NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2024 General Election in Colorado. Numbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.
*Indicates incumbent
LAST UPDATE: September 18, 2023
PRESIDENT (TO WIN COLORADO)
(D) Joe Biden* (80%)
Recent Bluenamis in Colorado make the state fairly safe for a Democrat in 2024.
(R) Donald Trump (20%)↓
Trump lost Colorado in 2016 and 2020. If he’s the Republican nominee in 2024, he’ll lose here again.
CO-01 (DENVER)
(D) Diana DeGette* (80%)
DeGette only has to worry about a potential Democratic Primary. While some have tried in recent cycles, nobody has been able to sustain a real challenge.
CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)
(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse is safe here.
CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)
(R) Lauren Boebert* (40%)↓
A Republican incumbent should be at the top of this list without question given the makeup of the district. After #Beetlebert scandal, Boebert is close to losing frontrunner status.
(D) Adam Frisch (40%)
Frisch continues to build 2024 momentum after losing to Boebert by just 546 votes in 2022. In addition to strong polling numbers, Frisch outraised Boebert by nearly $1 million in the first quarter of 2023 and continues to raise big bucks.
(R) Jeffery Hurd (20%)
Hurd isn’t a well-known name, but he has some other well-known names lining up in support. If nothing else he’s going to drain resources from Boebert.
(D) Anna Stout (10%)↓
Grand Junction Mayor has a good story to tell but is getting started kind of late here (August 2023); Frisch has already raised many millions of dollars.
(L) Mark Ellworth, Jr. (2%)
Libertarian candidate almost certainly can’t win, but his presence on the ballot could absolutely impact the outcome in November 2024.
CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)
(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck is vulnerable to a real Primary challenger after years of accomplishing nothing and fighting obscure partisan battles. We wouldn’t be shocked if he retired before 2024.
(D) Ike McCorkle (10%)
McCorkle is officially running for the Democratic nomination for the third consecutive cycle. He hasn’t come close to winning before, so there’s little reason to believe this will end differently in 2024.
CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)
(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)
Lamborn is a political zombie who seemingly can’t be killed, even in a Republican Primary. We don’t understand it, but he’s been safe since first winning this seat in 2006.
CO-06 (AURORA)
(D) Jason Crow* (90%)
Redistricting made CO-06 a very safe Democratic seat for the popular and well-respected Crow. He’ll likely be here until he decides to do something else.
CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)
(D) Brittany Pettersen (80%)
Redistricting changed the makeup of a district that was represented for years by Ed Perlmutter, but Pettersen’s 15-point victory in 2022 should dissuade a serious challenge from Republicans.
(U) Ron Tupa (1%)
Longtime Boulder Democrat is running as an “Unaffiliated” candidate in a district that is nowhere near his current residence. This is the very definition of “lost cause.”
CO-08 (NORTHERN COLORADO)
(D) Yadira Caraveo (60%)
Things can change quickly in a new congressional district, as we saw in CO-07 in the early aughts, but Republicans will need a good candidate first.
(R) Gabe Evans (30%)
Freshman State Representative wants to move on up. He’d be the first Republican state lawmaker to win a race for higher office since 2010.
(R) Scott James (30%)
Weld County Commissioner with a big closet full of skeletons.
STATE SENATE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (80%)
In every recent cycle, we say that Democrats probably can’t do much to improve their majority…and then they win another seat or two. Democrats started 2022 with a 20-15 majority and ended with a 23-12 advantage.
REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republicans could have retaken the majority in 2022 by flipping just four seats. After spending a record amount of money, the GOP is now even further behind.
STATE HOUSE MAJORITY
DEMOCRATS (90%)
Democrats held an unprecedented 41-24 advantage after 2020. Now that majority is 46-19. At this rate, there will be zero Republicans in the State House by 2030 [note: we did not check this math].
REPUBLICANS (10%)
In 2022, we wrote here that capturing the majority would be a multi-cycle task for Republicans. After devastating election losses, this might be more of a multi-decade problem.
The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2024 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a GENERAL ELECTION based on inside information and our analysis of that information.
And yes, we are aware that our percentages don’t always add up to 100. The “Big Line” attempts to estimate odds in a General Election; when there are multiple candidates running in a Primary Election, we’re comparing apples to anvils.
Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.
