New Senate Poll: Et Tu PPP?

PPP did polling over the weekend in the Senate race.  Even the Daily Kos official pollster now has Buck leading Bennet, 49-48.  http://www.publicpolicypolling…  This is kind of like a Republican being behind in the Rasmussen poll.  The key takeaway, Buck leads Independents 50-46.  Bennet gets 87% of Dems, Buck 86% of Republicans.  

The interesting part is to track the PPP polling in the last three polls.  They interviewed from September 30th through October 2nd and had Bennet up by one, 45-46.  They conducted interviews of October 21-23rd and were the only polling shop that had Buck going up during that time frame, having them tied 47-47.  Now, half way through the election they have Buck up 49-48.

It would seem looking at the cumulative national polls, Buck had about a 3-5% lead about a month ago.  I personally don’t buy the PPP October 2 poll and believe the uptick between the Oct 2 poll and the October 23 poll were a function of PPP and not the voters.  I think Buck’s lead narrowed to about 1 or 2% right before early voting and now it is back up to about a 3-5% lead.

Bennet’s Zero Sum Game Mistake

There are three key voting constituencies that make up the Colorado electorate in the US Senate Race.  About 40% of the vote will be coming from Registered Republicans, who make up 35.2% of active voters; about 35% will be coming from Registered Democrats, who make up 32.8% of active voters; and about 25% will come from those who are registered as Unaffiliated, about 31% of the active voters.  We have a reasonable basis for those numbers as most of the votes have already been cast and recorded.

Bennet’s challenge has been to pick away at constituencies that take away from Buck in numbers that hurt Buck more than the tradeoff hurts Bennet.  

Early on Bennet decided to go after the women’s pro-abortion vote at the expense of the traditional base Dems have enjoyed with Catholics.  Politically that was a good move as the net likely was to pick off more Republican and Independent women than he loses in church going folk.  I would expect at a good many religious services this morning voters will be reminded of that today, but I would also expect Bennet does not care as he does not belong to any church or other religious institution.

This week Bennet made another choice which I think will hurt him.  

Bennet needs to energize his base to maximize Dem votes.  He has a friend that his base loves, but is toxic to everyone else.  In order for Bennet to win, however, he needs more than Dems to come out, he needs Independents, who hate his toxic friend.  In addition the mere mention of his toxic friend increases voter enthusiasm for Republicans which he needs to suppress.  Didn’t Bennet have any other friends who could make a call or appearance?  Couldn’t he have gotten Clinton to make the phone call?

So now days before the election, Obama calling his friend Bennet to gin up the Bennet volunteers is in the news.  It might help Dems a bit with their base but how does it plays with Independents?  Why was Bennet trying to localize the race in the first place?

Obama has a 40% approval rating in Colorado.  55% on the citizens of Colorado disapprove of the job he is doing including 54% of Independents.  In the poll that came out yesterday from Marist finding Buck ahead by 4%, here is how the approval of Obama inquiry plays out:

Of the 40 percent who approve of Obama’s performance, 95 percent back Bennet. Of the 55 percent who disapprove of Obama, 87 percent support Buck.

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/201…

That was not a good trade off, unless Bennet’s goal was to only get 40% of the vote.

Bennet’s Secret Revealed

Michael Bennet has been keeping a secret from the people of Colorado.  No, we are not talking about anything that may have gone on while he was Superintendant of Public Schools.  Can you keep a secret?  Okay, here it is.  Michael Bennet is still really very close to Barack Obama and his agenda back in DC.  

How do we know it?  

Has Michael, the newfound fiscal conservative, admitted to this illicit relationship?  

No, he has been sleeping around behind our backs.

http://www.politico.com/news/s…

We have found a tape of President Obama secretly calling Bennet.  One of Colorado voter’s friends happened to overhear the conversation.  She taped it and her lawyers have provided us with a copy. It will soon come up in the divorce proceedings.  

Here is a copy of it, if you promise not to tell anybody.  We don’t want the people of Colorado to find out yet.  Michael promised to tell them on November 3rd.

Rass: Buck +4, CNN Buck +1

Two new polls came out yesterday.  Ramussen has Buck 48, Bennet 44, Others 3 and Undecided 6.  The CNN/Time poll has Buck 47, Bennet 46.

The takeaway from the CNN poll to me was they had Buck leading independents 49-36, which is pretty much the opposite of what the ColoradoPols poll was yesterday.  It appears that nobody has a clue what the independents are going to do.  My best guess is to call them a wash.  Here is the Time info:


In Colorado, Republican Senate nominee Ken Buck is clinging to a narrow advantage over Senator Michael Bennet, who was appointed to the post in 2009. Buck, who leads overall 47%-46%, has benefited from a 49%-36% cushion among independents and from his ability to tether Bennet to Obama, whose approval rating in Colorado is 42% overall and just 30% among independents. Buck’s margin shrank slightly from last month, when respondents in a TIME/CNN survey gave him a 5-point edge.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/polit…

The interesting part about the Rasmussen poll is that it shows some space opening from the last Rasmussen poll and shows how little all the negative spending in this race has meant.

The first rasmussen post primary numbers on August 11th were: Buck 46, Bennet 41, Others 5, Undecideds 7.

The Rasmussen poll done right after the first debate on September 15th: Buck 49, Bennet 45, Others 3, Undecideds 3.

The Rasmussen poll done right before early voting started on October 16th: Buck 47, Bennet 45, Others 4, Undecideds 4.

The current Rasmussen poll realesed on October 27th: Buck 48, Bennet 44, Others 3, Undecideds 6.

After each side spent over $10 million to make the other look nuts, Buck picked up 2%, Bennet picked up 3% and there are 1% more people undecided about both of them.  Maybe next cycle the parties can figure out a way to save the money?

Who is the Liar – PPP or ColoradoPols?

A poll was released this week by PPP on the Colorado Senate race.  It found the race tied 47-47. The undecided are largely Republican and the Unaffiliated favor Buck 46 to 44.  I believe the weighing model has the Republicans voting by 1% more than Dems.  

Other than being off on the relative voter turnout which was available to them which is Republicans up by 5%, I don’t find much to argue about with the poll.  My sense is it will translate to a 3% Buck win, but time will tell.

I have been reading for the last few weeks on ColoradoPols about how the wheels have come off the Buck campaign.  Exaggerated and made up stuff or objective reporting?  

In order to figure out which it is I went back to the previous PPP poll which came out earlier in the month.  That poll had Bennet over Buck by 46 to 45.  So it appears Buck has picked up two percent and Bennet one during the last three weeks.  The reliable PPP says Buck has the momentum.

But, what about the all important Unaffiliated?  Surely Bennet’s campaign has been picking up steam with them.  Buck must have been way ahead with them at the beginning of the month, right?

According the Huffington Post on October 5th:

PPP’s latest poll, which surveyed 834 likely voters from September 30 to October 2, shows incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet with a the slightest of leads over Buck, 46-45.

Interestingly, PPP found that moderates, who comprise the majority of unaffiliated voters in Colorado, prefer Bennet by a 24-point margin despite having a generally negative opinion of the freshman senator.

