CO-04 (Special Election) See Full Big Line

(R) Greg Lopez

(R) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Biden*

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%↓

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

(R) Ron Hanks

40%

30%

20%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(R) Deborah Flora

(R) J. Sonnenberg

50%↑

15%

10%↓

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Dave Williams

(R) Jeff Crank

50%↓

50%↑

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

90%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) Brittany Pettersen

85%↑

 

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

(R) Janak Joshi

60%↑

35%↓

30%↑

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
March 12, 2024 01:23 PM UTC

BREAKING: Ken Buck to Resign from Congress and Drop Anvil on Lauren Boebert

  • 47 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Okay, bear with us because this is confusing…

Governor Polis has called a special election in CO-04 to align with the June 25 Primary Election already scheduled. This makes sense, because it saves the state money by not requiring county clerks and the Colorado Secretary of State to conduct two separate elections within a week or two. If you are a registered Republican voter in CO-04, your ballot for the Primary Election will have two different questions (or maybe two different ballots; we’re not sure about that yet). Regardless, those voters will have two questions in this race:

A) Selecting between the Republican vacancy committee nominee and the Democratic vacancy committee nominee for the right to serve the remainder of Buck’s term (through early January 2025);

B) Selecting between Republican candidates for the right to be the GOP nominee in the General Election in November 2024. The winner of that contest would become the next elected Representative (assuming a General Election victory) and would assume office in early January 2025.

This could conceivably be the same person, but for reasons we outlined below, it probably won’t be. Either way, the Republican nominee for the special election still maintains an advantage over the other Republican candidates; if you select, say, Jerry Sonnenberg to win the special election, you might naturally be inclined to just pick him again for the next term in Congress.

—–
Hello, plot twist.

Congressman Ken Buck (R-Greeley) threw another couple of logs on the dumpster fire that is the Republican race for Congress in CO-04 by announcing that he plans to resign his seat AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK (March 22).

Buck announced in late October that he would not seek another term in Congress in 2024, but had not at that point indicated that he would leave the job early. There’s a lot to unwrap with Buck’s surprise decision, which apparently even came as a shock to House Speaker “MAGA” Mike Johnson, so let’s get to it…

Why is Buck resigning now instead of completing his term?

Why, indeed?

There are two reasons, really: 1) Buck truly hates his job, and 2) Republicans are desperately trying to rid themselves of Rep. Lauren Boebert.

Let’s start with the first reason. As “CNN Ken” told, uh, CNN, everything is awful:

 

Post by @gtconway3dg
View on Threads

 

DANA BASH: Is it really that miserable?

BUCK: It is the worst year, of the 9 years and three months that I have been in Congress. And having talked to former Members, it’s the worst year in 40, 50 years to be in Congress?

Buck is not someone who has accomplished much of anything in Congress — his claim to fame is always voting against any budget measure — but it is also true that 2023 was one of the most ineffective Congressional sessions in modern history.

Now, let’s get to Reason #2. Republicans in Colorado and across the country are absolutely sick and tired of Boebert and her neverending quest to be a D-list celebrity instead of a lawmaker. Boebert decided not to seek re-election in CO-03 in part because Republicans were lining up to support Jeff “Bread Sandwich” Hurd instead. Boebert’s move to run in CO-04 instead was initially met with skepticism, but Republicans have grown worried that she might be unstoppable in a Primary Election that could feature (at minimum) a half-dozen different candidates splitting up the vote. When Boebert received the endorsement of former President Donald Trump earlier this month, it raised the level of panic among reasonable Republicans.

 

Why does this hurt Boebert?

“Crap,” probably.

When someone resigns from the U.S. House of Representatives, that seat must be filled via a special election (unless the resignation is within 90 days of a General Election). By resigning now, Buck is ensuring that a special election can take place before the Primary Election on June 25…thus giving the special election winner the advantage of running as an “incumbent.”

According to Colorado statute (CRS 1-4-402), candidates for a special election are drafted by their respective political parties:

(a) Any convention of delegates of a political party or any committee authorized by resolution of the convention shall nominate a candidate to fill a vacancy in the unexpired term of a representative in congress. A state central committee, its managing or executive committee selected pursuant to section 1-3-105 (2), or any other committee designated by the bylaws of the state central committee to convene a convention to nominate a candidate to fill a vacancy in the unexpired term of a representative in congress shall convene the convention and shall provide the procedure for the nomination of the candidate. A copy of the notice of election, as set by the governor and filed with the secretary of state, shall be sent by certified mail to the state chairperson of each political party.

