The Big Line: 2024

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2024 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: April 15, 2024

PRESIDENT (TO WIN COLORADO)

(D) Joe Biden* (80%)
Remember, this is about who is most likely to carry Colorado. Biden is a near lock for that.

(R) Donald Trump (20%)↓
Trump lost Colorado in 5 points in 2016 and 14 points in 2020. He’s not going to make any real effort here in 2024.

CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (90%)
DeGette only has to worry about a potential Democratic Primary. While some have tried in recent cycles, nobody has been able to sustain a real challenge.

CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse is safe here.

CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(D) Adam Frisch (40%)
Frisch is raising a ton of money, but his campaign was based on being the anti-Boebert. Now that she’s not going to be on the ballot, can he pivot with a different message?

(R) Jeff Hurd (30%)
Hurd had been picking up endorsements and raising money simply by being “Not Boebert.” He has a similar problem to Frisch in that his main message was “I’m not Boebert.”

(R) Ron Hanks (20%)↑
Hanks is on the ballot! Can he get enough votes by just sending emails to people?

(R) Stephen Varela (20%)↑
This Denver Post story is still brutal for Varela, but he did make top line on the ballot via the assembly process.

(R) Curtis McCracken (2%)
Who is this? We couldn’t tell you, but he did collect enough petition signatures to make the ballot.

(L) James Wiley (2%)
Can a Libertarian candidate win this race? Of course not, but Wiley could very well siphon votes from the eventual Republican nominee.

(R) Lauren Boebert (OFF)
Boebert is switching districts in a desperate attempt to remain in Congress.

(D) Anna Stout (OFF)
Grand Junction Mayor wisely dropped out in late January.

CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Lauren Boebert (30%)↑
Boebert got a YUGE boost when Donald Trump endorsed her candidacy and another victory when Greg Lopez won the GOP nomination for the Special Election in CO-04.

(R) Deborah Flora (15%)↑
Failed 2022 GOP Senate candidate qualified for the Primary ballot via the petition process and hopes Douglas County can carry her in June.

(R) Jerry Sonnenberg (10%)↓
The Special Election process was basically set up for Sonnenberg to get a boost…and then he went and laid an egg.

(R) Richard Holtorf (10%)↓
State Rep. from Akron lit himself on fire with bizarre speech at State Capitol about his college girlfriend’s abortion and has demonstrated little support since.

(R) Mike Lynch (10%)↓
Former State House Minority Leader is all over the place on key issues and is unlikely to move the needle if he makes the ballot.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (5%)
Making the Special Election ballot probably gives her an advantage in a Democratic Primary, though no Democrat has a real shot in November.

(D) John Padora (1%)
Second-place finisher for Special Election nomination.

(D) Ike McCorkle (1%)
McCorkle is seeking the Democratic nomination for the third consecutive cycle.

(R) Ken Buck* (OFF)
Buck made it official on Nov. 1: He won’t seek re-election in 2024.

(R) Trent Leisy (OFF)
The “MAGA KING” dropped out to run for the legislative seat being vacated by Mike Lynch.

(R) Ted Harvey (OFF)
Failed to make the ballot through the assembly process (did not collect petitions).

CO-04 (SPECIAL ELECTION)

*Click here for more on the Special Election

(R) Greg Lopez (90%)
Lopez is a truly awful candidate. Fortunately for him, CO-04 is the most Republican-heavy district in Colorado.

(D) Trisha Calvarese (10%)
Douglas County resident handily won the Democratic nomination for the Special Election. Still, voter demographics make it difficult for her to win in June.

CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Dave Williams (50%)↓
State Republican Party Chair lost to Lamborn in 2022 and is using State GOP resources in his 2024 effort.

(R) Jeff Crank (50%)↑
Crank benefits from Gardner failing to make ballot; two-way race gives him stronger argument against Williams.

(R) Doug Lamborn* (OFF)
Lamborn surprised most observers by announcing he won’t seek re-election in 2024.

(R) Doug Bruce (OFF)
Failed to make the Primary ballot via the assembly process, so he’s done.

(R) Bob Gardner (OFF)
Failed to make ballot via assembly and petition process.

CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Redistricting made CO-06 a very safe Democratic seat for the popular and well-respected Crow. He’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Brittany Pettersen (90%)↑
Pettersen’s 15-point victory in 2022 has thus far discouraged a serious challenge from Republicans in 2024. The GOP won’t likely even bother with a real fight here.

(U) Ron Tupa (1%)
Longtime Boulder Democrat is running as an “Unaffiliated” candidate in a district that is nowhere near his current residence. Raising $6,000 in three months is a pretty good signal that you should be doing something else.

CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)

(D) Yadira Caraveo (60%)↑
Caraveo is doing everything right. She hasn’t missed a single vote in Congress and is crushing her fundraising goals.

(R) Gabe Evans (35%)↓
Evans earned the nickname “Gabe-ish” after silly answer at first CO-04 debate, but he only has one other Republican to beat now.

(R) Janak Joshi (30%)↑
Doctor Nick returns! Former state lawmaker made the ballot via the assembly process.

(L) Eric Joss (1%)
Libertarian candidate can’t win here, but could very well make the difference in a General Election.

(R) Scott James (OFF)
Weld County Commissioner was struggling to raise money and interest in his campaign, so he pulled the plug on Feb. 27.

(R) Joe O’Dea (OFF)
Hasn’t made it official that he won’t run, but all signs point to NO.

STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats started 2022 with a 20-15 majority and ended with a 23-12 advantage. It’s hard to see how they could do much better just because of simple math, but Colorado Republicans always find a way to screw up further.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans spent a record amount of money in 2022 and ended up losing seats. Good luck instilling confidence with donors in 2024.

STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (95%)
Democrats held an unprecedented 41-24 advantage after 2020. Now that majority is 46-19. At this rate, there will be zero Republicans in the State House by 2030 [note: we did not check this math].

REPUBLICANS (5%)
There is virtually no chance that Republicans could retake the House in 2024. There’s a slim chance they could be back in the majority in 2034.

The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2024 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.

And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.