January 01, 2010 09:23 PM UTC

Quest For Colorado's Senate: Dems Have Strong Upper Hand

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• by: donscottknox

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

We’ve just posted our analysis of the coming elections for the Colorado Senate. Our findings:

How strong is the Democratic advantage in the Colorado Senate? Senate Dems who don’t have to run this election cycle outnumber their Senate Republican counterparts 10-6.

This means that Democrats need to win only eight of 19 open seats to retain control.

GOP candidates must win 12 of 19 seats – nearly two thirds of the open seats – to wrest control.

More analysis below the fold …

Additionally, there’s no current GOP margin for error.

Republicans would have to:

* Win all of the seats currently held by GOP incumbents, plus the seat being vacated by GOP Minority Leader Josh Penry. That’s a total of six seats.

* Keep hold of SD-02 (Ken Kester is term-limited) and SD-09 (Dave Schultheis is not running). Two seats.

* Pick off previously Dem-held seats in SD-03 (Abel Tapia is term-limited) and SD-20 (Moe Keller is term-limited). Alexander Mugatu is running in SD-03; John Odom is running in SD-20. Two seats.

* Take away seats currently held by Dem incumbents Gail Schwartz (SD-05) and Bruce Whitehead (SD-06). Two seats.

The math for GOP control: 6+6+2+2+2+=18. It’s not impossible, but it’s a tall order, even in a mid-term election during a recession. That would seem to favor Republicans.

Read our entire report here: https://www.statebillnews.com/2…

Key to the GOP effort will be how voters feel about candidates such as Alexander Mugatu and John Odom.

Do they have what it takes, including the $$$ and feet on the streets, to win open seats?