In short, a Republican central committee will determine the Republican candidate to run in a special election (Democrats will also put forward a candidate, but given the heavy-lean toward Republicans in CO-04, that’s probably a bit of a lost cause). Boebert has a big war chest and significantly better name ID than all of the other CO-04 Republican candidates combined. What Boebert likely doesn’t have is the respect or support of the members of a GOP central committee that will choose the Republican nominee for a special election.

The Republican nomination for a special election is more likely to go to someone like former State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg, who has a ton of support from well-known Republican names such as former Senators Wayne Allard, Hank Brown, and Cory Gardner. A special election will generate media coverage and fundraising support that a non-Boebert candidate would otherwise have trouble organizing in the next four months. That’s a pretty big advantage for whomever emerges as the Republican nominee in a special election.

 

So why not Boebert?

House Speaker Mike Johnson, accurately describing this situation with one facial expression.

Here’s the other part of the problem for Boebert: A GOP central committee is unlikely to select her as the nominee in CO-04 given that she just recently moved into the district and currently represents CO-03 in Congress. If the committee nominated Boebert and she won the special election, which would be likely, then it would open up CO-03 to another special election.

The third congressional district is not as overwhelmingly-Republican as CO-04. Furthermore, Democrat Adam Frisch has a massive campaign warchest that dwarfs the accounts of Republicans such as Hurd and Ron Hanks. There is a very good chance, then, that a special election in CO-03 would allow Frisch to go into a General Election as an incumbent — making it significantly more difficult for Republicans to maintain control of that seat.

This also becomes a national issue. While a special election in CO-04 likely wouldn’t change the Republican/Democratic breakdown in the House, such an election in CO-03 very well could. House Speaker Johnson absolutely cannot afford to lose another Republican vote in 2024.

Watch this space for more information as we learn details about next steps leading to a special election…and for what may well end up being Ken Buck’s political legacy.

Comments

47 thoughts on “BREAKING: Ken Buck to Resign from Congress and Drop Anvil on Lauren Boebert

  1. Can someone please conduct a welfare check on Moddy?

    So, if Boebert is lucky enough to get the nod from the Central Committee and wins the special election she’ll have to resign CO-3, creating a new vacancy? But if she doesn’t run in the special she risks losing her chance to remain in Congress?

    You have to admire the humor of White Prosperity Jesus after telling her (paraphrasing) that he’d open doors if she’d move to Windsor. He forgot to tell her it was a trap door.

    This is simply delicious. 

    (My money is still on Jerry.)

    1. Michael, maybe she can have Jayson, or Sherrona Bishop, or Tina Peters run in the special election in CD-4, and keep the seat warm for her while she focuses on her run in the fall. 

      You can't make this stuff up. This is Kenny Boy giving his middle finger to the Party of Trump one last time.

      I'm surprised he gave Johnson one week's notice. I would have expected him to just walk out singing, "Take this job and shove it. I aint working here no more!"

      1. Hope we've seen the last of Boebert come June    She's an embarrassment.  Colorado's 4th district' deserves  someone who cares about the district   Not a showboat  who ran to district 4 thinking she could save the seat she basically threw away in district 3 with her trashy behavior    Bye bye Boebert.  She won't be missed 

      2. Just for the record…Sheronna has moved to Texas, last I heard, and Tina will soon be relocating to a nearby federal penitentiary. And…I don’t think Jayson and the congresswoman are on speaking terms, so I think her selection committee will need to look a little further out..😉

        1. Actually, Tina may be going to a state penitentiary, not federal. Unless there are other charges looming on the horizon. 🙂 

    2. Shame that Democrats in CO-4 aren’t able to vote in the Republican primary for Sonnenberg (although they could if they’re unaffiliated or re-register that way).

  2. So the House is going to have a 3 vote majority? Wild. Would be cool if two Rs could be convinced to switch parties. Cool in the entertaining sense. Otherwise this country is kind of a dumpster fire, politically.

    1. It's unlikely any of them would switch parties, but ……

      It's quite possible one or two of them could be enticed or provoked into filing a motion to vacate the chair.   🙂

       

      1. Who was the little guy that stepped in as temp while they were trying to get a majority for Johnson?  Wore a bowtie? Had the regular Speakers chair temporarily replaced because his feet dangled and he looked like a Munchkin while sitting there?  He’s surely had enough time to get tanned, rested and ready for the next round of Hunger Games? 

