If a new poll on the Democratic Primary for Governor is an accurate representation of how results will play out on Tuesday, Attorney General Phil Weiser should be feeling pretty good about his campaign.
Public Policy Polling is out with a head-to-head poll today — conducted on behalf of the pro-Weiser PAC “Fighting for Colorado” — showing Weiser staking a significant lead over Senator Michael Bennet. The results appear to be driven by a disparity in approval ratings between the two candidates. Weiser checks in with a 49-16 favorable/unfavorable rating compared to 48-32 for Bennet.
These numbers also track with a “vibe check” we did on the race last week:
It’s tough to argue that Attorney General Phil Weiser doesn’t have the momentum in the Democratic Primary. Senator Michael Bennet recently made a $1 million loan to his gubernatorial campaign, which is not something you do if you are feeling confident about your position in the final month. Bennet’s campaign says the loan is to counter Weiser’s paid media efforts, but pro-Bennet ads have saturated the airways for weeks.
The obvious takeaway here is that Bennet’s narrative — which has been hard to understand anyway — just isn’t working, no matter how many resources are devoted to paid media. Polling has shown this race tightening in the last month and we appear to be headed toward a very close finish.
Bennet and a Super PAC supporting his candidacy called “Rocky Mountain Way” have outspent Weiser and “Fighting for Colorado” in recent weeks, so resources haven’t been the problem. Bennet’s issue continues to be an ineffective message heavy on platitudes and light on specifics.
Attacks on Weiser centered on claims that he wasn’t aggressive enough in filing lawsuits against the Trump administration may also be backfiring. In order to claim that Weiser hasn’t done enough, the argument necessarily acknowledges that Weiser has done something tangible in countering Trump. That’s a tough sell for voters who are simultaneously hearing about Bennet supporting large numbers of Trump cabinet appointees as a Senator.
Weiser and Bennet are remarkably similar when it comes to broader policy issues. Since both candidates are incumbent elected officials in their own right, this is not really a race about anti-establishment vibes (though Bennet seems to be bearing more of the brunt of that sentiment from voters).
Though this new poll shows that Weiser continues to have the momentum in the gubernatorial primary, we still expect this race to come down to the wire on Tuesday because of the overall quality of both candidates.
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