Interesting stuff from our friends at “The Fix“:
One of the most persistent story lines for the president has been that the liberal left has grown increasingly dissatisfied with his actions (or inaction) on some of its priorities – including single-payer health insurance, the extension of the George W. Bush tax cuts and whether to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
But an examination of the polling data among key subgroups that constitute Obama’s base makes clear that he has as much support from them as any modern president seeking a second term.
“There is one immutable fact about President Obama’s reelection chances: Nobody has a more solid 44 percent base than he does,” Democratic pollster Peter Hart wrote in a not-entirely-uncritical memo assessing the state of political affairs a year out from the election…
…At the heart of the president’s enduring strength among his base are African Americans who have never wavered in any meaningful way after 95 percent of black voters opted for the Illinois senator in 2008…
…That’s a reality that even Republicans acknowledge.
“Anyone who thinks African Americans are not going to turn out and vote in numbers similar to 2008 are fooling themselves,” said Glen Bolger, a leading GOP pollster. “There is no way they are going to say, ‘Well, we didn’t get everything we wanted from making history, so let’s sit on our hands.’ ”
The story in “The Fix” highlights a point that we’ve been making repeatedly here: President Obama’s approval ratings are a number that are measured against himself, and not against a hypothetical opponent. In other words, as much as voters may or may not be disappointed with his first term, they still have to choose between re-election and the Republican candidate — the latter of which appears to be a less-than-enthralling choice no matter who emerges from the primary.
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Everyone in the Democratic base is going to vote for Obama, except for a few leftists unhappy with various sellouts. That’s not the point.
The point is that Obama needs the Democratic base to be motivated not just to vote, but to contribute money and spend time campaigning for him in order to sway independents. And that’s not going to happen this year.
Hey, Pols — If Pres Obama ignores or tries to minimize his base problem, he will pay a huge price. Just because the Republicans have a huge lineup of doofuses trying to run for President, doesn’t mean Obama doesn’t have an important problem: a serious lack of enthusiasm from what was his base. Unless Obama has a plan for voter suppression on the Repub side, or some other trickery, he needs to worry about 2012.
Send them free tickets for a vacation getaway in the Bahamas next November?
we’ll have a 9-yr-old kid do the nasty work of cleaning the school AND casting ballots for the Repubs who no doubt need to get out on the golf course, or on their yacht, or . . .
“they still have to choose between re-election and the Republican candidate”
What do the words 3rd party mean to you?
We (as voters) have always had many other candidates to vote. They are not going to win, but you can still vote for them.
President Obama has not told us what he intends to accomplish in the next four years. As it stands, we’re facing four more years of partisan griddlock on every important issue.
Of course, I will vote for Obama — I’m part of the base. I fear what Independents do if they think in terms of “Four more years of this?”
We have all bemoaned Dem messaging that is just plain pathetic. The general election narrative is being established now, believe it or not. Dems have got to get in front and pin the blame on the GOP. It’s not Congress that has record low approval ratings, it’s the GOP Congress. Dems don’t want to raise taxes on everyone, just the wealthy. It was the GOP that wanted to shutdown the government over a silly debt limit. It was the GOP that caused the downgrade of our credit rating. Etc. If they don’t do this, then you get the David Gergen’s of the world telling everyone that it is the fault of both parties. Wrong!!!
Maybe the message should be to not just re-elect President Obama, but to also give him a Dem House majority and a filibuster-proof Senate. Combine that with a 4 year plan of action, and we might have something to offer Independents.
“Four more years of this?”
We can’t afford four more years of this. Four more years of gridlock, four more years of stagnation, four more years of an obstructionist Republican Party in Congress. The voting public now has a clear choice.
Vote for Democrats if you want:
Or vote for Republicans if you want:
Those are your choices, voters. If you believe having government get out of the way in favor of corporate America who is consistently handing out fewer jobs, lower wages, and stingier benefits while attempting to reduce their accountability for public safety, vote Republican. If you like the other plan better, vote Democratic. But we can’t have another four years of this.
GOP:
All about religion anywhere, anytime. Finally outlawing abortion. Make science subservient to religious and political dogma
Democrats:
Nope, not gonna stand for any of that nonsense!
Vote for Democrats: To allow individuals their own religious choices, but not allow other peoples’ religions to dictate your actions. And to allow sound scientific results to guide policy-making.
Vote for Republicans: To place one religious group’s political preferences above others, and to allow political dogma to override sound science research when making political decisions.
I like your phrasing — if I were among friends. However, for actual bumper sticker purposes, it needs to be more visceral (and succinct).
Not that mine is all that great, but it did get a reaction 😉
We had that lovely majority for ’09 & ’10 and what did we do?
Yes I’ll vote Democratic next year. But I’ll do do knowing full well that even if Congress is 100% Democratic it will remain under the control of Wall St and the multinationals that control Congress through their campaign donations.
We suck less is a valid reason to vote Democratic. But is sure doesn’t inspire people.
Of course, you realize that means more ConservaDems like Betsy Markey replacing the most vulnerable Republicans, reflecting their moderate-to-conservative districts.
Just sayin’ they won’t be members of the Borg Hive mind, so if it came to pass, we’d actually move somewhat left, but not all the way to the single-payer, soak-the-rich left.
I say that is a good thing. But if the agenda for the next four years is “Break the Gridlock for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs” through smart investments in schools, modernizing our industrial base and major infrastructure, then I think we could get the Independents back in droves.