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January 01, 2010 09:23 PM UTC

Quest For Colorado's Senate: Dems Have Strong Upper Hand

  • 32 Comments
  • by: donscottknox

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

We’ve just posted our analysis of the coming elections for the Colorado Senate. Our findings:

How strong is the Democratic advantage in the Colorado Senate? Senate Dems who don’t have to run this election cycle outnumber their Senate Republican counterparts 10-6.

This means that Democrats need to win only eight of 19 open seats to retain control.

GOP candidates must win 12 of 19 seats – nearly two thirds of the open seats – to wrest control.

More analysis below the fold …

Additionally, there’s no current GOP margin for error.

Republicans would have to:

* Win all of the seats currently held by GOP incumbents, plus the seat being vacated by GOP Minority Leader Josh Penry. That’s a total of six seats.

* Keep hold of SD-02 (Ken Kester is term-limited) and SD-09 (Dave Schultheis is not running). Two seats.

* Pick off previously Dem-held seats in SD-03 (Abel Tapia is term-limited) and SD-20 (Moe Keller is term-limited). Alexander Mugatu is running in SD-03; John Odom is running in SD-20. Two seats.

* Take away seats currently held by Dem incumbents Gail Schwartz (SD-05) and Bruce Whitehead (SD-06). Two seats.

The math for GOP control: 6+6+2+2+2+=18. It’s not impossible, but it’s a tall order, even in a mid-term election during a recession. That would seem to favor Republicans.

Read our entire report here: http://www.statebillnews.com/2…

Key to the GOP effort will be how voters feel about candidates such as Alexander Mugatu and John Odom.

Do they have what it takes, including the $$$ and feet on the streets, to win open seats?

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32 thoughts on “Quest For Colorado’s Senate: Dems Have Strong Upper Hand”

  1. for our state legislators as well as federal. If the economy continues to recover, Unaffiliateds aren’t going to go running into the arms of the ones who made most of this mess in the first place. If the economy doesn’t recover in a timely fashion (and with foreclosures at a still all time high), Unaffiliateds are going to vote for the “Anybody But You Party” and that benefits Republicans.

    Either way, I have a hard time seeing the GOP winning 12 of 19. I think they’ll make some gains but not enough to take back the Senate.

  2. I’ve already me them and talked to them many times – they’re ready to go and ready to work hard – they’re also very popular in their home districts

    However – you’re forgeting one Dem who is VERY vulnberable – John Morse – we’re taking that seat back

    1. Humor me since Ive been a way for awhile and someone else may have brought this to the community’s attention, but this guy is running for State Senate?

        1. Exactly how does that qualify him to be a state senator?  

          The instant I hear a candidate (on either side of the aisle) emphasize “faith” is the instant I know I won’t vote for them.  

          1. Faith is a major part of Owen’s background as he works for a faith-based institution – in my opinion, that is an advantage and a good thing

            Nonetheless – he’s very bright and will know to keep his talking points on fiscal issues

        2. That it’s a bad idea to host your website on any domain other than “www.candidatename.com.”

          Particularly when the folder that his campaign site is contained within has “insane” in it.

          Also, what the hell is up with all that bling?  

          1. That is one of the worst candidate websites I’ve ever seen. Not just the bling, and the bad URL name, but “Mogatu 4 State Senate”? Come on.

            Unless the average age of SD-3 voters is 14, in which case, good job.

              1. You have to have both, Ali. And when the appearances are distracting the message, then you need to retool the appearance.

                If you’re this guy’s friend and supporter, I would strongly recommend that he retool that website.

                1) Make it a normal candidate site, not a MySpace page.

                2) Don’t use capital letters as emphasis. Or, if you do, don’t DO IT every OTHER word because IT’S distracting to EVERYONE who reads it.

                3) Maturity matters for a young candidate. His message might be one of fiscal responsibility, but all that comes through is a sort of frat boy attitude IMO.

