September 17, 2015 02:27 PM UTC

Code Orange: Will Colorado Delegation Back Boehner as Speaker?

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• by: Colorado Pols

Ohio Republican Rep. John Boehner is facing a critical time in his fifth year as Speaker of the House, and there are persistent rumors out of Washington D.C. that the right-wing of the Republican Party has had their fill of his Orangeness. As Politico reports today, the constant speculation about Boehner’s political future may be exacting a heavy toll on Congressional Republicans:

The only two viable potential replacements for John Boehner as speaker of the House say they back the Ohio Republican and will oppose any effort to remove him from power. But other high-ranking Republicans are testing the waters should the embattled speaker be forced out.

In a pair of statements to POLITICO, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) forcefully backed Boehner and called for an end to the intraparty warfare crippling the House Republican Conference as it faces a possible government shutdown on Oct. 1…

…Boehner’s tenuous hold on power, exacerbated by conservative demands to cut off federal funding to Planned Parenthood, has set off some jockeying for position in the upper ranks of the House GOP hierarchy should he fall.

Several GOP lawmakers have approached McCarthy, majority leader since mid-2014, to discuss Boehner’s fate. The California Republican isn’t entertaining that talk or planning a run, but a number of other Republicans in leadership have started to formally test their own political viability inside the GOP conference in the event that Boehner is forced to give up his post.

Of course, this isn’t the first time that Boehner has been rumored to be on the way out as Speaker, though the rumblings seem more persistent than ever. If disgruntled Republican lawmakers decide to file a motion to “vacate the chair,” Boehner’s fate could rest in the hands of Democrats. If such a motion is filed, Democrats could choose to stay out of the fight by voting “present,” at which point Boehner could hold onto his Speaker’s gavel with a simple majority of Republican votes. If every Republican House member casts a vote, Boehner would need 124 votes to remain Speaker.

If Boehner is indeed challenged as Speaker, how would Colorado’s Congressional delegation vote? We won’t try to guess as to what Democrats might decide, so we’re really talking about 4 votes: Reps. Scott Tipton, Ken Buck, Doug Lamborn, and Mike Coffman. 

Congressmen Ken Buck (Greeley) and Doug Lamborn (Colorado Springs) are not big Boehner fans, and both would likely vote for a new House Speaker if Boehner is challenged.

On the other side, Rep. Scott Tipton (Cortez) and Rep. Mike Coffman (Aurora) would likely support Boehner. Coffman’s decision is perhaps the most interesting to watch in this case; Coffman needs the GOP establishment to stand behind him in his own race for re-election in 2016, which is why he eagerly signed up for the controversial “Patriot Program” organized by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). However, Coffman has started to take public shots at Boehner over the scandal-ridden Aurora VA Hospital project, and there’s no guarantee that he would stick with Boehner if a strong GOP challenge was organized to take him down.

Republican leaders are well aware of the distraction of ongoing speculation about Boehner’s future, but right-wing leaders may not back down from their commitment to defunding Planned Parenthood — even if it leads to the second government shutdown in three years. Coffman has flipped and flopped on virtually ever major issue since he was first elected to Congress in 2008, so if he ends up as a targeted swing vote in an election for Speaker, all bets are off.