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March 21, 2012 08:16 PM UTC

Sealing The Pyrrhic Deal

  • 12 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Chicago Tribune:

Mitt Romney’s commanding win in the Illinois primary stamps him — once and for all — as the overwhelming, indisputable and probably uncatchable favorite to lead Republicans into the fall campaign against President Obama.

There are two tracks to the GOP race, now in its third month of balloting, and the former Massachusetts governor is winning both.

The most important is the fight to accumulate the 1,144 convention delegates needed to secure the nomination. Romney has done consistently well in that effort and helped himself greatly Tuesday by winning the overwhelming majority of delegates…

Rick Santorum was again forced to cede a significant chunk of Illinois delegates when he failed to qualify for the ballot in four of the state’s 18 congressional districts. Slowly but inexorably, that organizational disadvantage is undermining Santorum’s slim chances of overtaking Romney and snatching the nomination away.

Next up is Louisiana, another conservative Southern state where Mitt Romney is not favored to win–illustrating that even as Romney consolidates enough support to likely win the GOP primary without a brokered party convention, he still can’t close the deal with the conservative wing of his own party. This deficiency will remain painfully visible for Romney as long as Rick Santorum stays in–no matter how much “inevitability” Romney gets from big states.

And for a host of reasons, it’s support that Romney may not recover. It’s not that conservatives would vote for Barack Obama, of course, but they might really be okay with not compromising.

Comments

12 thoughts on “Sealing The Pyrrhic Deal

  1. There is NO evidence that conservatives would actually stay home and allow Barack Obama a second term. Faced with the choice of a moderate Republican or another four years of Obama, the choice for conservatives is completely clear.

    On the contrary, progressive Democrats seem to be more upset with Obama than conservatives are with Romney. It’s possible your spin is true; just in reverse.

    1. It’s Political Science 101.

      If the base isn’t enthusiastic about a candidate — they knock on less doors, make less phone calls, less letters, etc. The base might very well “vote” for Romney, but they won’t work for him.

      Not to mention, if Romney is top of the ticket, there is growing room for a conservative third party candidate.  

      1. If the base isn’t enthusiastic about a candidate — they knock on less doors, make less phone calls, less letters, etc. The base might very well “vote” for Romney, but they won’t work for him.

        Allow me to change one word.

        If the base isn’t enthusiastic about a candidate — they knock on less doors, make less phone calls, less letters, etc. The base might very well “vote” for Obama, but they won’t work for him.

        Haven’t I seen this opinion expressed right here at Colorado Pols by many readers?

        1. Women who feel threatened by your side’s war on them, for instance, in sate legislatures across the nation. Hispanic citizens fearful of being wrongly detained as illegal or of being the ones most often denied the right to vote for inadequate ID.  Soon to be seniors who are now being reminded of the only slightly modified GOP plan to hand them a coupon and wish them good luck for healthcare. Volunteers skew heavily toward older voters and women, you know.

          But maybe  nobody should be worried about Mitten’s allegedly  “severe” conservatism after all.

          How about this completely in context exchange between a cable TV host and a Romney campaign  operative.  No need for a link.  You can see it on any cable channel and no doubt on network news tonight.  It’s everywhere.

          HOST: Is there a concern that Santorum and Gingrich might force the governor to tack so far to the right it would hurt him with moderate voters in the general election?

          FEHRNSTROM: Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all of over again

          So who cares about everything Mitten has been saying to pander to the conservative base.  That’s so 5 minutes ago.  He can  simply say entirely different things to the center in the general.  But as you like to say … nice try. This is the age of permanent preservation of everything on video, not the era of etch-a-sketch, the one the GOP wants us all to return to. Dems will never allow any of those inconvenient words to just be shaken away as if they never existed.  They’ll definitely be kept hanging around long after Newt is no longer around to use this latest gaffe, as he is so gleefully doing right now, as a point of attack.

          Things change but Mittens’ (you can use an apostrophe this way to show possession if the name or word ends in “s”) complete willingness to say anything while apparently holding no actual convictions doesn’t seem to, does it?

          1. A month ago Obama had my vote but no time or money from me. This last month brught back home to me just how big a difference it is between us Democrats and the insane people who have taken over the GOP.

            1. and the source of much exasperation on the part of those of us you think have been so mean to you. In honor of this revelation I promise to try my best to be nicer.

    2. What’s “clear” about the choice of the guy whose designated spokesman says this when asked if the primary made him shift too far right for the general election:

      “I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch A Sketch,” Fehrnstrom told CNN’s John Fugelsang. “You can kind of shake it up and restart all of over again.”

      Look, you can praise many things about Romney – his business experience, his hair, his tough-love approach to canine transport” – but “clear” is simply not an adjective that possibly describe someone whose campaign spokesman says this, and who has 100% reversed his position on health insurance mandates, abortion, gay rights, and tax hikes.

  2. The results I’ve looked at seem to show that Santorum + Gingrich vote was still more than the Romney vote, even with Santorum kept off the ballots in some of the Congressional Districts (an unfair sounding practice in the first place).  

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