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April 11, 2023 10:17 am

New Mountaineer Survey: Boebert Remains Weak, Unpopular, Dead Heat vs. Adam Frisch 45-45%

  • by: ProgressNow Colorado

(America’s most vulnerable? — Promoted by Colorado Pols)

The results of new Mountaineer Research polling released by ProgressNow Colorado and Global Strategy Group focused on Colorado’s Third Congressional District show that embattled Rep. Lauren Boebert is paying a price for ignoring the issues most relevant to her constituents, and is locked in a tied race against Democrat Adam Frisch despite the district’s substantial Republican advantage.

“After coming very close (546 votes) to defeat last November, Lauren Boebert had a chance to change course and begin to address the issues that matter most in Southern and Western Colorado,” said ProgressNow Colorado Executive Direct Sara Loflin. “Instead, Boebert continued to fixate on politics and conspiracy theories instead of the needs of her district. As a result, Boebert’s standing worsened substantially since we polled in 2021. In a district that shouldn’t be at risk for Republicans, Boebert is once again setting her party up for a desperate fight to keep this seat.”

“Boebert’s standing has weakened since we last polled the district in 2021,” said Andrew Baumann of Global Strategy Group. “Voters overwhelmingly believe that she is focused on promoting herself and defending Donald Trump – not on the issues that matter to them. Boebert has a very defined negative brand: voters see her as a far-right extremist who is out of touch and focused on the wrong things. As a result, even though the district tilts toward Republicans on the generic ballot by 11 points, according to our poll, Boebert is tied with Adam Frisch 45%-45%.”

“Perhaps more concerning for the incumbent, Boebert trails Frisch by 19 points among the 61 percent of the electorate that can ID both candidates,” Baumann said. “This indicates Frisch has significant room to pull ahead of Boebert if he can build his name ID further. On the other hand, the MAGA brand is very unpopular, even in a right-leaning district, with unaffiliated voters disliking both MAGA Republicans and MAGA extremists.”

Read the April 2023 issue of the Mountaineer here.
For the complete poll memo, click here.
Survey toplines availble here.

Research presented in the Mountaineer is the result of a survey conducted between March 29 and April 2, 2023, among 500 likely voters and an additional 100 unaffiliated likely voters in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level for CO-03 voters is +/- 4.4%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.


12 thoughts on “New Mountaineer Survey: Boebert Remains Weak, Unpopular, Dead Heat vs. Adam Frisch 45-45%

  1. Anytime I see the phrase "likely voters," I twitch.

    Reading the memo, I find

    While this is a poll of likely 2024 voters in the current district lines, the 2021 poll was a poll of registered voters in the old lines, so comparisons to that poll are not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison. However, the new lines are more conservative than the old and an LV electorate is more conservative than an RV one, so this poll has a more GOP-friendly universe than the 2021 poll – which means Boebert’s drop in standing even more pronounced than these numbers show.

    If there are more polls with the same methods involved showing a trend line, I'll be more impressed.

        1. That's the way they roll in the Boebert family. Jayson was 23 when he got 17 year old Lauren pregnant. It's why she was so cagey about her actual birthday ( and still is).

          1. So, isn’t banging the assistant manager at the local McDonald’s on every oilfield roughneck’s bucket list?!? I mean, come on, there’s gotta’ an O&G exemption for this somewhere?

            It’s kinda’ just like that movie with Richard Gere and Debra Winger, if Winger were about 15 years younger and still in High School! Wait, no, it’s more like that John Travolta and Debra Winger movie, if Winger were about 15 years younger and still in High School.

            1. “So, isn’t banging the assistant manager at the local McDonald’s on every oilfield roughneck’s bucket list?!?”

              Noop…it’s a Training Manual thing. Not bucket list.

              re: ‘Acts Necessary for Promotion’

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