                You’re free to disagree, of course, but I thought I’d give your boy a little free advice if he’s reading this thread.

                BTW, Ali, I hope you had a happy new year. I’m really looking forward to your campaign for Treasurer this year.

  3. While people tend to want to throw all the bums in the legislature out – they also tend to like their own representatives. That’s why you can have congress’ approval rating in the toilet and yet see virtually all incumbents get re-elected.

  4. Is untouchable. Regardless of who wins the Ruchman/Jahn primary, it’s a tough candidate. Jahn is the former Speaker pro Tem of the House, and while conservative, she’s a powerful campaigner.

    Dave Ruchman knows how to run a field operation. His campaign had some rockiness which led to his loss against Sue Schaffer in 08, but he knows how to hit the ground running post primary.

    Whitehead may be vulnerable in his district based purely off the fact that he hasn’t campaigned for anything before, but I think he’ll be a strong candidate coming out of this legislative session.

    It’s a tall order, indeed.  

    1. is this the one where he alienates everyone at the door, or just the women? Or is it the same field operation that won him the last election post primary? Oh, wait, that one doesn’t exist.

      Ruchman couldn’t handle a debate against a Republican (especially if that Republican is Cheri Jahn). If the Ds in SD20 want a Democrat to win, they’ll be smart to go with Jahn. If the Ds in SD20 want a progressive to win, they’re S.O.L. plus, if Ruchman won the primary, you’d be guaranteed a major blunder. He’s got it smeared all over him.  

          1. these responses are like responses from Libertad.

            If you think Ruchman alienating women is “Ruchman being Ruchman” then I am thoroughly impressed with your ability to spin.  

  5. SD16 is NW Jeffco, western Boulder, plus four mountain counties.  Voter registration is fairly evenly divided there — something like 31 percent Dem, 33 percent Repub, 35 percent unaffiliated, from what I hear.  Should be interesting.

    1. Again – past history needs to be remembered –

      SD16 is a Republican seat

      Joan Fitz-Gerald won it because she had great NAME ID from serving as Clerk in JeffCo…. and more importantly, JFG worked HARD – I know Republicans whose doors she knocked on in Summit County, for example

      Dan Gibbs won this seat on the heels of his popularity in Summit – he received close to 80% of the vote in Summit, which really propelled him to victory

      Unless the Democrats can find someone with JFG’s popularity in Jeffco or Dan Gibbs’ popularity in Summit, then I would imagine them to be in trouble

  6. Ellen Roberts has a terrific chance of picking off a Dem Western Slope seat

    Owen Hill can take Morse

    SD16 can go Republican

    Gail Schwartz’s seat is another that can easily be won

    That’s 4 right there, not even counting Mugatu in Pueblo and Odom

    I don’t think the picture looks good for Democrats….

    1. SD16 is too much of a toss up yet to make any predictions. We don’t even know who the candidates are yet. The district has been Dem for several terms now and that is momemtum that cannot be ignored.

      Gail Schwartz is a strong candidate. Don’t foreget she took the seat from an incumbent to begin with. I don’t see her being particularly vulnerable.

      Morse is popular in his district. He’ll have to work to keep it, but I think he can do it.

      Ellen Roberts may have a chance, it depends on if her own party fucks her or not.

      I seriously doubt a seat based in Pueblo will go GOP.

      So final count, GOP picks up 1, maybe 3 if ALL of the right circumstances go their way. They need 4 to take control.

      If the GOP were smart they would reign in their tea-baggers and focus on the real prize: redistricting. Taking control of the Senate would stop the Dems from totally controlling the redistriciting process. Oh course, it would alos up the odds of an impassehaving a  judge doing it again.

      So far, the party has not seemed able to control their fringe, so I expect they will shoot themselves in the foot again and the Dems will dictate redistricting.

        1. Morse was not as well know yet and he is more popular from what I can see the better known he is.

          Schwartz barely won, but that was over a popular incumbent. Being the incumbent now herself, I don’t see havcing too much trouble.

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