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November 07, 2023 11:54 PM UTC

Wednesday Open Thread

  • 39 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“A lack of precision is dangerous when the margin of error is small.”

–Donald Rumsfeld

Comments

39 thoughts on “Wednesday Open Thread

    1. I liked Virginia-based political guru Larry Sabato's comment

      CLEARANCE SALE: all 'Youngkin for President 2024' merchandise. A free MyPillow comes with all purchases over $1. NO RETURNS.

      — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) November 8, 2023

      1. LMAO     Trump losers continue to be losers but that asshole could be electorally made President again.  Note Trump will spin FOR abortion rights and cut out that female vote that might be swayed in red key electoral states. 

        1. In 2024, the woman vote will prove pivotal. Trump can lie about supporting abortion but everyone around him won't and people will notice that. Also, even if Trump does win, it's not because the majority of voters are clamoring for his return. People have a very low rating of him even after all this time. People will vote for third-party and independent candidates by droves in 2024 and its national Dems task to sway these voters to break for them along with encouraging women to come and vote in mass. 

          Trump being re-elected will actually not be good news for Republicans because it wasn't an actual majority victory which will leave behind a gigantic amount of third-party, independent, Democratic and Dem-leaning voters (who comprise the majority) that still hate him. The only silver lining I see in Trump's re-election is the huge losses Republicans will experience. Combine anti-Trump sentiment with pro-choice support, and you have yourself a recipe for very bad years for the GOP (but good ones for the Dems).

        2. Trump has crowed about 3 Supreme Court Justices and getting Roe v. Wade overturned when "no one else" thought it could happen. In the middle of October, Trump was pushing for Iowa … Rolling Stone noted his tactic

          Trump Takes Credit For Destruction of Abortion Rights in New Iowa Ads

          The former president is branding himself the "MOST pro-life president in history" despite previously fretting about the GOP's extreme stance

          The ads feature a triumphant video, in which a voiceover intones: “For over 50 years, Republicans have promised to protect the sanctity of life. And while we waited innocent unborn children fell victim. One Republican president didn’t just make promises — he delivered. Living up to his promise, Roe vs. Wade was overturned. Thousands of unborn children say ‘Thank you.’” President Trump is fighting every day for the culture of life, and for those who can’t fight for themselves.”

          Trump can't spin in all directions on abortion. 

      2. Yes, after the Ohio constitutional amendment passing, watching Glenn Youngkin get his ass handed to him was the second-best moment of the night.

          1. As awkward as it is for me to say, I (and many others) expressed similar sentiment 30 years ago after Colorado voters – with direct democracy in action – passed Amendment Two.

            The point was that the civil rights of a particular group should not depend upon the whims of 50% one.

            If you start with the premise that a fertilized egg is a person – a premise Santorum vocally embraces – then the rights of that “person” are being abridged by legalized abortion.

            I don’t agreement with his premise and therefore do not agree with his conclusion, but I understand the asshole’s point. 

            1. Wouldn't "constitutional democracy" be a  bit closer to the basis of American government? "Republic" is such a patrician word…hence, I think, the GOP assault upon said Constitution. 

  1. Politico tried hard to keep heat on Biden’s low poll numbers. That may change on Nov. 17 if Speaker Johnson and the House Freedom Caucus shut the government down.

    1. It’s almost hilarious that Republicans are going to respond to this ass-whooping by shutting down the government and reminding everyone how extreme they are.

    2. I'm still of the mind that the biggest reason for Biden's low approval/polling/enthusiasm numbers are Biden's low approval/polling/enthusiasm numbers.

      I especially dislike "enthusiasm" metrics comparing Biden to Trump. There's no comparison. Trump supporters think Trump is like American Jesus but better. Biden supporters think Biden is ok but could be better.

       

      1. Cult of Personalities will always have more "enthusiastic" followers.  Unfortunately, metrics of "effectiveness" aren't sexy enough for clickbait pundits.

    1. Why are we acting surprised of the result though? Incumbency is a huge advantage especially in hyperlocal races. Coffman is also a fixture in Aurora politics and is widely known. Recognition is also a giant factor here (again, especially in local elections). As much as others here may disagree, Coffman is actually a moderate, at least much more so than the average Republican in the state legislature. Final factor, Aurora was relatively Republican until rather recently, with local politics still being swingy if not narrowly Republican-leaning. Let’s not get this wrong though, Aurora is far less Republican even in the local level than it used to be.

      I’m not sure if this is actually going on but if there are Colorado Republicans entertaining the idea of Coffman running for Governor or some other statewide office in the future because he does well in blue-leaning areas will be sorely mistaking. Coffman will almost certainty go down. One Republican winning in a nonpartisan race in an area he has clout (along with other advances as described above) does not equal a Republican who can win throughout a whole state like Colorado. Why? That would require an entire essay.

  2. Property tax thought for the day. I read from numerous people that we need relief for the little guy. Including the small businessman and the renter. But not for the giant companies.

    Well back when I ran Windward we rented from a giant real estate conglomerate. So if you have high taxes for the big property owners, guess what I’m then paying in my triple net (part of the rent).

    and one of my daughters rented an apartment from another giant company. High property taxes for them – increased rent.

    You need to apply tax relief equally.