37 percent of self-described moderates surveyed hold a positive opinion of Bennet, while 45 percent view him negatively. Meanwhile, just 27 percent of moderates view Buck in a positive light, compared to 57 percent have a negative opinion of the Weld County DA.

PPP’s Tom Jensen suggests that Buck’s trouble with independent moderates is “the price to pay for Republicans nominating a candidate with limited appeal to the center.”

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

So, according to the official Pollster of Daily Kos, Buck has gained with independents by double digits in the past three weeks while the unofficial media outlet of Michael Bennet has been claiming Buck is sinking like a rock.  It would follow that Buck has the momentum if you believe PPP.  

I get it.  Now the Dems think Rasmussen is more reliable.  

Where is the wave? Here’s the wave.

The Secretary of State’s office has made two releases of voting totals which indicate the party affiliation of those whose votes have been cast.  We learned yesterday that 443,611 votes were cast of which 184,982 were cast by Republicans and 159,882 were cast by Democrats.  

But what does that tell us about a wave?  ColoradoPols headline screams “Still no GOP ‘wave'”.  I thought it might be helpful to show them where they need to go to find it.

In the last general election, 2008, the final results for early voting in Colorado showed more Democrats early voting than Republicans.  The final numbers, according to Dem party’s Dan Slater were 659,278 Dems voted early, and 644,806 Republicans voted early.  That works out to 36.4834 % for the Dems to 35.6825 % for the Republicans, or +.8%, or 14,472 votes for the Dems.

The 2010 numbers so far show a very different turn out.  So far the Dem turnout is similar to their 2008 early voting coming in at 36.0410 %, down slightly by .4%.  The Republican turn out is way up (as in wave) coming in at 41.6991 %.  That number is 5.7% higher than the Dems in 2010 and an improvement from 2008 of 6.5%. That translates to a republican advantage of 25K votes so far.How this impacts races is pretty easy to see.  If Independents are pretty much a wash in a race, like the US Senate race seems to indicate, and the parties are tied using a 36% Republican vs. 35% Dem model like the News9/ Denver Post poll from this weekend, when the differential is over 5%, instead of 1%, Buck wins by three points.

The Dems ace in the hole has been to call in what they contend is a superior get out the vote strategy.  The OFA team of college kids has been in town to turn out the vote.  The Republicans don’t have anything like that, the Dems contend, so that if the race is close, they will win.  If that is true you would expect in those counties where the Dems need to pick up the slack and pile up the votes they would be shining.  The statewide average is 18.2%.  Here are those numbers.

Voted by 10-25 Active Registration % of turnout

Denver-D 23,306 137,202 17

Denver-R 8,367 46,553 18

Boulder -D 13,806 69,289 20

Boulder – R 7,354 34,297 21.4

Republicans in Denver and Boulder are voting in higher percentages than Dems in those counties.

How are the Republicans doing in the counties where they need to run up the vote?  Here are those numbers:

    Voted by 10-25 Active Registration % of turnout

El Paso – R 26,015 134,919 19.3

El Paso – D 11,828 64,192 18.4

Douglas – R 15,937 76,526 20.8

Douglas – D 6,742 33,333 20.2

Republicans in El Paso and Douglas counties are voting in higher percentages than Dems in those counties.

Picking up 6.5% in two years and outpolling the Dems by 5.7% is the wave that will carry a lot of Republicans to victory.  That wave will be about 100K votes high.

New Senate Poll: Buck 47% – Bennet 47%

The Denver Post/9News poll, conducted from Tuesday October 19th through Thursday October 21st was released this morning. http://www.greeleytribune.com/…  The Poll, conducted by Survey USA, shows Ken Buck with 47%, Michael Bennet with 47%, others with 5% and 1% undecided.  It is the first poll where Michael Bennet has polled as high as 47% of the vote.

To put the poll in perspective, the initial poll following the August 10th primary, conducted by Rasmussen on August 11th, had Buck leading Bennet 46% to 41%.  The previous Survey USA poll, released five weeks ago, had Buck leading Bennet 49% to 45%.  The results of the most recent polling is as follows:

Poll            survey released Buck Bennet Unsure

Rasmussen 10-14 10-16 47 45 4

Fox 10-16 10-19 46 45 4

Ipsos 10-15 to 10-17 10-19 48 45  

SurveyUSA 10-19 to 10-21 10-24 47 47 1

So what do we know?  

The race is closer than the 5 point race I thought it was and it will come down to turnout.  Buck appears to be ahead by about 1%.

Is that good news for Dems? Sort of.  

It appears that the turnout in Colorado is running very strong for Republicans.  That is contrary to the recent ColoradoPols diary which relied on an article written by Michael Bennet’s brother’s magazine for solace.  The Atlantic, quoted in the diary concerning the release of early voting statistics notes:

Democrats are happy with early vote totals in general, but the news appears grim in Colorado, where Republicans have requested and returned more ballots than Democrats. However, a look behind the numbers shows something slightly different.

There is no Republican surge/tsunami/wave/upwelling/flood/what-have-you.

Democrats are “losing” statewide, but they’re losing at a pace that is similar to the pace they were losing in 2008, when they won the state. Democrats say that their voter rolls have shrunk, generally, because they’ve tended to them well — and because 50,000 voters have moved out of state.

A few points: there are more Republicans on the permanent absentee list, so it doesn’t surprise either Democrats or Republicans that the total number of ballots returned will favor Republicans. However, of regular midterm voters, Democrats are casting ballots at a slightly higher rate than Republicans…

Here are the facts:

% Active reg. 08 % 08 early vote Active reg. 10 % 10 early vote

Democrats 32.9 37.7 32.8 36.5

Republicans 33.2 35.9 35.4 41.2

Unaffil./Others 33.9 26.4 31.8 22.3

The Dem % of early votes is down by 1.2% and the Republican % of early votes is up by 5.3% for a net pick up of 6.5% of early voting over 2008.  That is a wave and it is not similar to 2008.  Denying the wave is just Dem happy talk.

To be more granular, here are the results of the nine largest counties in Colorado by active voter population in early voting:

County Active voters (K) Dem/Republican 10 Margin

Jefferson 295 Republican 1,093

El Paso 287 Republican 6,614

Denver 268 Dem 5,360

Arapahoe 268 Republican 1,557

Adams 166 Dem 1,562

Larimer 164 Republican 533

Boulder 160 Dem 3,271

Douglas 157 Republican 4,286

Weld 113 Republican 1,570

Total 1,878 Republican +5,460

If the Republicans get out the vote in the large population areas of Colorado in significantly larger numbers than the Dems, as the early indications suggest they are doing, I still see Buck winning by two or three percent.

DCCC – No money for Markey

If you want to know what is really going on, don’t pay attention to what people have to say, look at what they do.  

This week the DCCC spent $236K on behalf of John Salazar in CD-3.  They spent $ 147K on behalf or Ed Perlmutter in CD-7.  They spent $0 on behalf of Betsy Markey in CD-4.  In fact, that is the same amount they spent on her behalf to date.

