CO-04 (Special Election) See Full Big Line

(R) Greg Lopez

(R) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Biden*

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%↓

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

(R) Ron Hanks

40%

30%

20%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(R) Deborah Flora

(R) J. Sonnenberg

30%↑

15%↑

10%↓

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Dave Williams

(R) Jeff Crank

50%↓

50%↑

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

90%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) Brittany Pettersen

85%↑

 

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

(R) Janak Joshi

60%↑

35%↓

30%↑

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
November 21, 2011 11:23 PM UTC

Obama's "Base Problem" Doesn't Really Exist?

  • 13 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Interesting stuff from our friends at “The Fix“:

One of the most persistent story lines for the president has been that the liberal left has grown increasingly dissatisfied with his actions (or inaction) on some of its priorities – including single-payer health insurance, the extension of the George W. Bush tax cuts and whether to close the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

But an examination of the polling data among key subgroups that constitute Obama’s base makes clear that he has as much support from them as any modern president seeking a second term.

“There is one immutable fact about President Obama’s reelection chances: Nobody has a more solid 44 percent base than he does,” Democratic pollster Peter Hart wrote in a not-entirely-uncritical memo assessing the state of political affairs a year out from the election…

…At the heart of the president’s enduring strength among his base are African Americans who have never wavered in any meaningful way after 95 percent of black voters opted for the Illinois senator in 2008…

…That’s a reality that even Republicans acknowledge.

“Anyone who thinks African Americans are not going to turn out and vote in numbers similar to 2008 are fooling themselves,” said Glen Bolger, a leading GOP pollster. “There is no way they are going to say, ‘Well, we didn’t get everything we wanted from making history, so let’s sit on our hands.’ ”

The story in “The Fix” highlights a point that we’ve been making repeatedly here: President Obama’s approval ratings are a number that are measured against himself, and not against a hypothetical opponent. In other words, as much as voters may or may not be disappointed with his first term, they still have to choose between re-election and the Republican candidate — the latter of which appears to be a less-than-enthralling choice no matter who emerges from the primary.  

Comments

13 thoughts on “Obama’s “Base Problem” Doesn’t Really Exist?

  1. Everyone in the Democratic base is going to vote for Obama, except for a few leftists unhappy with various sellouts. That’s not the point.

    The point is that Obama needs the Democratic base to be motivated not just to vote, but to contribute money and spend time campaigning for him in order to sway independents. And that’s not going to happen this year.

    1. Hey, Pols — If Pres Obama ignores or tries to minimize his base problem, he will pay a huge price.  Just because the Republicans have a huge lineup of doofuses trying to run for President, doesn’t mean Obama doesn’t have an important problem: a serious lack of enthusiasm from what was his base.  Unless Obama has a plan for voter suppression on the Repub side, or some other trickery, he needs to worry about 2012.  

        1. we’ll have a 9-yr-old kid do the nasty work of cleaning the school AND casting ballots for the Repubs who no doubt need to get out on the golf course, or on their yacht, or . . .  

  2. “they still have to choose between re-election and the Republican candidate”

    What do the words 3rd party mean to you?

    We (as voters) have always had many other candidates to vote. They are not going to win, but you can still vote for them.

  3. President Obama has not told us what he intends to accomplish in the next four years.  As it stands, we’re facing four more years of partisan griddlock on every important issue.  

    Of course, I will vote for Obama — I’m part of the base.  I fear what Independents do if they think in terms of “Four more years of this?”  

    We have all bemoaned Dem messaging that is just plain pathetic.  The general election narrative is being established now, believe it or not.  Dems have got to get in front and pin the blame on the GOP.  It’s not Congress that has record low approval ratings, it’s the GOP Congress.  Dems don’t want to raise taxes on everyone, just the wealthy.  It was the GOP that wanted to shutdown the government over a silly debt limit.  It was the GOP that caused the downgrade of our credit rating.  Etc.  If they don’t do this, then you get the David Gergen’s of the world telling everyone that it is the fault of both parties.  Wrong!!!

    Maybe the message should be to not just re-elect President Obama, but to also give him a Dem House majority and a filibuster-proof Senate.  Combine that with a 4 year plan of action, and we might have something to offer Independents.

    1. “Four more years of this?”

      We can’t afford four more years of this.  Four more years of gridlock, four more years of stagnation, four more years of an obstructionist Republican Party in Congress.  The voting public now has a clear choice.

      Vote for Democrats if you want:

      • Regulation of the banks, insurance companies, and investment firms that created (and then invested in) sham investments that got us in to this mess.
      • To repair our nation’s crumbling roads and bridges and put people to work while it’s most cost-effective to do so.
      • To fix the Federal budget with a balanced plan that meets people’s needs and means.
      • To preserve and fix Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as needed in the most effective and least invasive possible manner.
      • To cut out ineffective tax breaks to profitable corporations who don’t need them, and to invest in our country’s future industries that need start-up investments to compete with other countries.

