Debbie Ortega’s Magical Mystery Poll
Update: Ortega campaign manager Ben Gordon shot us an e-mail with some information from Denver polling firm Kupersmit Research.
That memo goes a little more in-depth on the poll Ortega is passing around, though it’s still a little vague in our mind. Apparently, the Kupersmit telephone poll targeted 500 Denver “likely voters.” Indeed, if Ortega was basing her claims on this telephone poll, it does look as if she’s “ahead 14%” after voters heard “a brief statement on her behalf.” Of course, this claim is only backed up by the line “Though voters are largely undecided in the City Council At-Large election, Ortega is currently ahead by 14%,” which doesn’t seem specific enough for us to label the poll as a be-all end all indicator. We obviously didn’t get to look at the specific metrics of the poll.
We can’t say that the data Ortega’s going off of is entirely representative of the race. It does certainly seem, however, that this specific poll indicates that Ortega’s name recognition is the highest in the race. Whether or not the poll accurately gauges voter intent, the name ID data-point might be a decent indicator.
We should also note that the polling memo we received was too vague to entirely establish the legitimacy of the poll, though it’s comforting to know that Ortega isn’t just making this up on the spot, necessarily.
The original text of the diary is below.