There are three competitive Congressional races in Colorado, all seats held by Democrats.  One district, CD-4, the voter registration by party favors republicans by 12%, 39% to 27%; another CD-3 favors Republicans by 4%, 37% to 33%; the third CD-7 favors Democrats by 8%, 38% to 30%.

Local true believer Democrats have been posturing that CD-4 in this wave election is winnable.  Indeed the ultimate true believer, ColoradoPols has the race as even in the Big Li(n)e.  That is what people are saying, but what are the people that matter doing?  

The DCCC has limited resources, but acting in the interest of keeping as many seats Democrat as possible, is allocating those resources where it thinks it has a chance of forestalling a republican takeover of Congress.  Currently 538 gives them a 25% chance of keeping the losses to under 38 seats.

So how is the DCCC allocating its resources?

The National Journal reports http://hotlineoncall.nationalj… :  

The Democratic Congressional Committee is spending millions of dollars in key districts around the country on late independent expenditures, demonstrating the districts Democrats believe can be saved from a national wave — and the members the party believes are already too far behind their Republican rivals to save.

In total, the DCCC spent $13.1 million on independent expenditure advertisements in 59 districts, according to FEC filings made late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Democrats are largely playing defense, while targeting only three Republican-held seats.

Where the DCCC didn’t spend money is as indicative as where it did. With two weeks to go, Democrats are using their checkbooks as acknowledgement that nearly a dozen members are beyond saving.

The DCCC did not spend money on behalf of Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio), Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.), Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.), Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), the filings show. Republicans believe those seven seats are all but guaranteed to fall their way.

How do the national people in the know look at things?

Here is some prospective.  Most prognosticators expect the Republicans to pick up 50 to 60 seats. Nate Silver over at 538 and the New York Times indicates that CD-4 switches if 16 seats flip.  Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has it at number 8.  Here is what he has to say:

8. Colorado’s 4th district (D): Just how much trouble is Rep. Betsy Markey (D) in? The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to spend on her bid, making the race state Rep. Cory Gardner’s (R) to lose. (Previous ranking: 8)

http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

Public polling in the congressional races is spotty, but the national parties and the candidates all have quality polling available to them.  None of the public polling in CD-4 has had the incumbent in the lead.  Her national party has failed to fund her down the home stretch.  That tells you all I need to know about how this race ends.

Buck wins 51% to 46%

(I don’t agree but it’s thoughtful and detailed. And H-man could be correct (by definition he’s “right”) – promoted by DavidThi808)

I thought I would help some of you through the next couple weeks of campaign clutter here on ColoradoPols and tell you what you will see as the headline in the race two weeks from now in order to save you the stress of false information and resulting false hope.  

This race is not, and has not been for months, close.  The headline about Buck’s lead is history, or some such similar Dem dream, would lead you to believe Buck’s numbers do not show the lead by which he ultimately will prevail.  In order to see clearly what will happen in two weeks you need to consider what groups of people will determine the election and who the crosstabs tell us they will be voting for.  

Two groups of people will determine this election: Independents and senior citizens.  Bennet cannot win the election unless he wins the Independents and senior citizens are the group that votes disproportionately high in midterm elections.

Here is the takeaway for each from yesterday’s http://www.foxnews.com/project… poll:

Independents:  Buck 46%, Bennet 38%, another candidate 9%, unsure 8%

65+: Buck 53%, Bennet 36%, another candidate 6%, unsure 5%

Conventional wisdom and experience suggests that unsure voters generally break against the incumbent and that many people who identify with third-party candidates will ultimately vote for one of the two candidates that have a chance of winning.  Applying those principles to the above demographics will yield something like Independents Buck 51%, Bennet 41%, others 8%; 65+ Buck 56%, Bennet 38%, others 6%.

Party affiliation analysis:

The breakdown of registration of Colorado active voters by party affiliation is approximately Republican 35.4%, Dem 33%, Unaffiliated 31%.  The subjective element is determining what percentage of which party will show up to vote.  If only Democrats voted Bennet would win in a landslide.  All indications are nationally and in Colorado that the Republicans are the party with the juice, largely fuelled by the Tea Party.  My guess as to the likely turnout by party is approximately Republicans 40%, Dems 30%, and Unaffiliated 30%.  

The breakdown by party affiliation in yesterday’s poll reveals the following:

Party Buck Bennet Other Not sure

Republican 82% 9% 5% 4%

Dems 6% 92% 1% 1%

Unaffiliated 46% 38% 9% 8%

For purposes of a Buck/Bennet analysis after voting the numbers applying relevant principles would be:

Party Buck Bennet Other

Republican 85% 10% 5%

Dems 6% 93% 1%

Unaffiliated 51% 41% 8%

If you apply the Buck/Bennet analysis using the active voter registration distribution your results would be similar to the results posted in yesterday’s poll :

Buck: Rep-30.09, Dem-1.98, Unaf-15.81 total =47.88

Bennet: Rep-3.54, Dem-30.69, Unaf-12.71 total=46.94

If you apply the Buck/Bennet analysis using the weighted voter distribution which accounts for anticipated voter enthusiasm your result would be:

Buck: Rep-34, Dem-1.8, unaf-15.3 total=51.1

Bennet: Rep-4, Dem-27.9, unaf-12.3 total =44.2

Age breakdown analysis from yesterday’s poll:

Age Buck Bennet Other Unsure

18-39 38% 50% 4% 9%

40-64 48% 45% 5% 2%

65+ 53% 36% 6% 5%

For purposes of a Buck/Bennet analysis after voting the numbers applying relevant principles would be:

Age Buck Bennet Other

18-39 43% 54% 4%

40-64 49% 46% 5%

65+ 56% 38% 6%

If you applied an equal weighting approach of the three different age groups your result would be:

Buck: 18-39-14.32, 40-64-16.32, 65+-18.65 total = 49.29

Bennet 18-39-17.98, 40-64-15.32, 65+-12.65 total =45.95

In the last midterm election, 2006, AARP reports that the 45+ population amounted to 65% of the vote.  That suggests to me a more likely distribution by age would be 18-39-30%; 40-64-30%, 65+-40%.  

If you applied that likely voter distribution by age to the three different age groups your result would be:

Buck: 18-39-12.9, 40-64-14.7, 65+-22.4 total= 50%

Bennet: 18-39-16.2, 40-64-13.8, 65+-15.2 total =45.2%

The weighted party analysis has Buck winning 51 to 44.  The weighted age analysis has Buck winning 50 to 45.  My analysis has Buck winning by 5, 51 to 46.

DCCC Cuts Back In CD-4

In order to figure out what is really going on out there, don’t spend too much time listening to what people are saying, or reading the PR they put out, or thinking through the numbers of the latest semi-released poll.  And for goodness sake, don’t take 90% of the pabulum served up on ColoradoPols as the truth. Just look at the facts and what people do.

Betsy Markey in CD-4 is considered the 8th most likely seat to switch. http://www.nationaljournal.com…   Most experts believe that something in excess of 40 seats will switch parties in November.  Republican active voter registration exceeds Dem active voter registration in her district by over 12%. There have been three polls semi-released on this race, none of which show Markey in the lead.

