November 21, 2011 11:23 PM UTC

Obama's "Base Problem" Doesn't Really Exist?

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• by: Colorado Pols

Interesting stuff from our friends at “The Fix“:

One of the most persistent story lines for the president has been that the liberal left has grown increasingly dissatisfied with his actions (or inaction) on some of its priorities – including single-payer health insurance, the extension of the George W. Bush tax cuts and whether to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

But an examination of the polling data among key subgroups that constitute Obama’s base makes clear that he has as much support from them as any modern president seeking a second term.

“There is one immutable fact about President Obama’s reelection chances: Nobody has a more solid 44 percent base than he does,” Democratic pollster Peter Hart wrote in a not-entirely-uncritical memo assessing the state of political affairs a year out from the election…

…At the heart of the president’s enduring strength among his base are African Americans who have never wavered in any meaningful way after 95 percent of black voters opted for the Illinois senator in 2008…

…That’s a reality that even Republicans acknowledge.

“Anyone who thinks African Americans are not going to turn out and vote in numbers similar to 2008 are fooling themselves,” said Glen Bolger, a leading GOP pollster. “There is no way they are going to say, ‘Well, we didn’t get everything we wanted from making history, so let’s sit on our hands.’ ”

The story in “The Fix” highlights a point that we’ve been making repeatedly here: President Obama’s approval ratings are a number that are measured against himself, and not against a hypothetical opponent. In other words, as much as voters may or may not be disappointed with his first term, they still have to choose between re-election and the Republican candidate — the latter of which appears to be a less-than-enthralling choice no matter who emerges from the primary.