August 12, 2010 04:16 AM UTC

"It's Bucking Amaesing!"

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• by: ClubTwitty

The ‘bad year for incumbents’ cliché, popular with the punditry, took a bit of a beating last night, as the strong victory by Sen. Michael Bennet helped show in Colorado.  But the anti-establishment fervor appears strong, most prevalent on the Republican side.

Colorado’s record Primary turnout was marked by a surge of first-time primary voters–a fact that likely benefited Bennet on the Democratic ballot and Maes and Buck on the GOP.

The freshly minted Obama voters of 2008 apparently still stand behind their president.  At least enough not to be scared away by his endorsement in spite of the now forgotten, but once incessant, prattle of the chattering classes.  This bodes well for the Democrats this November.

A review of the Republican side shows a kind of reverse of the Democratic–where record voters (and new voters) turned out to support the incumbent. New voter energy on the GOP side was likely focused on the insurgent candidates and stopping the campaigns of Scott McInnis and Jane Norton.

If this dynamic is correct–‘new’ Obama/Dem voters and ‘new’ Tea Party/GOP voters are engaged in the mid-term–then that offers a better set up for the Democrats.  

Democratic turnout shows that voters, including the 2008 wave, are enthused enough about not returning to the bad old days that they will come out and vote.  This gives more room for the Democratic candidates to negotiate for those votes in the middle, the key to any successful statewide run.  

Republican candidates, on the other hand, must be careful not to neglect the Tea Partiers when they craft their GOTV strategies and campaigns. Democrats will be able to run on ‘finishing the job (of cleaning up the mess left by the last GOP government)’ while the GOP candidates will have to tread carefully to not upset the birthers, while stating support for the ‘eggmendment,’ an ‘Arizona-style’ law, and forcing rape victims to bear children.  

The GOP dance will be an attempt to appeal to the crazies while appealing to the moderates, no easy task.  (The Tanc complication just adds another layer of fun to the governor’s race).  

Last night’s Primary wins are, perhaps, the highwater mark of Colorado’s Tea Parties.

The ‘ameasing’ victories of two GOP contenders ‘bucking’ the establishment show that successful candidates–through skill or blind luck–can reach (slightly) beyond the confines of the Tea Party. For a lot of people, the plagiarism issue–and especially how the campaign dealt with it (or attempted to)–was the final blow to McInnis’ character, which a number already considered questionable. Maes was able to ride the Tea Party vote coupled with the Anybody-But-McInnis vote to a tight win.

Dan Maes’ victory as the unMcInnis has to leave a few wondering why they didn’t get or stay in the race. Think what Cleve could have done with  a few thousand bucks.

While Twitty’s pick had Scooter by a ‘bicycle tread’ I cannot fain disappointment that Maes is the man, as I do need material.  I also think at the end of the day more of the Republican-inclined middle could have voted McInnis.  A successful businessman and mayor is the kind of Democrat they could support if they just can’t pull the lever for the crazy.  

Also bucking the queen and kingmakers, in the other big statewide race, the Weld County DA is a different type of candidate than Dan Maes. That is to say, a real one.  No Tea Party gimmick, Buck is savvy enough to unite a broader group of Republicans than only the Tea Party inclined.  

The Republicans–and their money constituents–will quickly coalesce around Buck, while the governor’s race is widely regarded as a train-wreck. Buck will be able to mount a formidable run against Bennet, but his positioning may be a problem. Which gets back to the danger the Tea Party and its newly energized voters bring to bear on the GOP’s flagship candidates.  

That same newly energized base–with it’s new voters–needs their strokes.  Buck will have a hard time walking back his ‘no abortions for rape and incest victims’ and other statements.  As much as he might wish he could make the Tea Partiers ‘shut up’ they have yet to fully extract their pound of flesh.  

The zenith of the Colorado Tea Parties may have been last night.  A nadir may be waiting around the corner.  Whether its personality or position, the crazy doesn’t sell well in Colorado. Which is why, when you look at this election–the trends, the opportunities–and the path the GOP has laid before itself in Colorado, you have to just smile and say “it’s bucking ameasing.”