Yesterday a poll was released showing Markey, the incumbent, behind 44% to 41%.  The resident genius writing for ColoradoPols came to the following conclusion “We’ve always said this race is a toss-up, but if you had to bet on it today, you’d have a hard time talking yourself into Gardner.” The national prognosticators moved CD-4 into the leans GOP column some time ago.

So who is right?

As if on cue, the people that have the best polling info, the best experts to interpret them and the money to spend, chime in to answer the question.  

The DCCC has started to pull advertising for Betsy Markey.  http://www.nationalreview.com/…  The National Journal notes:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee “shaved its ad buy” for Rep. Betsy Markey but has not completely abandoned the freshman incumbent, according to the Denver Post. The DCCC has done the same in other districts where the Democrat is “running behind their Republican challengers in the polls.”

Joanna Burgos, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, disagreed. “Make no mistake about it, when you’ve got a destructive voting record like Betsy Markey and the national party begins to siphon funds away from your deteriorating race 30 days out, it is because they are hanging you out to dry,” said Burgos in a media release.

While the money taken from Markey seems headed to New York, the Republicans are moving money away from CD-4, confident in a win, and putting $700K more on the table in CD-3.

The word “triage” comes to mind.

Dem PPP Poll Buck 45% Bennet 46%

Two weeks ago, a CNN/Time poll had Buck up by 5 points, 49-44.  When Rasmussen had Buck up by 8 points last week, 51-43, it was a flawed poll.  Next Buck was up by a Marist poll by 8 points 50-42.  Over the weekend 9News and the Denver Post released a poll showing Buck up 5 points, 48-43.  All of these polls can be accessed by this link. http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

ColoradoPolsters, progressives and Dems largely remained in denial.  The favored pollster of the left and Daily Kos, PPP, had not been heard from.

Today two new polls came out.  Rasmussen released a poll showing Buck up by 5 points, 50-45, http://www.rasmussenreports.co… and now the Dem-Daily Kos pollster PPP has released its first poll in months on this race.

Guess what? The Dem poll by PPP has Bennet up by 1 point, 46 to 45.  http://publicpolicypolling.blo…  

So what is the difference?  The independents who all other polling has breaking for Buck, PPP has going for Bennet 48%-38%.  The 9News Denver Post poll released on Sunday has Buck winning the Independents 53% to 34%. For those who think the Independents are breaking for Bennet by 10%, they should find this poll reassuring.  

The Bloodbath approaches

Three polls have been released this week on the Senate Race.  Rasmussen reported on Wednesday Buck has a 51%-43% lead.  http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

The ColoradoPols reality deniers blamed Rasmussen, the messenger.  Surely it was not raining outside.

On Friday, a Marist poll reported Buck has a 50%-42% lead. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/201…

The ColoradoPolster’s spin?  There is some pent up enthusiasm for Michael Bennet that is not being picked up in the polls.  http://www.coloradopols.com/di…

This morning there is a SurveyUSA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9 News.  http://www.denverpost.com/elec… It shows Buck leading 48% to 43%.  

It also shows the Republican leading for Treasurer 38% to 27%.

It also shows the Republican leading for AG 43% to 25%.

It also shows the Republican leading for Secretary of State 28% to 25%.

Only, Hick is ahead among the statewide Dem candidates.

Let me proffer the obvious explanation, before the Polster editors weigh in.  The Dems are getting their ass kicked all over the place and it will only get worse.

On the Senate side, the Greeley Tribune has an interesting article.  http://www.greeleytribune.com/… and here are some numbers to consider.  

Buck leads independents 53% to 34%.  

Only 1% remain undecided.

Local political polling expert Floyd Ciruli is interviewed in the Greeley Tribune:

Bennet’s campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have used numerous ads to pain Buck as outside the political mainstream.

“I don’t think they have worked,” Ciruli said. “Bennet should be ahead, or they should be dead even if those ads were going to work.”

Ciruli said part of the reason Buck has withstood the attacks comes from the fact that this is a good year for Republican candidates in general, but it also has to do with Buck’s strengths as a campaigner.

“He’s just a good candidate,” Ciruli sad. “He’s a conservative, but yet he doesn’t come off as extreme from a personal point of view. He comes off as personable as a kind of easy-going western independent. I think that’s holding him in good stead.”

Another number to ponder.  The Dems seem to be encouraged by the lead they hold as to women voters which Bennet leads 49% to 44%.  Perhaps they might take some of their Buck abortion issue money and direct it to issues men care about.  Buck leads with men 52% to 37%, a 15% gap.

Dems to base: Stop Whining!

I never really understood abusive relationships.  

Why would a seemingly intelligent human being go back into an environment where the one who professes to love them instead treats them very badly?  What always amazed me was how the abuser would blame the abused for their treatment.  But, people don’t act that way anymore, do they?

The establishment of both political parties in Colorado has abused their base.  They have made decisions at odds with the views of their base and there has been a revolution of sorts brewing in both parties.  On the Republican side, it is seen in the face of the Tea Party, which has thrown off the yoke of establishment candidates with mixed results.  

On the Dem side, with the additional burden of overcoming incumbency, its results are less tangible, but no less real.  It manifests in a sense of continued disillusion.  Pat Stryker got hers, (solar company loans) but I sure didn’t get mine.  Andrew Romanoff built the house, but Michael Bennet was given the keys.

Enter Joe Biden, an uninspiring politician with a unique gift of incessantly wandering off message and speaking inconvenient truths. In response to the wide enthusiasm gap in the upcoming mid-term elections currently being enjoyed by the Republicans, he is quoted by Politico as stating:

Biden, speaking at a frozen yogurt plant in New Hampshire, said he wanted to “remind our base constituency to stop whining and get out there and look at the alternatives. This President has done an incredible job. He’s kept his promises.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

The Dem ruling class of Stryker and Bennet would agree with Biden.  They got theirs.  The Dem base, once promised hope and change, seems to have contracted something else.

Markos Moulitsas, of Daily Kos fame, summed it up well:

It’s idiotic is what it is,” says Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas, one of Obama’s most pointed critics on the left. “If Democrats, with the White House and Congressional super-majorities, had delivered on what they had promised, and if people had jobs, no one would be whining. They have reaped what they sowed. They haven’t delivered on what they’ve promised – and instead of making the case as to why they would do if they are reelected, they are insulting people.

“It’s a far cry from Bill Clinton’s ‘I feel your pain,'” he added.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

So is the Dem base in Colorado going to rally to Vice-President Biden’s call?  Do the women and minority groups that make up a disproportionate part of the Dem base feel inspired?  Do they feel that the Dems have delivered on what they promised?  Or, will they sit out the mid-terms and not walk the precincts and man the phone banks?

Like I said, I don’t really understand abusive relationships.

Federal Races: Week in Review, week ending Sept 26

United States Senate

This week there was a new poll performed for CNN/Time http://www.realclearpolitics.c…  The poll shows Buck leading Bennet 49 to 44, up slightly from last week’s Rasmussen poll which had Buck leading 49 to 45.  Of the five most recent likely voter model polls, Buck has polled 49% in three of them and Bennet has topped out at 45%.

