November 17, 2022 09:42 AM UTC

First New CD-3 Numbers In Days Inch Toward Recount Range

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE 3:45PM: In one high-drama day of counting across CD-3 of remaining ballots, incumbent GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has seen her lead cut by more than half to only 557 votes–well inside the margin for an automatic recount.

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UPDATE 2:30PM: Closer and closer, but the remaining ballots are also shrinking:

UPDATE: with 14 of #CO03‘s 27 counties reporting, incl. Garfield, @laurenboebert‘s lead over @AdamForColorado drops to 944 votes — still outside current 813-vote auto recount trigger. Larger counties still to report: Pueblo, Mesa & La Plata. #copoliticshttps://t.co/g62c0iCToa

— Ernest Lee Luning (@eluning) November 17, 2022

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Following last night’s deadline to cure ballots with signature or other issues that prevented a small percentage of votes from being tabulated in Colorado’s extremely close CD-3 race, we’re getting our first updates as county clerks begin processing those ballots as well as remaining overseas and military ballots. And the first updates are moving the needle ever so slightly in Democratic challenger Adam Frisch’s direction:

…and now another batch of 69 votes in #CO03 that break 42-27 for Frisch, trimming Lauren Boebert’s lead by another 15 votes down to 1,103. pic.twitter.com/Ma87Wcix8e

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) November 17, 2022

And with that, Colorado’s political watercooler class can resume mashing our refresh buttons on the Secretary of State’s election results page. We’re watching first to see if the count brings Frisch to within approximately 800 votes, the floating margin based on the final tally that would trigger an automatic recount of the race. That’s enough to keep the uncertainty going into next week, although the outcome will no longer decide control of the U.S. House.

The next benchmark from there would be an outright Frisch victory, which would exceed realistic expectations but is not impossible. Either way, by transforming what should have been an easy ride for freshman GOP scandal-o-matic Rep. Lauren Boebert into a contest that has occupied post-election headlines due to the race coming in so unexpectedly close, Adam Frisch has changed the game in CD-3 for as long Boebert remains in office. After Boebert easily defeated her 2022 primary challenger Don Coram, conventional wisdom took CD-3 off the table leaving Frisch to take Boebert on more or less on his own.

Now that Frisch has shattered Boebert’s invulnerability, she’ll be a top target in 2024 even if she hangs on in 2022’s final count. Boebert has underperformed in two general elections relative to the district’s partisan lean. After these results, Boebert is officially a liability to Republicans and a pickup opportunity for Democrats.

We’ll update as the results trickle in.