October 08, 2012 10:02 PM UTC

Roll Call's Colorado Roundup: Two Tossups and a Costly Dem Hold

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• by: Colorado Pols

Roll Call publishes a roundup of key races in the Rocky Mountain region today, updating three congressional battles in Colorado–CDs 3, 6, and 7. Excerpts show a pretty good handle on the state of these races, little to disagree with:

[W]ith no Senate race, both [Scott Tipton and Sal Pace] will appear directly below the presidential race and will therefore be closely tied to President Barack Obama or Republican nominee Mitt Romney. In a handful of September polls, Obama began to pull out of the margin of error statewide, although some showed that contest tightening. And at least one national Republican strategist predicted that Romney will prevail in the 3rd district.

Internal House polling from both sides gives Tipton a small lead, but as of last week, Pace had yet to go negative in his television advertising. If Pace can get traction, this race will stay Tossup. If not, it is a sign that the district is returning to its Republican roots. In 2008, McCain fell just short here against Obama. But President George W. Bush carried it in 2004 with 55 percent…

Early on, Colorado Democrats privately admitted that while [Mike] Coffman has a conservative record, he was the better candidate. There was also an obvious sense among Democrats that Miklosi lacked charisma. But that all changed in May, when a video surfaced that showed Coffman making a reference to President Barack Obama’s place of birth.

[Ed] Perlmutter will probably return to Congress – but the question will be, at what cost to the national party? Republicans, while hoping for victory, are using this race to bleed Democrats of money that they would prefer to spend elsewhere.

A good summary, worth reading in its entirety. The one thing we would add is that the potentially important impact of the presidential race cited in CD-3 as a factor downticket, especially since these are the next highest races down the ticket in Colorado, is applicable to all three congressional battlegrounds–each, if perhaps for differing reasons and to a variable extent, share a desire if not a need for healthy Barack Obama coattails on Election Day.

We realize how that sounds after the week Obama just had, but it’s no less true now.