Nate Silver at the New York Times has increased Buck’s chances from 72% to 76%. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n… Silver has this seat the sixth seat which would change hands and he has upped his projected Senate makeup from 53-47 to 52-48. There were no changes from Sabato or Cook on this race and there were no debates this week.

On the campaign trail, Bennet continues to try to hit Buck on the social issues and Buck continues to hit Bennet on his voting record.  Local pollster, Floyd Ciruli, was asked about his reaction to the effectiveness of Bennet’s attack ads:

Last week, the Bennet campaign launched an ad hitting Buck over his anti-abortion stance, marking a rare instance of politicking on social issues in this electoral cycle.

. . .

Ciruli, the Colorado pollster, said that the decision to air the abortion ad suggested that the Bennet campaign sensed that it was losing ground against Buck, as recent polls have indicated.

“The Democrats are thinking that this is a two-point race at most for them — that is to say they’re going to lose it by five or win it by one or two, and that one or two could be unaffiliated women on abortion,” Ciruli said. “Buck’s ability to withstand this just amazes me — I thought for sure he’d be one or two points down.”    http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

Local pollster, Eric Sondermann, suggest why the Dem “Buck is an extremist” label may not be sticking:

“Buck is one of these guys that is sort of on the cusp,” Sondermann said. “The Democrats want to make him into the next Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle or Rand Paul, but the shoe doesn’t entirely fit. Yes, he won the primary with the same base of support, but he probably has more IQ points than some of those people; he’s a Princeton grad, and he’s played the establishment game to some extent before.”

Sondermann said that Buck is trying to portray himself as a conservative within the bounds of the Colorado mainstream — in the vein of former Republican Senator Wayne Allard — and has not been prone to the kinds of easy-to-ridicule statements that O’Donnell, Angle and Paul have had to walk back.

CD-4

Cory Gardner is now favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 79%, up from 72% last week.  The seat is listed as the 171st most Republican in the country and if 17-19 seats change hands it is one of the likely seats to switch.  The Times has the Republican majority makeup of seats in the new House changing from 223-212 to 224-211.

There was no new polling last week.   Cory Gardner received the endorsement of Sarah Palin. There was a fundraiser of note in Aspen for Cory Gardner as well as the Republican candidates in CD-3 and CD-7 featuring Karl Rove.

CD-3

Scott Tipton is now favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 59% up from 56% the week before.  The seat is listed as the 184th most Republican in the country and if 38 seats change hands, it is likely to be among the seats to switch.

There was no new polling last week.  Scott Tipton received the endorsement of Sarah Palin and was also part of the fundraiser featuring Karl Rove.

CD-7

Ed Perlmutter is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 75% up from 74% last week.  The seat is listed as the 156th most Democratic in the country.  In order for it to switch it is estimated that the Republicans would need to pick up 67-69 seats, down from 70.  There are currently about 100 seats in play.

There was no new polling this week.  Ryan Frazier was part of the Aspen fundraiser.   He also received favorable press in an article in the Washington Post on independent voters which featured Commerce City, part of his district. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

The conservative blog, People’s Press Collective is suggesting that Perlmutter’s involvement with an investment in, and legislation concerning, green banks may become an issue in the campaign. http://www.peoplespresscollect…

My read is that CD-7 will see some movement with Frazier up with an ad and significant funding on the way and likely replace the Tipton/Salazar race as the closest race.

Federal Races: Week in Review, week ending Sept 26

United States Senate

This week there was a new poll performed for CNN/Time http://www.realclearpolitics.c…  The poll shows Buck leading Bennet 49 to 44, up slightly from last week’s Rasmussen poll which had Buck leading 49 to 44.  Of the four most recent likely voter model polls, Buck has polled 49% and Bennet has topped out at 45%.

Nate Silver at the New York Times has increased Buck’s chances from 72% to 76%. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n… Silver has this seat the sixth seat which would change hands and he has upped his projected Senate makeup from 53-47 to 52-48. There were no changes from Sabato or Cook on this race and there were no debates this week.

On the campaign trail, Bennet continues to try to hit Buck on the social issues and Buck continues to hit Bennet on his voting record.  Local pollster, Floyd Ciruli, was asked about his reaction to the effectiveness of Bennet’s attack ads:

Last week, the Bennet campaign launched an ad hitting Buck over his anti-abortion stance, marking a rare instance of politicking on social issues in this electoral cycle.

. . .

Ciruli, the Colorado pollster, said that the decision to air the abortion ad suggested that the Bennet campaign sensed that it was losing ground against Buck, as recent polls have indicated.

“The Democrats are thinking that this is a two-point race at most for them — that is to say they’re going to lose it by five or win it by one or two, and that one or two could be unaffiliated women on abortion,” Ciruli said. “Buck’s ability to withstand this just amazes me — I thought for sure he’d be one or two points down.”    http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

Local pollster, Eric Sondermann, suggest why the Dem “Buck is an extremist” label may not be sticking:

“Buck is one of these guys that is sort of on the cusp,” Sondermann said. “The Democrats want to make him into the next Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle or Rand Paul, but the shoe doesn’t entirely fit. Yes, he won the primary with the same base of support, but he probably has more IQ points than some of those people; he’s a Princeton grad, and he’s played the establishment game to some extent before.”

Sondermann said that Buck is trying to portray himself as a conservative within the bounds of the Colorado mainstream — in the vein of former Republican Senator Wayne Allard — and has not been prone to the kinds of easy-to-ridicule statements that O’Donnell, Angle and Paul have had to walk back.

CD-4

Cory Gardner is now favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 79%, up from 72% last week.  The seat is listed as the 171st most Republican in the country and if 17-19 seats change hands it is one of the likely seats to switch.  The Times has the Republican majority makeup of seats in the new House changing from 223-212 to 224-211.

There was no new polling last week.   Cory Gardner received the endorsement of Sarah Palin. There was a fundraiser of note in Aspen for Cory Gardner as well as the Republican candidates in CD-3 and CD-7 featuring Karl Rove.

CD-3

Scott Tipton is now favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 59% up from 56% the week before.  The seat is listed as the 184th most Republican in the country and if 38 seats change hands, it is likely to be among the seats to switch.

There was no new polling last week.  Scott Tipton received the endorsement of Sarah Palin and was also part of the fundraiser featuring Karl Rove.

CD-7

Ed Perlmutter is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 75% up from 74% last week.  The seat is listed as the 156th most Democratic in the country.  In order for it to switch it is estimated that the Republicans would need to pick up 67-69 seats, down from 70.  There are currently about 100 seats in play.

There was no new polling this week.  Ryan Frazier was part of the Aspen fundraiser.   He also received favorable press in an article in the Washington Post on independent voters which featured Commerce City, part of his district. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

The conservative blog, People’s Press Collective is suggesting that Perlmutter’s involvement with an investment in, and legislation concerning, green banks may become an issue in the campaign. http://www.peoplespresscollect…

My read is that CD-7 will see some movement with Frazier up with an ad and significant funding on the way and likely replace the Tipton/Salazar race as the closest race.

