UPDATE 3:45PM: In one high-drama day of counting across CD-3 of remaining ballots, incumbent GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert has seen her lead cut by more than half to only 557 votes–well inside the margin for an automatic recount.
UPDATE 2:30PM: Closer and closer, but the remaining ballots are also shrinking:
UPDATE: with 14 of #CO03‘s 27 counties reporting, incl. Garfield, @laurenboebert‘s lead over @AdamForColorado drops to 944 votes — still outside current 813-vote auto recount trigger. Larger counties still to report: Pueblo, Mesa & La Plata. #copoliticshttps://t.co/g62c0iCToa
— Ernest Lee Luning (@eluning) November 17, 2022
Following last night’s deadline to cure ballots with signature or other issues that prevented a small percentage of votes from being tabulated in Colorado’s extremely close CD-3 race, we’re getting our first updates as county clerks begin processing those ballots as well as remaining overseas and military ballots. And the first updates are moving the needle ever so slightly in Democratic challenger Adam Frisch’s direction:
…and now another batch of 69 votes in #CO03 that break 42-27 for Frisch, trimming Lauren Boebert’s lead by another 15 votes down to 1,103. pic.twitter.com/Ma87Wcix8e
— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) November 17, 2022
And with that, Colorado’s political watercooler class can resume mashing our refresh buttons on the Secretary of State’s election results page. We’re watching first to see if the count brings Frisch to within approximately 800 votes, the floating margin based on the final tally that would trigger an automatic recount of the race. That’s enough to keep the uncertainty going into next week, although the outcome will no longer decide control of the U.S. House.
The next benchmark from there would be an outright Frisch victory, which would exceed realistic expectations but is not impossible. Either way, by transforming what should have been an easy ride for freshman GOP scandal-o-matic Rep. Lauren Boebert into a contest that has occupied post-election headlines due to the race coming in so unexpectedly close, Adam Frisch has changed the game in CD-3 for as long Boebert remains in office. After Boebert easily defeated her 2022 primary challenger Don Coram, conventional wisdom took CD-3 off the table leaving Frisch to take Boebert on more or less on his own.
Now that Frisch has shattered Boebert’s invulnerability, she’ll be a top target in 2024 even if she hangs on in 2022’s final count. Boebert has underperformed in two general elections relative to the district’s partisan lean. After these results, Boebert is officially a liability to Republicans and a pickup opportunity for Democrats.
We’ll update as the results trickle in.
It has bounced back to 1108 vote difference. The counties to come this morning so far are Huerfano, Saguache, and Archuleta.
The counties I would expect to move the needle bigger numbers are Mesa, Pueblo, La Plata, Garfield, and maybe Eagle. 4 of those 5 are being carried by Frisch at the moment.
Have you considered that the damage Boebert would do in a narrow House majority might be worth several seats in 2024?
You already have Empty G, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs and others. They're going to do damage that could be worth several seats in '24.
We don't need another whacko.
I’d imagine this entire cliffhanger ordeal has been quite the blow to the nasty sawed-off witch’s inexplicably massive ego and delusions of grandeur and inevitability.
Bet she’s been just tons o’ fun around Casa de Bowburt this past week.
Yeah. But she has no ability to learn from this. She will double down and blame everybody and everything else but herself.
All a given, of course. These people simply don’t ‘do’ growth or ever evolve. Self awareness equates to ‘thinking too much.’ They know but one setting: smug arrogance.
No, I’m just enjoying the complete collapse of her preconceived notions and the destruction of any peace of mind she might have held briefly going into this election cycle. I’d wager she’s now experiencing something akin to PTSD–much as Scott Tipton likely did when she unexpectedly upended him.
Dolores and Las Animas have come in, the vote difference is down to 1098.
There are going to have to be a lot cured ballots in blue-ish counties to help Adam at this point. Traditionally Pueblo seems to always be the last one to report numbers, so we will see.
Boebert was always" a liability to Republicans and a pickup opportunity for Democrats." It's a shame Dems spent 5 MUSD supporting far-right candidates in the primaries rather than taking advantage of that opportunity.
3 more small counties are in: Costilla, Conejos, and San Miguel. Amongst them they might have 10,000 total voters. The needle moved a few more net votes to the left. The number separating Boebert and Frisch is now 1075.
2:30 pm – Most of the blue counties are in now and Frisch is still trailing by 723 votes.
Eagle and Alamosa counties are still outstanding with the counts of cured ballots, but their numbers are just not big enough to be of much help. Also Mesa still has to report and those have been favoring Boebert thus far. The one sliver of hope might be La Plata County.
Pueblo and Eagle have both come in and Boebert is still ahead by 688
3:15 – La Plata just dropped, Boebert's lead is down to 615
Sec of State's spreadsheet says 20/27 counties are updated.
162,729 to 163,344 …. Recount threshold would be 816 votes, Contest shows 615 margin.
Mesa is the only county of any size still outstanding. The rest are all less than 1000 voters total for each. CORRECTION Moffat is still out and they are about 5300 voters
3:40 – Mesa just dropped. Boebert's lead actually went down! She is 557 ahead. Sadly that is pretty much where it will end. There are only a handful of votes outstanding at this point.
I though Moffat had 5,000ish to add.
No they have 5300-ish total voters
Has a recount ever changed an election with >500 vote spread?
I have not heard of one changing more than 5 votes
Her lead has dropped to 557 votes?
This has probably made Jayson’s “thumb” go limp.
5:00 – with only four outstanding counties (Moffat. Mineral, Otero, and San Juan), which altogether have less than 7000 voters, we have landed at Boebert up by 551 votes. The best either candidate could hope for from the remaining votes to be reported is maybe a dozen at most one way or the other.
There will be an automatic recount, but recounts rarely change the outcomes of elections and if they do it might be a vote or two over an area the size of a congressional district.
God, what a ride…
Tina Peters' primary recount found a 13 votes swing. Out of 650,000 or so cast. Since the Mesa County office won't have forgotten to open all their drop boxes, I don't anticipate there will be major swings.
It wasn’t so much a “swing” as it was previously uncounted votes.
If Q*bert wins the recount, as with Lyndon Johnson’s infamous squeaker election that earned him the sobriquet “Landslide” Lyndon, I say she should be known as “Mudslide” Boebert.
LBJ created votes and used those to win. Boebert at least will have won fair & square.
Lbj won fair and square Texas style — meaning he didn’t steal more than his fair share from his segregationist foes.
Whata sad ride this is. We tried and we fought hard. We in CD3 will be stuck with a meme for a rep for another 24 months. No one removed my Frisch sign tactically placed along hwy 160 for the past 2 months, until yesterday. Probably a visiting Texan…. I predict Dems and sane Unaffiliated will be working for next two years to change this district to sanity again. Every conservative friend and acquaintance I know in Costilla and Alamosa counties voted for Frisch happily. Hope!