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February 26, 2024 11:52 AM UTC

Iffy Text Poll Nonetheless Describes Boebert's Narrow Path To Victory

  • 9 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Lauren Boebert.

The Courthouse News Service reports on a newly-released poll from Florida-based Kaplan Strategies, run by the former managing partner of the better-known PR firm Gravis Research Doug Kaplan, that shows carpetbagging Republican reprobate Rep. Lauren Boebert with a small plurality of support in the jam-packed race for retiring Rep. Ken Buck’s CO-04 seat:

Kaplan Strategies, based in Kissimmee, Fla., polled 558 registered voters living in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District on Feb. 24, of whom 57% are registered Republicans, and 43% intend to vote as unaffiliated.

Thirty-two percent of people polled said they plan to vote for Lauren Boebert, while 49% indicated they are undecided and 19% chose from the nine other candidates running.

“She is the favorite but vulnerable,” political strategist Doug Kaplan told Courthouse News over the phone…

With almost 50% of polled voters in the race so far undecided, there’s obviously plenty of time and space for one of Boebert’s numerous challengers to consolidate support–which former Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg is hoping to do by locking up a growing list of Republican elder statesmen endorsements (and ex-Sen. Cory Gardner, who is neither an elder nor a statesman). Boebert’s biggest endorsement at the moment is House Speaker Mike Johnson, though as we’ve discussed the relationship between those two appears to be souring as fast as it grew. And despite the large undecided response to this text poll, Boebert appears to have a hard ceiling:

While Boebert proved to be the only candidate ranking with double-digit support, 67% of voters polled said they would not consider voting for her. [Pols emphasis]

Although it’s the first polling in the CO-04 Republican primary to represent itself as scientific, we caution against putting too much stock into these results based on the text-message methodology and 538’s “C” grade of Kaplan’s former firm Gravis Research. With that said, the path for Boebert to victory in the CO-04 GOP primary is accurately depicted in these results: a large field of candidates unable to consolidate and deliver a single opponent who can knock Boebert out, and Boebert taking the nomination with (or less than) the 33% of primary voters who haven’t completely written Boebert off.

To prevent that, the 67% of CO-04 voters who don’t want Boebert representing them need to settle on an alternative–and soon.

Comments

9 thoughts on “Iffy Text Poll Nonetheless Describes Boebert’s Narrow Path To Victory

  1. I always like to hear Michael Bowman's insights on this because I have absolutely no sense of things in CD-4 outside of the Denver metro part of it.  

     

    1. I stand by my opinion this is Jerry's race to lose, but I am not discounting one of the Douglas County candidates becoming a dark horse (simply because of the concentration of voters and local name recognition). #GrannyGropert will soon be groveling for a POTUS appointment in a theoretical Trump Administration, or a special correspondent for NewsMaxxx. 

      1. Thanks, Michael.  As a Douglas-county-adjacent voter, I can never really figure out what will happen with that county in an R-primary.  General is predictable as hell, though I do note that there is a lot of development in the northern part of the county where the population is more diverse, so there could be a shift over time (but not yet). 

         

        1. Douglas County is generally a mystery to me, too. Weld County has historically been the CD-4 honey pot. Jerry is affable and well-liked on the plains. He played his cards well while in the legislature – it would be difficult to find a policy subject where they could beat him up for his votes (although I have no doubt Gropert will come up with some hairbrained ad or two laden with lies). While we clearly had our differences on mandates, green energy and rain barrels I understand he had to play the game, as disconnected as it was to math and reality at times.  

  2. 32% could win her the nomination if, and only if, the rest of the primary voters splinter among the other candidates.

    Let's just call it what is it …. the Doug Lamborn Strategy.

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