November 25, 2009 05:00 PM UTC

The Obama legacy hinges on next week.

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• by: Barron X

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The decision on Afghanistan determines if he gets reelected.  It determines what happens in the mid-terms.  It might help determine if health care reform gets passed.  It determines if he makes any changes in bank & finance regulation; climate change; you name it.  

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He has already committed to a troop escalation.  We find out next week how big and for how long.

I believe that the strategy is more important, and defining the mission is more important yet.  But voters are going to focus on how many soldiers are being paraded around for Taliban target practice.  

Unless his escalation is scaled back by next September or so, to fewer than are there today, both houses in Congress will return to GOP control.  

During the campaign he said it would take him 16 months to get us out of Iraq.  After the election, but before taking office, he said 19 months.  That would be August 2010.  The security agreement/ SOFA Bush was forced into by al-Maliki said that all US troops would be out by mid-2010, depending on the results of a referendum scheduled for last month, but still not yet conducted. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/mid… Two days ago, General Odierno said “maybe, maybe not.”

Stan McChrystal said in August that the fate of Afghanistan would be decided in the next 12 to 18 months.  That’s August 2010 to February 2011.  

In November 2010, the economy may be on the mend, the depression may have improved into a recession, but unemployment will not have recovered.  Even if it passed, the benefits of health care reform don’t kick in until after 2012, while we would have to start paying for it next year.  

This is the only thing that he can turn around before the mid-terms.  I don’t like having the Dems in charge, but I sure hope he gets this right.  

What is “getting it right ?”

After a temporary surge of 15,000 troops (and 35,000 contractors,) starting and January and building up through early April,

give “protecting the civilian population ” [aka full-court-press hostile foreign military occupation] the old college try from April through September.  If we kill a bunch of civilians, explain that they were Viet Cong sympathizers.

Then draw back down to less than the 105,000 US troops we have there now, pre-Surge, with a promise to pull out completely by December 2011.    

Good luck and God bless, Mr. President.

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