The 65+ Demographic and social security: How is that DSCC attack ad working?

The largest benefactor of appointed Senator Bennet’s campaign is the DSCC which has spent over $1.5 million dollars to date attacking his opponent, Ken Buck.  One of the lines of attack has been to target senior citizens, a very important demographic in an off year election cycle, by targeting Buck’s stance on social security.  The ad is part of their Buck is extreme campaign. 9news has done an analysis of the ad which can be found here. http://www.9news.com/rss/artic… It puts the ads claims in some context.

Buck has come out with his own ad targeting the demographic:

So far, the Bennet campaign and their benefactors at the DSCC have not given voters a reason to vote “for” Michael Bennet.  They have instead tried to scare seniors to vote “against” Ken Buck.  So with all the targeting of the 65+ demographic, what is the voter’s scorecard?  

Buck has an overwhelming lead in this group, 53 to 38 over Bennet, according to the recently released CNN/Time poll.

Who and where Bennet lost

Colorado is a state with one large metropolitan area, Denver, and one other liberal enclave, the people’s republic of Boulder, which are natural bases of support for Democrats.  Rural Colorado is a natural base for Colorado Republicans.  Which party wins in a statewide election in large part depends on where the line is drawn between those competing demographics.  In other words, the battle is over the suburbs.

The other axis upon which the race can be looked at is through the lens of party affiliation.  There are three large blocks of voters.  Republicans have about 35% of the voter registration, Dems about 33%, and each will likely vote for their respective nominated candidates.  The 30% Independent vote remains the key using that analysis

The poll that was released yesterday by CNN/Time http://politicalticker.blogs.c… provides numbers which fill in the blanks about how the Senate race is shaping up. On the geography gap CNN notes:

“Bennet’s problem is that his support disappears the further you get from Denver,” Holland says. “Bennet has a huge lead in Denver and Boulder, but the race is close in the Denver suburbs. Move further along the Front Range – the strip of fast-growing communities that strech out along the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains – and Buck’s lead widens to 18 points. Buck also has a 20-point lead in the rest of the state.”

The takeaways from the poll as noted by the National Review are as follows:

Bennet takes 94 percent of his party’s support, while Buck holds 91 percent of Republicans. Independents are falling behind Buck, 50 to 36. This key demographic is sought by both parties, and currently makes up the largest voting bloc of registered voters in the state of Colorado.

Bennet has a commanding lead in the Denver/Boulder segment, 65 to 28, but Buck’s lead in the sought-after suburbs, 50 to 44, could prove insurmountable, as Buck holds generous leads along the Front Range corridor (54 to 36) and the rest of the state (55 to 35).

Bennet leads big in Denver/Boulder, Buck leads big in rural Colorado. The key, Buck leads in suburbs.  

Bennet has 94% of Dems. Buck has 91% of Republicans.  The key, Buck leads Independents 50%-36%.

The Washington Post yesterday had an interesting article which puts a face on the problem.  The article is titled “Loyalties shift in vote-rich suburbs” and profiles Commerce City, Colorado. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

“I’m anxious,” said Jennifer Wallace, 35.

A lifelong independent, Wallace said she voted for Obama because she thought he could fix the economy. But recently, she said, her husband was laid off when a Chinese firm swallowed up the die-casting company where he worked.

“The unemployment was supposed to go down, and it’s not,” Wallace said. “You hear the housing market is coming back, but it’s not. Not here. We were the fastest-growing, the up-and-coming, and then it just stopped. We don’t even have our grocery store,yet.”

Blame drives the vote

Wallace said she knows she can’t blame it all on Obama. But she blames him enough that she says she will vote in November for Ryan Frazier, Perlumutter’s Republican opponent, and Ken Buck, the Republican hoping to unseat Sen. Michael Bennet, a Democrat.

The implications of the loss of the suburbs are particularly significant in CD-7:

Earlier this year few predicted Perlmutter would face competition from a Republican challenger, considering his comfortable margin of victory in 2008. But Frazier, a City Council member from the nearby suburb of Aurora, is a charismatic campaigner. Strategists in both parties say it could emerge as a sleeper race.

“People are starting to have a bit of buyer’s remorse,” Frazier said in an interview. He said Perlmutter, who supported most of the Democratic agenda, is out of step with the public.

Perlmutter acknowledges that his constituents may prove unfaithful. He hears it all the time as he walks suburban neighborhoods knocking on doors.

“It’s a testy year, and I need all the help I can get,” the congressman, in a T-shirt and jeans, told one voter as he made his rounds in Lakewood, an older suburb close to Denver.

The man told Perlmutter he probably could count on his vote.

“Could you put up a yard sign?”

That he would have to think about.

On the evening of November 2nd as the precincts report the Senate results and Buck is ahead 53% to 47% many reasons will be offered as to why Bennet lost.  If you want to know who he lost and where they are located I can help you with that now.  He lost the Independents in the suburbs.

Bennet on Cap & Trade: Flip Flop or Geographically determined responses? DC or Grand Junction?

National Review is up with a good story this afternoon. http://www.nationalreview.com/… Michael Bennet has indicated his support for cap and trade legislation numerous times back in DC. The bill, which is referred to as Cap and Trade was passed by the House, HR 2454, would reduce carbon emissions by requiring polluters to trade pollution allowances and which would require providers of electricity to produce 20% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020.

Bennet joined with his fellow Dem freshmen Senators in July calling on Harry Reid to get the ball rolling:


Freshmen Senate Democrats are pushing legislation that prices industrial greenhouse gas emissions as part of a broader package of energy and climate initiatives.

All 12 in the current freshmen Democratic class – in a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) Friday – say a price on carbon emissions is needed in order to provide market certainty and keep pace with major developing countries like China and India.

Their call for a “polluter pays” approach to climate change echoes that of Democratic leaders looking to strike a deal on a first-time carbon-pricing program focusing on electric utilities.

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wi…

In July 2010 the failure for the Senate to pass such legislation caused the DC native to note as follows:

Michael Bennet, U.S. Senator for Colorado, released the following statement regarding Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s decision to bring a scaled-back energy bill to the Senate floor next week:

“I can’t help but be underwhelmed by Washington today,” said Bennet.  “The country needs us to move forward on addressing climate change and creating a clean energy economy.  Yet partisanship and gridlock have struck again.  We need a comprehensive energy bill that puts a price on carbon pollution and incentivizes the investments in clean energy that will help create jobs and lessen our dependence on overseas oil.  A good bill will also follow Colorado’s lead in establishing an aggressive renewable electricity standard.

“We simply can’t afford to let the opportunity to create new clean energy jobs and break our reliance on foreign fossil fuels slip away.  And while Washington can’t seem to get its act together, I’m going to keep up the fight to pass a comprehensive energy and climate bill that moves Colorado and the country forward.” [emphasis added]

So now Senator Bennet is back in Colorado, where Cap and Trade in unpopular, and he is in Grand Juction, where it is particularly unpopular, for a debate, guess what? Bennet does not support cap and trade and its an unproductive conversation to have, at least when he is in Grand Junction.