    1. Best way to provide "property tax relief" would be to create an income tax credit for payments up to, say, $400,000 on any single property.  Then balance the credit with a progressive income tax, leaving the existing rate in place for those below the median, a modest rise for median to some point, and a a larger rise for those in the top 10% or 15%. 

      Or pass a state carbon tax to make up the difference & incentivize conservation.

       

  3. I wanted to share this great news. I have a brother that lives in Spokane, Washington and has been telling about the mayor. The mayor Nadine Woodward is a Republican who literally participated in a far-right pro-Christian theocracy rally a few months ago (more info here). This is a big deal because Spokane is a liberal-leaning city with a progressive majority in the city council.  Her win back in 2019 was a fluke due to low voter turnout and other factors. However, after winning, she refused to moderate her views and governed like a relatively hardline conservative (Coffman might actually be a moderate using these standards). The good news? It looks like she's going to lose to the Democratic challenger. I' just disappointed that the lead is much more narrow than it should be despite the BS Woodward has done and the blue-leaning nature of the city.

    1. And then things got weird there: https://www.inlander.com/news/blue-spokane-early-election-results-show-a-big-progressive-lead-in-spokane-with-a-few-exceptions-26944154

  4. It is so strange that the Republican Party is doubling down on Trump and on Abortion. Not to mention aligning with Russia and the obsession with Hunter Biden's dick pix.

    via Mahablog.

    This is from Politico regarding the Ohio abortion referendum votes —

    The unofficial results also suggest that the counties with the highest turnout in Tuesday’s election were actually jurisdictions that had favored Trump in 2020. The victory for Yes on Issue 1 was not driven by remarkable Democratic turnout — but by a significant share of voters in Republican-leaning counties casting their ballots for abortion rights.

    And this is about Virginia —

    The wins are a rebuke to Youngkin’s efforts to consolidate power in the state by removing a Democratic roadblock to his agenda, on everything from taxes to abortion. Youngkin, unusually, launched a strategy to have Republicans run on abortion in these elections. Youngkin pushed candidates to coalesce around a 15 week ban in the state, trying to cast Democrats as extremists on the issue and Republicans as the party with the reasonable position.

    1. True but that won't stop voters from electing Republicans even if they take away social liberties and rights. Tribalism is far too strong, especially among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. I've learned that voters will vote Republican even if the party began make death camps for who they term "undesirables" and sending out the death squads tommorow. That's the issue when we have a strict two-party system and people that care more about "Us vs. Them" tribal mentality than actually electing people due to their merits and abilities regardless of party affiliation. 

  5. I'm sorry but I must vent about Ohio voters. Don't get me wrong, they voted for legal weed and abortion by decisive margins and that's great. However, I find it amazing that most voters supported these liberal measures by a decisive margin similar to which they supported Republicans back in 2022 and some years back. Ohio Republicans have openly said they opposed these measures and still plan to oppose them despite it passing by large margins. Yet, the voters see nothing wrong and will continue to vote for them.

    I wish Republican actually got punished more consistently when they push shitty things not even their voters want. Democrats do the same thing and they usually get wrecked at the polls, even in blue-leaning states. This is something I must admit is a huge flaw among Democratic-leaning or Dem-leaning independents voters. We either don't bother to vote or actually vote for the alternative because we care more about results and policy than tribalism and purity even if the alternative or other guys wouldn't extend that same courtesy if the roles were reversed. Sorry. Rent over.

  6. "It's too soon to develop a post-conflict governance plan for Gaza…"

    This is fucking wrong. I know governments give themselves the permission to kill other people, but not having a serious "…and then" after the killing is wrong.

    "They attacked you. What are you going to do?"
    "We kill them!"
    "And then?"
    "What do you mean, `And then?`?"
    "What happens after you kill the people who attacked you?"
    "We're doing too much killing right now. We'll consider that later."

  7. Does this sound possible for Colorado's Republicans? 

    Effort to remove Michigan GOP chair builds momentum as infighting and debt plague party

    It's a swift fall for Karamo, an election conspiracy theorist who in February was overwhelmingly elected by grassroots activists to lead the state party through the next presidential election until early 2025. Michigan Republicans were coming off historic losses in the 2022 midterms, and Karamo promised to rebuild the state party into “a political machine that strikes fear in the heart of Democrats.”

  8. From the Colorado Sun:

    Colorado property taxes, which are collected on the local level and fund services like schools, fire districts and parks, are calculated by multiplying the statewide assessment rate by the value of a property as determined by a county assessor. That number is then multiplied by the local mill levy rate. 

    So the failure of HH allows the TAX rate go up as scheduled. What does the local MILL LEVY rate do?

    We have incomplete information, and of course HH was confusing

     

     

    1. I assume local taxing entities will now determine and certify their mill levies based on revenue needs and TABOR etc restrictions, as usual. But the experts can weigh in.

  9. Interesting twist in the Minnesota suit to keep Trump off the primary ballot — apparently the GOP in that state can put a dog on their primary ballot!

    In a short court order, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie E. Hudson said the justices are dismissing the case because the state’s March 5 primary is “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes” that does not provide the final determination of who appears on the ballot for the general election in November 2024.

    “And there is no state statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office,” Hudson wrote.

    I wonder if Colorado is in the same boat?  Note:  this ruling does not apply for the general election, even in Minnesota, so Trump isn't free and clear by any means.

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