First New CD-3 Numbers In Days Inch Toward Recount Range

UPDATE 3:45PM: In one high-drama day of counting across CD-3 of remaining ballots, incumbent GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has seen her lead cut by more than half to only 557 votes–well inside the margin for an automatic recount.


UPDATE 2:30PM: Closer and closer, but the remaining ballots are also shrinking:


Following last night’s deadline to cure ballots with signature or other issues that prevented a small percentage of votes from being tabulated in Colorado’s extremely close CD-3 race, we’re getting our first updates as county clerks begin processing those ballots as well as remaining overseas and military ballots. And the first updates are moving the needle ever so slightly in Democratic challenger Adam Frisch’s direction:

A clearly nervous Lauren Boebert late Tuesday night.

And with that, Colorado’s political watercooler class can resume mashing our refresh buttons on the Secretary of State’s election results page. We’re watching first to see if the count brings Frisch to within approximately 800 votes, the floating margin based on the final tally that would trigger an automatic recount of the race. That’s enough to keep the uncertainty going into next week, although the outcome will no longer decide control of the U.S. House.

The next benchmark from there would be an outright Frisch victory, which would exceed realistic expectations but is not impossible. Either way, by transforming what should have been an easy ride for freshman GOP scandal-o-matic Rep. Lauren Boebert into a contest that has occupied post-election headlines due to the race coming in so unexpectedly close, Adam Frisch has changed the game in CD-3 for as long Boebert remains in office. After Boebert easily defeated her 2022 primary challenger Don Coram, conventional wisdom took CD-3 off the table leaving Frisch to take Boebert on more or less on his own.

Now that Frisch has shattered Boebert’s invulnerability, she’ll be a top target in 2024 even if she hangs on in 2022’s final count. Boebert has underperformed in two general elections relative to the district’s partisan lean. After these results, Boebert is officially a liability to Republicans and a pickup opportunity for Democrats.

We’ll update as the results trickle in.

28 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Dano says:

    It has bounced back to 1108 vote difference. The counties to come this morning so far are Huerfano, Saguache, and Archuleta.

    The counties I would expect to move the needle bigger numbers are Mesa, Pueblo, La Plata, Garfield, and maybe Eagle. 4 of those 5 are being carried by Frisch at the moment.

  2. bullshit! says:

    Have you considered that the damage Boebert would do in a narrow House majority might be worth several seats in 2024?

  3. DawnPatrol says:

    I’d imagine this entire cliffhanger ordeal has been quite the blow to the nasty sawed-off witch’s inexplicably massive ego and delusions of grandeur and inevitability.

    Bet she’s been just tons o’ fun around Casa de Bowburt this past week.

    • unnamed says:

      Yeah.  But she has no ability to learn from this.  She will double down and blame everybody and everything else but herself.

      • DawnPatrol says:

        All a given, of course. These people simply don’t ‘do’ growth or ever evolve. Self awareness equates to ‘thinking too much.’ They know but one setting: smug arrogance.

        No, I’m just enjoying the complete collapse of her preconceived notions and the destruction of any peace of mind she might have held briefly going into this election cycle. I’d wager she’s now experiencing something akin to PTSD–much as Scott Tipton likely did when she unexpectedly upended him.

  4. Dano says:

    Dolores and Las Animas have come in, the vote difference is down to 1098.

    There are going to have to be a lot cured ballots in blue-ish counties to help Adam at this point. Traditionally Pueblo seems to always be the last one to report numbers, so we will see.

  5. Meiner49er says:

    Boebert was always" a liability to Republicans and a pickup opportunity for Democrats." It's a shame Dems spent 5 MUSD supporting far-right candidates in the primaries rather than taking advantage of that opportunity.

  6. Dano says:

    3 more small counties are in: Costilla, Conejos, and San Miguel. Amongst them they might have 10,000 total voters. The needle moved a few more net votes to the left. The number separating Boebert and Frisch is now 1075.

  7. Dano says:

    2:30 pm – Most of the blue counties are in now and Frisch is still trailing by 723 votes.

    Eagle and Alamosa counties are still outstanding with the counts of cured ballots, but their numbers are just not big enough to be of much help. Also Mesa still has to report and those have been favoring Boebert thus far. The one sliver of hope might be La Plata County.

  8. Dano says:

    Pueblo and Eagle have both come in and Boebert is still ahead by 688

  9. Dano says:

    3:15 – La Plata just dropped, Boebert's lead is down to 615

  10. JohnInDenver says:

    Sec of State's spreadsheet says 20/27 counties are updated.

    162,729 to 163,344 ….  Recount threshold would be 816 votes,  Contest shows 615 margin.

  11. Dano says:

    3:40 – Mesa just dropped. Boebert's lead actually went down! She is 557 ahead. Sadly that is pretty much where it will end. There are only a handful of votes outstanding at this point.

  12. Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS says:

    Her lead has dropped to 557 votes?

    This has probably made Jayson’s “thumb” go limp.

  13. Dano says:

    5:00 – with only four outstanding counties (Moffat. Mineral, Otero, and San Juan), which altogether have less than 7000 voters, we have landed at Boebert up by 551 votes. The best either candidate could hope for from the remaining votes to be reported is maybe a dozen at most one way or the other. 

    There will be an automatic recount, but recounts rarely change the outcomes of elections and if they do it might be a vote or two over an area the size of a congressional district.

    • JohnInDenver says:

      Tina Peters' primary recount found a 13 votes swing.  Out of 650,000 or so cast.   Since the Mesa County office won't have forgotten to open all their drop boxes, I don't anticipate there will be major swings.

      • harrydoby says:

        It wasn’t so much a “swing” as it was previously uncounted votes.

        The results barely changed, with Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters picking up 13 more votes in the recount of the votes cast in the June 28 election to determine the Republican candidate for secretary of state. Peters received about 29% of the vote, Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold said in a statement.

        The winner of the GOP primary for the job of overseeing Colorado’s elections, Pam Anderson, received 13 more votes during the recount and finished with 43%. A third candidate, Mike O’Donnell, got 11 more votes.

  14. harrydoby says:

    If Q*bert wins the recount, as with Lyndon Johnson’s infamous squeaker election that earned him the sobriquet “Landslide” Lyndon, I say she should be known as “Mudslide” Boebert.

  15. coloradosane says:

    Whata sad ride this is.  We tried and we fought hard.  We in CD3 will be stuck with a meme for a rep for another 24 months. No one removed my Frisch sign tactically placed along hwy 160 for the past 2 months, until yesterday. Probably a visiting Texan…. I predict Dems and sane Unaffiliated will be working for next two years to change this district to sanity again.  Every conservative friend and acquaintance I know in Costilla and Alamosa counties voted for Frisch happily.  Hope! 

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