Here’s the video of Bennet clearing things up. The relevant statement is at 32:40.



Independents to Dems: Why have you forsaken us?

No Dem in Colorado, including Polis, can get elected to federal office without the help of Independents.  The extent of required help varies.  The necessity does not.  So is this key voting group lining up nicely behind the incumbent Democrats seeking election.  Are they appropriately appreciative of the legislative accomplishments of Obamacare and the multiple acts of self-stimulation?  It would appear not.

The National Review http://www.nationalreview.com/… and Wall Street Journal http://online.wsj.com/article/…  both have articles  this morning about the largest polling done on independents. The results suggest a remarkable shift towards the Republicans in a manner that is clearly not understood by local Polsters.

The National Review perceives the shift not to be one of policy but of values.  They note:

• Among independents, 89 percent believe government . . . needs to go on a diet.

• Independents believe that what would help most with a national recovery is cutting spending (65 percent) and cutting taxes (44 percent).

• 49 percent believe the Democratic leadership has not only addressed the economic crisis the wrong way, but have made it worse.

Another important take away, particularly as the Dems in Colorado try to make social issues the gotcha issues, what do independents think the gotcha issues are?  The poll asked voters to assume you agree with a candidate on every issue save one, would you still vote for him to get to the issues that might tip the scale.  I know the Polsters are all thinking abortion based on the analysis done by the Bennet campaign.  Here are the top three:

1. Healthcare 48% (83% oppose Obamacare)

2. Ground Zero mosque

3. Size of government and spending

So what does all this mean as election day approaches?  Here are the numbers from the Wall Street Journal:

Today, independents say they lean more toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party, 50% to 25%, and that the Republican Party is closer to their views by 52% to 30%. This movement comes in spite of independents’ generally negative views of the GOP-a majority of independents (54%) view the Republicans unfavorably, compared to 39% who have a favorable impression. (The poll also revealed that 48% of independents were either “sympathetic to or supporters of the tea party.”)

Yet Republicans still have a 14-point lead overall among independents who say they intend to vote in the upcoming congressional elections (37% to 23%). Forty percent remain undecided. Independents who say they are certain to vote in the upcoming election break better than two-to-one for the Republicans, 42% to 20%.

If you look at the relative enthusiasm of the Republicans and understand what is important to Independents this cycle, the following becomes pretty obvious.  The 2-0 in the Senate and 5-2 in the House Dem majorities from Colorado is over. It will shortly be 1-1 and either 3-4 or 2-5 the other way.

CD-1 in play? – Fallon put on radar for “Young Gun” candidate.

(The NRCC is making a joke out of its “Young Guns” designation. This is flat out silly. Dan Maes will be President of the United States before Fallon beats DeGette. – promoted by Colorado Pols)

There are more active registered Republicans in Colorado than Democrats, yet 5 of the 7 house members are Democrats.  This is shaping up to be a rather volatile political year.  Think it can’t swing to 6 of the 7 being Republican? The National Republican Congressional Committee thinks it can. Yesterday, they put Dr. Fallon on the radar for a “Young Gun” candidate. The district and candidate they have selected should cause Colorado Dems concern.

The safest Dem seat by voter registration is CD-1.  The Dems have over 50% of the registered voters.  The Republicans have about 20%. The Dems have a 14 year incumbent, Diana DeGette, who received 72% of the vote in 2008.  The Republicans have selected a political newcomer, Dr. Mike Fallon, to run against her.  Curious place to pick a fight if you are a Republican, right?  

Maybe not.

For all her tenure in office, DeGette shows cash on hand in July of only $110K to Fallon’s $15K. There does not appear to be any public polling available and the national pollsters have the seat as solid Dem with Nate Silver giving DeGette a 100% chance of getting reelected, but what do we really know about the race?  We know the Republicans think Fallon has a chance.

In announcing Fallon’s status the NRCC head noted:

“With Americans desperate for change, these 23 candidates are determined to reign in reckless spending, cut taxes and return the economy back to a state of vitality”

http://www.nationalreview.com/…

Fallon is up with two ads:

His web site is located at:  http://www.fallon4congress.com/  We should know in a couple weeks whether the NRCC is on to something. In this election cycle, who knows?

Federal Races: Week in Review

( – promoted by ClubTwitty)

United States Senate

There was one poll out last week by Rasmussen  http://www.rasmussenreports.co… showing the race as Buck 49%; Bennet 45%; others 3%, undecided 3%.

Nate Silver at the New York Times gives Buck a 72% chance of taking the seat and he projects that the make-up of the new Senate will be 53 Dems and 47 Republicans.

Larry Sabato at the Center for Politics of the University of Virginia has the seat as leaning Republican.  He thinks the Republicans will have either 48 or 49 Senators next year.  He was out in Colorado recently and made this observation:

Colorado Senate: After a visit last week, it’s more obvious than ever that the Republicans have completely blown their good opportunity to win the state governorship. Their tarnished nominee, Dan Maes, has been abandoned by just about everyone in the party after revelations about his past, and former Congressman Tom Tancredo (R) is splitting what remains of the GOP vote by running as an independent. As we have said for some time, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) is the unofficial Governor-elect. But what we picked up was interesting. Like many competitive Purple states, Colorado wants to send the Democrats a message. Since they cannot do it for Governor, they appear more likely to pay the postage in the Senate race, by supporting Republican nominee Ken Buck, a Tea Party candidate, against appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Several sharp political observers in the Centennial State pointed this out to us. An odd psychology may be at work. It’s still a very close race, though.

http://www.centerforpolitics.o…

Charlie Cook has the seat rated as a toss-up and The fix at the Washington Post has the seat as the seventh most likely seat to switch parties.

On the endorsement front, Ken Buck received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.  He also received ad new buys on his behalf from the National Republican Senatorial Committee.  Bennet has been receiving ad buys on his behalf from the National Democratic Senatorial Committee.  Buck also received new ad buys on his behalf from the Club for Growth.

On the trail last week, the second debate took place in Colorado Springs.  Buck had the better of the audience, the debate was informative and seen by me as a draw.

CD-4

Cory Gardner is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 72%.  The seat is listed as the 171st most Republican in the country and if 20 seats change hands it is in the 20 most likely seats to switch.  The Times has the Republicans picking up 45 seats in the House.

Betsy Markey received the endorsement of the NRA last week.

CD-3

Scott Tipton is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 56%.  The seat is listed as the 184th most Republican in the country and if 42 seats change hands, Nate projects 45 will, it is likely to be among the seats to switch.

John Salazar received the endorsement of the NRA last week.  Scott Tipton was named a “Top Gun” by the National Republican Congressional Committee which will likely translate to them spending about $400,000 to $500,000 on his behalf.

CD-7

Ed Perlmutter is favored by Nate Silver at the New York Times to take the seat by 74%.  The seat is listed as the 156th most Democratic in the country.  In order for it to switch it is estimated that the Republicans would need to pick up 72 seats.  There are currently about 100 seats in play.