        1. He's not running for reelection either    The crazies ..like Boebert. Are trying to run everyone off.  Hear she's trashing ken buck today.  Typical of Boebert   
           

  3. Can polis delay the special election to late July – the window that is 32 days from a primary and still more than 90 days from a general ? 

     

        1. He likes to keep his location largely unknown–probably in paranoid terror of the UN or Biden execution squads or some other lunatic fringe conspiracy–but he flutters around Fremont County (and he's kind of the perfect mascot for that loony place).

    1.  I think it's too late for her to run back and register in district 3 isn't it?  Guess her little stunt backfired.   Bet district is lol at this  —     Hope the Boebert show is over.  She's exhausting. 

      1. BoBo's political career died on December 27. 

        It's just taken her a while to realize it but she's had a fork (probably a knife) in her back this whole time.

        1. You know, like her role model, Sarah "I Can See Russia From My Window" Palin, it's not about public service but instead, it's about the Benjamins.

          She will probably leave office at the first of next year to take a position at Fox News or host a reality TV show (Lauren Bobert's Wild West Colorado) or put her name of the cover of a ghost-written book. Or all of the above.

    1. That's very interesting. So technically they could elect one person to complete the term and select a different candidate in the primary?  Seems very chaotic and I am here for it.

      1. Come June 25, the 4th District will have

          * all registered voters getting a ballot for the "special" election, with names of a nominee from the Republican central committee, a nominee from the Democratic committee, minor party nominees, possibly Unaffiliated candidates who can notify the Secretary of State of an intent to run and then submit petitions with 1,500 valid signatures — and blank lines for persons who certify to the Secretary of State that they wish to be "write-in" candidates. When votes are counted and the election is certified, the winner can go to Washington and be sworn in.

          * Republicans or Democrats who are registered with each party (by June 3) will get primary ballots.  Unaffiliated voters get both, and can vote one or the other. 

        Many possibilities for partisan & multi-partisan hi-jinks in the conjoined elections.

    1. She has been distracted with family business in Garfield Co. Restraining orders and shit. Apparently, one of the boys is terrified of his father.

       

  4. So Bozobert will not be the nominee for the special election.  (It'll probably be Sonnenberg.). She and Rump will cry that the swamp is taking out the true patriot via unelected elites, blah, blah. 
    The result of all this is that it tightens the race for the general election GOP primary.  But, it is not a slam dunk for either her or Sonnenberg.  Especially so if she can get the other nut cases to drop out of the general election leaving a two person race.  She'll run ads with Rump endorsing her which will dampen Sonnenberg's "incumbency" advantage.  So a race that seemed to be in Bozobert's advantage may now be a true tossup.  Game on.

    1. Is there a scenario where this throws the seat to the Dems? Like the incumbent does not win the primary but stages a write-in campaign against Boebert, splitting the R votes?

      1. Seems unlikely to me — Active voter registration in CO-4 as of Feb 1, 2024 had 89,950 Democrats, 187,809 Republicans, and 246,324 Unaffiliated.  Buck won the 2022 election with 60.9% and Democrat McCorkle got 36.6%. Hard for me to see where Republicans would split their votes or stay home — even harder for me to consider that any sizeable number wind up voting for a Democrat.

      2. Republicans almost always fall in line and back their nominee, unlike Democrats who prefer to vote their conscience.

        The last time an independent conservative served as a spoiler at the national level was in 1992 with Ross Perot who took 19% of the popular vote most of which came out of Daddy Bush's hide.

        But that was before hyperpartisanship occurred so it's unlikely that would happen again.

        In 2010, Tom Tancredo ran as the Constitution Party nominee against Hickenlooper and the Republican nominee, Dan Maes, but since Hick got more than 50%, no one can blame "Tank" for helping elect a Dem with only a plurality.

        Anyone know of any US House or Senate race in the past 30 years where a loser in the GOP nominating process ran as an independent, siphoned off some votes, and in so doing, gave the Dem a plurality win?

        1. There is a "sore loser" law — but given recent Supreme Court decisions saying election for federal office ought to be constrained ONLY by the Constitutional provisions for office, I suspect if someone REALLY wanted to play that way, they could get a court ruling striking down such a law.

    2. There is also the history that anyone that Biden's predessessor endorses gives them the kiss of political death (eg: Hershal Walker) mainly because they are terrible people. Conventional wisdom is that it is a powerful endorsement but it's really just bad juju.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

39 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!