      Or vote for Republicans if you want:

      • To eliminate regulations on corporations, even though they’ve proven they’ll abuse the regulations they already have.
      • To put fiscal conservatism above the need to maintain our road and bridge system – to put off repairs until later when they’re more expensive, in order to balance the budget now.
      • To balance the Federal budget solely by cutting Federal programs such as public education, monitoring of toxic emissions by the EPA, and mine safety inspections.
      • To radically re-work Social Security as a 401(k) type investment fund, to dissolve Medicare over time through a steadily decreasing voucher for more expensive private insurance, and to place even larger burdens of Medicaid on the states and then allowing them to offer lower service levels in return.  And while doing these, create a massive increase in the Federal debt due to the transition.
      • To reform and simplify the tax code by placing an even larger burden on the lower and middle class taxpayers (that’s taxpayers making up to about $150,000 per year) while having the richest Americans paying less than they are today.

      Those are your choices, voters.  If you believe having government get out of the way in favor of corporate America who is consistently handing out fewer jobs, lower wages, and stingier benefits while attempting to reduce their accountability for public safety, vote Republican.  If you like the other plan better, vote Democratic.  But we can’t have another four years of this.

      1. GOP:

        All about religion anywhere, anytime.  Finally outlawing abortion. Make science subservient to religious and political dogma

        Democrats:

        Nope, not gonna stand for any of that nonsense!

        1. Vote for Democrats: To allow individuals their own religious choices, but not allow other peoples’ religions to dictate your actions.  And to allow sound scientific results to guide policy-making.

          Vote for Republicans: To place one religious group’s political preferences above others, and to allow political dogma to override sound science research when making political decisions.

          1. I like your phrasing — if I were among friends.  However, for actual bumper sticker purposes, it needs to be more visceral (and succinct).

            Not that mine is all that great, but it did get a reaction 😉

      2. We had that lovely majority for ’09 & ’10 and what did we do?

        • Financial reform? Our two Democratic senators voted against the amendments that would have instituted real reform. Our Democratic president allowed Geitner to veto his decision to close down Citi. There has been almost no charges brought against the people who acted illegally. The list goes on…
        • After the initial stimulus bill there was not even a real attempt to increase infrastructure investment. They won’t even try.
        • Again on address the deficit there’s been no real action. The one time when Obama had the opportunity to do so, instead of vetoing the extension of the Bush tax cuts he embraced them. Yes he wanted it without the break for high earners, but the yes/no choice he was given he came down on the side of spend much more than you take in.
        • Preserve medicare, medicaid, etc – the way to do that is to address the cost side of medical expenses. On that Obama did nothing. Senator Bennet said repeatedly early on he would not vote for medical reform that did not address costs, then did exactly that without a complaint.
        • Again not even a mention of cutting corporate welfare except for going through the motions on a couple of the most egregious examples.

        Yes I’ll vote Democratic next year. But I’ll do do knowing full well that even if Congress is 100% Democratic it will remain under the control of Wall St and the multinationals that control Congress through their campaign donations.

        We suck less is a valid reason to vote Democratic. But is sure doesn’t inspire people.

          • I won’t disagree with your points on fiscal reform – that is the worst of our problems with our current elected officials.  But more and better Democrats is the only way we’ll ever get to a better place here – electing Republicans will send us backward, and we don’t have a national 3rd party strong enough to take on the current system.
          • There have been a number of attempts by Obama and the Senate to spend more money on transportation, but they’ve been shut down by Republicans who won’t allow them to go through without offsetting cuts elsewhere.
          • Given the option between raising taxes on a hurting middle class during the deepest recession since the Great Depression and keeping them at a reduced rate – one of the only vehicles Republicans would allow him to stimulate the economy – Obama chose what he felt would do the best for the economy, over what would be best for the Federal deficit.  That IMHO was the better of two bad choices.
          • But we are addressing costs in the medical system (e.g. electronic documentation, reducing medical errors, looking at fee-per-incident instead of fee-for-service payments…) – just not the gorilla in the room of negotiated drug prices, which Democrats did include in an earlier version of their reforms before having it stripped out.
          • I have heard Democrats mention that they would be open to a serious overhaul of the current tax code to eliminate most if not all of the breaks.  The one area I’m disappointed in them over is the lack of contract compliance enforcement of companies doing business with the government.
    2. Of course, you realize that means more ConservaDems like Betsy Markey replacing the most vulnerable Republicans, reflecting their moderate-to-conservative districts.

      Just sayin’ they won’t be members of the Borg Hive mind, so if it came to pass, we’d actually move somewhat left, but not all the way to the single-payer, soak-the-rich left.

      I say that is a good thing.  But if the agenda for the next four years is “Break the Gridlock for Jobs, Jobs, Jobs” through smart investments in schools, modernizing our industrial base and major infrastructure, then I think we could get the Independents back in droves.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

219 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!