she’s out.

(R) Wayne Williams (OFF)
Decided not to run and endorsed Crank instead.

(R) Paul Lundeen (OFF)
State Senate Minority Leader would have needed to get moving by now.

 


CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Redistricting made CO-06 a very safe Democratic seat for the popular and well-respected Crow. He’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

 

 


CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen (85%)↑
Pettersen’s 15-point victory in 2022 has thus far discouraged a serious challenge from Republicans in 2024. The GOP won’t likely even bother with a real fight here.

(U) Ron Tupa (1%)
Longtime Boulder Democrat is running as an “Unaffiliated” candidate in a district that is nowhere near his current residence. Raising $6,000 in three months is a pretty good signal that you should be doing something else.

 


CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(D) Yadira Caraveo (60%)↑
Caraveo is doing everything right. She hasn’t missed a single vote in Congress and is crushing her fundraising goals.

(R) Gabe Evans (40%)↑
Evans earned the nickname “Gabe-ish” after silly answer at first CO-04 debate.

(R) Janak Joshi (20%)↑
Doctor Nick returns! Former state lawmaker has a (slightly) better chance of winning now that James is out.

 

(R) Scott James (OFF)
Weld County Commissioner was struggling to raise money and interest in his campaign, so he pulled the plug on Feb. 27.

(R) Joe O’Dea (OFF)
Hasn’t made it official that he won’t run, but all signs point to NO.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2022 with a 20-15 majority and ended with a 23-12 advantage. It’s hard to see how they could do much better just because of simple math, but Colorado Republicans always find a way to screw up further.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent a record amount of money in 2022 and ended up losing seats. Good luck instilling confidence with donors in 2024.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
Democrats held an unprecedented 41-24 advantage after 2020. Now that majority is 46-19. At this rate, there will be zero Republicans in the State House by 2030 [note: we did not check this math].

REPUBLICANS (5%)
There is virtually no chance that Republicans could retake the House in 2024. There’s a slim chance they could be back in the majority in 2034.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2024 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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