The Big Line: 2022

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2022 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

*Indicates incumbent

LAST UPDATE: September 14, 2021

 

U.S. SENATE

(D) Michael Bennet* (70%)↑
Bennet would be the first U.S. Senator from Colorado to seek a third term in office since Gordon Allott in 1966.

(R) Eli Bremer (20%)
Bremer is officially running in 2022. So, there’s that.

(R) Gino Campana (10%)
This developer and former Ft. Collins City Council member is taking a serious look at running in 2022.

(R) Erik Aadland (1%)
He’s only been a registered Republican voter in Colorado for a few months, but he officially filed to run for U.S. Senate.

(R) Peter Yu (1%)
Yu is one of those people who just likes being a candidate for something.

(R) Dan Caplis (1%)↓
Caplis appears to have punted yet again after more than a decade of pretending he would run for something in Colorado.

(R) Clarice Navarro (1%)↓
Lauren Boebert’s District Director had been looking into a run but is probably content to stay out of this one.

 

(R) Ken Buck (OFF)
Buck didn’t bother keeping up the charade for very long.

 


GOVERNOR

(D) Jared Polis* (70%)↑
Polis was elected by an 11-point margin in 2018. In 2020, Joe Biden carried Colorado by 13 points and John Hickenlooper won a Senate race by about 10. There’s little reason to think Polis won’t cruise to another term in 2022.

(R) Heidi Ganahl (20%)↓
Ganahl finally stumbled across the starting line to make her gubernatorial campaign official by returning to a location that failed Cory Gardner in 2020. She’s not off to a great start.

(R) Greg Lopez (10%)
Lopez got about 13% of the vote in the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary, and about a year later he announced that he planned to run again in 2022. If his 2022 bid gets any traction, Lopez will have to explain why he violated conflict of interest rules when he served as district director in Colorado for the Small Business Association.

 

 


ATTORNEY GENERAL

(D) Phil Weiser* (60%)
Weiser turned a lot of heads as a first-time candidate in 2018. He’ll be even better in 2022.

 

 


STATE TREASURER

(D) Dave Young* (60%)
Young’s biggest task might be in convincing Democrats to pay attention here.

 


SECRETARY OF STATE

(D) Jena Griswold* (70%)↑
Griswold was the biggest surprise of the 2018 cycle. She’ll be a top target for Republicans in 2022…if they can find someone to run against her.

 

(R) Rose Pugliese (OUT)
Pugliese seemed to be the safe bet to be the GOP nominee here, but she apparently changed her mind.

 

 


CO-01 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
DeGette is now longest-serving federal elected official in Colorado history.

 


CO-02 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
You’re going to read this refrain a lot, but it’s true: Barring major redistricting changes, Neguse is perfectly safe.

(R) Casper Stockham (5%)
We don’t have any reason to think Stockham might run here, but he’s already failed in CO-01, CO-06, and CO-07, so maybe he’ll try to complete the set in Democratically-held districts.

 


CO-03 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (60%)↓
Boebert will likely remain the favorite here unless something really strange happens in redistricting. Will Boebert’s act still be interesting to voters by November 2022?

(D) Kerry Donovan (40%)↑
Donovan raised more than $614k in just 55 days since announcing her candidacy to solidify her place as the likely Democratic nominee in 2022.

(D) Sol Sandoval (20%)
She is not a well-known name in CO-3 politics, but her kickoff video shows potential.

(R) Marina Zimmerman (10%)
It’s too soon to tell how serious to take Zimmerman’s candidacy.

(D) Don Valdez (10%)
State Representative making another go after a brief bid in 2020.

(R) Tim Foster (5%)↓
The former President of Colorado Mesa University in Grand Junction (he retired in June 2021) was looking at a potential Primary earlier in the year, but chatter seems to have cooled recently.

(D) Many Other People (1%)
There are a bunch of unknown Democrats running for this seat who are unlikely to still be hanging around a year from now.

 


CO-04 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck announced that he is running for re-election, but we still wouldn’t be surprised if he decided to do something else instead.

(D) Ike McCorkle (30%)
McCorkle is running again after losing handily to Buck in 2020. Unless redistricting really changes the electorate, he’s looking at the same likely outcome.

 


CO-05 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (80%)↓
Ruh-roh. Lawsuit from former staffer could be the beginning of the end for unremarkable Lamborn.

 


CO-06 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (80%)
Yada, yada, redistricting. Otherwise, Crow doesn’t have much to worry about in 2022.

(R) Lora Thomas (20%)
Douglas County Commissioner thinks she has a shot after winning re-election in 2020 in a solid red county. She’s wrong.

 


CO-07 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
But for redistricting, there’s no reason for Perlmutter to be concerned in 2022.

(R) Laurel Imer (10%)
Redistricting would have to make massive changes to CO-07 for Imer to have even a chance at beating Perlmutter.

 


CO-08 (¯\_(ツ)_/¯ )

(D) Yadira Caraveo (40%)
State Rep. from Adams County is first to formally enter the race for a seat that still doesn’t have official district boundaries yet.

(R) Republican Person (40%)
However the new maps are drawn, CO-08 will probably be the best chance Republicans will have at gaining another congressional seat in 2022.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats took control of the State Senate in 2018 and picked up another seat in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
The State Senate is once again the best chance for Republicans to make gains in 2022, but only because things look so bleak everywhere else.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
Democrats earned their biggest House majority in decades in 2018, then kept things intact in 2020. There’s virtually no chance Republicans could flip enough seats in 2022.

REPUBLICANS (10%)
Capturing the majority here would be a multi-cycle task for the GOP. Colorado has changed significantly since Republicans last held a majority in the State House.

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2022 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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