Ryan Frazier received the endorsement of the NRA last week.  He was also named a “Top Gun” by the National Republican Congressional Committee which will likely translate to them spending about $400,000 to $500,000 on his behalf.

My read is that CD-7 will see some movement with Frazier up with an ad and significant funding on the way and likely replace the Tipton/Salazar race as the closest race of the four which are perceived as being in play as things move down the stretch.

The NRA endorses Ken Buck in the US Senate Race

The National Rifle Association today endorsed Ken Buck in the Colorado US Senate Race.  http://www.nrapvf.org/news/Rea…

The Chair of the NRA’s Political Victory fund noted:

“Ken Buck is a strong supporter of our Second Amendment freedoms and hunting heritage and will protect our rights in the U.S. Senate,” said Chris W. Cox, chairman of the NRA-PVF. “He is the clear choice for Colorado gun owners in this race.”

Among buck’s accomplishments that the NRA found important:

Ken Buck signed a pro-gun amicus brief to the U.S. Supreme Court in support of our individual right to keep and bear arms in the historic Heller case.  He supports national right-to-carry reciprocity, and efforts to reform the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.  He also opposes reenacting the Clinton gun and magazine ban and believes sportsmen should have access to federally owned or administered lands for hunting, fishing, trapping and recreational shooting.

The NRA has asked all gun owners and its members to vote for Buck:

“Ken Buck’s record of standing up for our Second Amendment rights as Assistant U.S. Attorney and District Attorney of Weld County has earned him an “A” rating and endorsement from the NRA-PVF,” Cox continued. “We ask all Colorado gun owners, hunters and NRA members to vote Ken Buck for U.S. Senate on November 2nd.”

This development of abandoning a sitting Senator and endorsing a challenger is rare for the NRA.

The left wing website, ColoradoPols, considers this to be a significant development.  The site which routinely endorses any object which has a D connected with its name, has noted this “is a major blow to the campaign of” (Democrat incumbent Michael Bennet), “who has been trying to cast (Buck) as an (extremist)”.  

ColoradoPols stated:

“the NRA endorsement is important because it hurts (Bennet’s) “(Buck) is an extrem(ist)” narrative and makes (Buck) look more moderate. Getting an endorsement that would be expected to go to (an incumbent) is huge. Getting endorsements that you are expected to get…not so much.”

Colorado: Red meat for Republicans

Think Colorado incumbent Democrats in DC are safe?  The Republican establishment sure doesn’t think so.  

In the last week there has been signifacant support thrown into the Colorado Senate race and in two more congressional district races.

On the Senate front, the NRSC has sure made the Dems hope for a rift between them and Buck look silly.  Guess what state saw their first TV buy?  That’s right Colorado.  Guess what state is seeing the first Club for Growth TV ad?  Right again, Colorado.  Think Bennet being down 4 points with only 3% undecideds in the latest polling is about to change? http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Here is the new Club for Growth ad:

On the Congressional front Scott Tipton in CD-3  http://www.redstate.com/hollyo… and Ryan Frazier in CD-7 http://www.frazierforcolorado…. , each of whom have polling showing them leading the Dem incumbent, join Cory Gardner in being named “Young Guns” by the NRCC.  This will likely result in them receiving an infusion of approximately $400-500K to help level the playing field.  The National Republican party sees Colorado as a significant pick-up opportunity.

The Senate race  http://www.centerforpolitics.o… and CD -4  http://elections.nytimes.com/2… have already been moved into the lean republican category by national forecasters.  ColoradoPravda on the left?  The Dems continue to lead.

What is up for the weekend?  There is another debate in Colorado Springs between Ken Buck and Michael Bennet.  The 40 second highlight of the last debate is below:

Blue/Purple turns to Red/ Purple: what the voter registration numbers tell us about November

All the prognosticators seem to agree that the US Senate race and the US House races in Districts 03, 04 and 07 are competitive and that the House races in Districts 01, 02, 05 and 06 are not.  Is there something magical about the candidates in those districts that are not competitive that if only acquired by those in competitive races they could learn and succeed? Is it Charisma? Voter services with a smile?  I think not.  I think it is really a function of the political make up of their districts.

The statewide active voter registration breakdown in Colorado in January 2009 is as follows: Republicans 35.1%, Democrats 34.5% and unaffiliated 29.8%. Colorado had two Democrat Senators and five Democrat House members.  The Republicans have two members of the House.

House District 01 is occupied by DeGette, a Democrat.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Democrats in District 1 have 52% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Republicans have 18.4%.

House District 02 is occupied by Polis, a Democrat.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Democrats in District 02 have 39.4% of the active voter registration numbers.   The Republicans have 26%.

House District 05 is occupied by Lamborn, a Republican.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 05 have 47.3% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 24.1%.

House District 06 is occupied by Coffman, a Republican.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 06 have 43.9% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 27.4%

Does anyone else detect a trend here?  It follows in analyzing the competitive house races and the senate race that it might make some sense to look at the relevant voter registration numbers in the districts.

House District 04 is generally seen as the house seat most likely to change hands.  Betsy Markey is a first term Democrat.  She is opposed by Cory Gardner.  Nate Silver at 538 gives Gardner a 76% chance of taking the seat.  There have been two polls done, one showing Gardner up 50 to 39, he other done for Markey showing a tie.  Local pollster Floyd Ciruli was recently quoted about the race in Politico as follows:

“If they win 30 to 35 seats, she’s one of them. As good as she is, she is clearly an Obama Democrat,” said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Denver-based pollster.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

The active voter registration numbers show the enormity of the task at hand.  Using Jan 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 04 have 39.3% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 28.9%.  Since Jan 2009 the disparity has increased from 10.4% to 12.2%.  

House District 03 is seen as the next most likely house district to change hands.  John Salazar is the Democrat incumbent.  He is opposed by Scott Tipton.   Silver at 538 gives Tipton a 61% chance of taking the seat.  I believe one poll has been released showing Tipton up slightly.  Using the January 2009 numbers, Republicans in District 03 have 36.9% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 34.5%.  Since Jan 2009 the disparity has increased from 2.4% to 4.4%.

House District 07 is the other competitive house race but one that is not seen as likely to change hands. Incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter is given a 68% chance of retaining his seat.  The January 2009 numbers have the Democrats in District 07 with 39.5% of the active voter registration.  The Republicans have 29.9%.

In the US Senate race, Nate Silver gives Ken Buck a 74% chance of taking the seat occupied by appointed Senator Michael Bennet.  Numerous polls have been taken and Buck is generally believed to have a lead in the 2-4% range. Using January 2009 numbers the Republicans on a statewide basis have 35.1% of the active voter registration numbers.  The Democrats have 34.5%.  Since January 2009 the disparity has increased from .6% to 2.4%.

If you use the professional pickers, Nate Silver, and follow the active voter registration numbers you would conclude the likely make up of the Colorado House Delegation will be 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats, and a split of 1 Republican and 1 Democrat in the Senate.