Gov. John Hickenlooper.
The last couple of polls from Quinnipiac University of Colorado races have pegged both the U.S. Senate race and the Colorado gubernatorial race with Republican leads considerably in excess of most other polling. In polling speak, Quinnipiac's numbers this year are what you'd call an "outlier"–a poll skewed well away from the results of other contemporary polling.
There are signs today that this is changing, at least in the gubernatorial race. Five weeks ago, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Republican Bob Beauprez leading Gov. John Hickenlooper by ten points, numbers that not even partisan Republicans could feel confident about. A week ago, Quinnipiac had Beauprez up by four points. Today, Q-pac's press release announces a that Hickenlooper has fully closed the gap:
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, behind 50 – 40 percent September 17, now has 45 percent to former U. S. Rep. Bob Beauprez' 44 percent among likely voters, leaving the governor’s race too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. Libertarian candidate Matthew Hess has 1 percent, with 2 percent for Green Party candidate Harry Hempy. Another 7 percent are undecided.
Women are the key to Hickenlooper’s strength, backing the incumbent 49 – 39 percent. Men back Beauprez 49 – 41 percent. Hickenlooper gets 45 percent of independent voters to Beauprez’ 40 percent. Democrats today go to the governor 94 – 4 percent, while Republicans back their challenger 86 – 6 percent.
“Off the mat and clearly building momentum, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper fights off a ten count and enters the final round of the gubernatorial slugfest looking stronger by the day,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Any way you look at this poll it's good news for Hickenlooper. That said, we're still not really convinced at this point that Quinnipiac is polling accurately, and wonder if this sudden shift to Hickenlooper is more "CYA" on the part of Quinnipiac. Quinnipiac's results have been outlier on the other side of this race, too: back in April they had Hickenlooper leading by 9 points, the last such numbers he has seen. Without impugning their metholodology from the peanut gallery, we will say that it's very common for polls to get closer as the election approaches–and sometimes, that happens as much to protect the pollster's reputation as it represents legitimate science. Back in their more partisan days, Rasmussen was infamous–or at least perceived to be–for polling that was heavily GOP biased right up until the last few weeks before election.
Is Quinnipiac really seeing these wild swings, or has the gubernatorial race been close–but still favoring Hickenlooper–since at least early September as almost all other polling has shown? Team Hickenlooper is fine either way, but our gut says the latter.
Quinnipiac: the biggest (national) crap pollster of the 2014 cycle, right up there with Suffolk and foXX nooZe. Absolutely shameless shilling for the GOTP and its benefactors.
Hick was never behind by 10 or anything even approaching that, assuming he was ever behind at all.
The polls are all wrong! Udall by a landslide!
Here, puss puss! Here, puss puss!
Sometimes it's just too easy.
Careful what you joke about … I dunno about a landslide, but a 3-4 point Udall victory seems pretty possible.
A 3-4 point Gardner victory is much more possible according to everyone making the odds.
ROTFLMAO…
What the fuck does that even mean? Everyone making the odds….? What??….
Gessler '14
We're not talking about Udall in this article you imbecile. The Boopray is cheap fashion that is never going to see the inside of the chapel. How about doing some woofing about how gun-grabber Hickenlooper has met his match? Come on asshole go all nuclear on us about how the Boopray is the one item that every woman of child bearing age is dying to get.
Do you know how moronic you sound you dweeb? 2010 polls, remember those? How Senator Ken Buck work out for ya you POS? lol
True, DP. Also true that if Quinnipiac shows its own 10 point BWB lead evaporating, who knows what kind of lead Hick has in the, you know, real world.
I think the Q-Pac folks were smoking some bad weed when they produced that Hickenlooper down by 10 poll. They have slowly come down off that high as their poll has shown the gap narrowing!
Buyer's remorse on the part of all those young women who fell in love with the Beauprez dress.
I guess as with newspapers' "If it bleeds, it leads", polling firms marketing strategy to differentiate themselves from the competition is to promote a narrative with polls showing dramatic swings in voter sentiment and heroic comeback stories.
Nobody will buy just another "Yup, me too" poll result.
Unfortunately you have a point Davie. As Andrew likes to strut his stufft, the polls are now more loaded with slanted samples than ever and just as long as they can capture headlines for their benefactors they has accomplished their true purpose.