June 19, 2026 12:16 PM UTC

Vibe Check: Where Campaigns Stand with 11 Days Left

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• by: Colorado Pols

The Primary Election will finally be over in 11 days, but that’s not to say there isn’t plenty of intrigue left.

We did a “Vibe Check” on the Primary Election on the latest episode of the Get More Smarter Podcast. Here’s a more expanded look at where things appear to stand in the most high-profile contests in Colorado…

Ballot Returns

As of the end of day on Wednesday, 230,436 ballots had been returned statewide — a slight uptick when compared to the same time period in the 2024 Primary Election. Democrats have returned about 18,000 more ballots than Republicans.

Unaffiliated voters, who can choose to vote in either the Democratic or Republican Primary Election, have been casting ballots in the Democratic Primary by a 2-to-1 margin. This is no surprise given that Republicans only have one significant race — the three-way Primary for Governor.

Overall, older voters (age 65+) have returned the majority of all ballots thus far.

U.S. Senate

The most recent campaign finance reports for federal campaigns were released on Thursday. In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate, the numbers are particularly instructive.

During the period from April 1 – June 10, Julie Gonzales raised $424,231; spent $312,999; and finished the period with $226,204 in the bank. Importantly, Gonzales doesn’t appear to have spent any money on advertising expenses in the last few months; her expenditures are all for campaign overhead, staff, and consultants.

Incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper raised $687,321, spent just shy of $2 million; and finished the period with $2.96 million in the bank. The bulk of Hickenlooper’s expenditures went to advertising.

Based on campaign emails and text messages, Gonzales seems to be spending most of her time canvassing voters in Denver — often focusing on her own state senate district. Gonzales has raised more than $869,000 for her campaign in total but has devoted virtually nothing to paid media outreach. The largest advertising expenditure we have seen is a $40,000 digital ad buy from the Working Families Party PAC.

Gonzales has simply not run a competitive campaign for U.S. Senate in 2026. There’s no plausible scenario where she comes anywhere close to defeating Hickenlooper on June 30.

Governor 

It’s tough to argue that Attorney General Phil Weiser doesn’t have the momentum in the Democratic Primary. Senator Michael Bennet recently made a $1 million loan to his gubernatorial campaign, which is not something you do if you are feeling confident about your position in the final month. Bennet’s campaign says the loan is to counter Weiser’s paid media efforts, but pro-Bennet ads have saturated the airways for weeks. As The Colorado Sun reports:

Rocky Mountain Way, the state-level super PAC supporting Bennet’s candidacy, raised about $2.2 million during the reporting period, including $2 million from [former New York City Mayor Michael] Bloomberg on May 28. That brings Bloomberg’s donations to Rocky Mountain Way to more than $4.6 million.

The group spent about $2.4 million during the span on TV, radio and digital ads, as well as mailers.

The PAC, which has raised a total of $10.3 million in support of Bennet, still had nearly $3 million in the bank on June 11, cash that it appears to be unloading on more ads to help the senator beat Weiser.

The obvious takeaway here is that Bennet’s narrative — which has been hard to understand anyway — just isn’t working, no matter how many resources are devoted to paid media. Polling has shown this race tightening in the last month and we appear to be headed toward a very close finish.

On the Republican side, none of the candidates are doing much on the paid media front. The big question for the last 11 days will be about whether Cajun Karate Master Victor Marx can hold on to his lead despite becoming a national punchline in recent weeks. We’ve seen some relatively-minor expenditures from groups supporting State Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer, though not nearly enough to propel her forward in a meaningful way. If Marx’s very online base of supporters remember to vote, he should still end up as the GOP nominee.

Attorney General

The four-way Democratic Primary is likely down to two candidates: Jena Griswold and Michael Dougherty. While Dougherty has picked up endorsements from The Denver Post and The Durango Herald, Griswold has been getting some truly awful press lately — including this BRUTAL story from CBS4 Denver. Nevertheless, Griswold’s massive name ID advantage will be hard for any of the other three Democrats to overcome in the final days of this campaign.

Secretary of State

We can sum this race up with a graphic:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

Neither Democrat in the race — State Sen. Jessie Danielson and Jefferson County Clerk and Recorder Amanda Gonzalez — have raised a significant amount of money for paid media efforts, making it really difficult to gauge the outcome on June 30. Danielson has a longer track record in elected office and may be more familiar to Democratic voters, while Gonzalez will undoubtedly benefit from a surname that should help with Latino voters in a low-information race. Your guess is as good as ours here.

CO-01

Congresswoman Diana DeGette is the longest-serving elected official in Colorado history and is in a dogfight with challenger Melat Kiros to extend that streak for another two years (Wanda James is also on the ballot, but her campaign has been all but invisible from the jump).

Kiros supporters are touting poll results purportedly showing that she has closed a 38-point gap with DeGette since March. We have a hard time believing these numbers given DeGette’s name ID and paid media advantage, but there’s little doubt that this is shaping up to be a close race.

Kiros has been getting a good amount of earned media lately, though not all of it good news. Meanwhile, three Super PACs are coming to DeGette’s aid with $1.3 million in paid media efforts. DeGette has the resources and the natural advantage of incumbency, and while James has no chance of winning, she may draw just enough votes away from Kiros to give DeGette a cushion for victory. We wouldn’t be shocked if Kiros pulls the upset, but we’d still bet on DeGette to eke it out.

CO-08

Democrat Manny Rutinel looks to be in good shape against Shannon Bird despite taking a big hit in recent weeks from churlish left-wing activists. A recent poll from GBAO shows Rutinel with a 13-point lead over Bird, who has struggled to overcome a persistent attack about a committee vote she took in the state legislature regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions in Colorado. Rutinel’s main concern in the last 11 days is probably about making sure his targeted base of younger voters return their ballots in sufficient numbers.