December 04, 2024 10:26 AM UTC

Final Numbers on Makeup of U.S. House

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• by: Colorado Pols

You’re no doubt aware that Republicans held onto a narrow majority in Congress in the 2024 election cycle. What you might have missed is that the final numbers are closer than anyone thought.

As NBC News reports:

Democrat Adam Gray has defeated GOP Rep. John Duarte in a rematch in California’s 13th District in the Central Valley following weeks of ballot counting, NBC News projects, meaning Republicans won 220 House seats in the 2024 elections to Democrats’ 215. The GOP can lose just two votes on legislation in the House in the next Congress if Democrats all vote in opposition, giving them little wiggle room for absences, internal fighting and vacancies…

…The 13th District is one of three Democratic pickups in California alone, with Democrats Derek Tran and George Whitesides defeating GOP Reps. Michelle Steel and Mike Garcia. Democrats also flipped three seats in New York and one in Oregon, and they gained one seat each in Alabama and Louisiana because of new congressional maps in those states.

Republicans, meanwhile, picked up three seats in North Carolina because of the state’s new congressional map. They also defeated two Pennsylvania Democrats, Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright, as well as Democratic lawmakers in Alaska and Colorado, and they flipped an open seat in Michigan.

Entering the November election, Republicans held a 220-212 advantage in the House (there were three vacancies at the time). While Republicans have a five-vote majority on paper, the reality is much different.

As Axios explains, this will make for a tenuous few months (at least) for House Speaker Mike Johnson:

President-elect Trump has selected Reps. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) and Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as his national security advisor and ambassador to the United Nations, respectively.

Both of their seats, along with that of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who resigned in pursuit of a short-lived nomination for attorney general and said he will not retake his seat in January, won’t be filled until the Spring.

While Waltz doesn’t plan to resign until Jan. 20, Johnson will still be left with a 217-215 majority for some of the key first months of Trump’s term. [Pols emphasis]

In other words, it will only take an illness here and a prior commitment there to lead to a deadlocked House of Representatives on any given day.

This isn’t the majority control that Democrats thought they would have in 2025, but it’s the next-best outcome.