From Rasmussen Reports:
Is independent Tom Tancredo now becoming the de facto Republican candidate for governor of Colorado? He’s now moved to within four points of Democrat John Hickenlooper to turn the race into a toss-up.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Colorado finds Hickenlooper with 42% support, while Tancredo, the candidate of the American Constitution Party, earns 38% of the vote. Support for Republican Dan Maes continues to fall and now stands at 12%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Less than two weeks ago, Tancredo earned 35% of the vote to Hickenlooper’s 43% and Maes’ 16%. That shifted the race from Solid Democrat to Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard. Now the race moves to a Toss-Up.
First off, we don’t believe for a second (and neither do most informed politicos in Colorado) that the governor’s race here is anything close to a toss-up. Democrat John Hickenlooper is going to be elected governor — he’s been too far ahead for too long, and he has significantly more resources than Tom Tancredo.
But news of this poll from the notoriously right-leaning Rasmussen Reports is not actually helpful for Colorado Republicans. Tancredo is going to (rightly) tout these polling numbers as proof that he can defeat Hickenlooper, which will do two things: 1) Convince more potential Republican voters to choose Tancredo over GOP nominee Dan Maes, and 2) Give a big boost to American Constitution Party candidate Doug Aden in CD-4.
According to Rasmussen, Maes is sitting at 12% of the vote, just two points away from falling under the 10% required to cause Republicans to lose their “major party” status. More significantly, any rise for American Constitution Party candidate Tancredo makes Aden look more credible as well, and just about every vote that Aden receives is a vote that would have otherwise gone to Republican Cory Gardner in CD-4.
I’ve said all along that a powerful Constitution Party turnout at the gov level is likely carry on to other cp candidates like Aden. And that ain’t good news for Cory Gardner.
How does a poll showing a dramatically closed gap between Hick and Tank spell bad news for Republicans? They’re (almost) all voting for Tank. Sure, a few Repub operatives might think it’s bad news, but you’re missing the forest for the trees. I’m a Hick guy, but it’s troubling that he can’t get above 50 percent. This is setting up like Clinton’s first term in the White House — no majority (51 percent) means no mandate to govern.
One more vote than the other sobs got is all the mandate their is in politics, iggy.
LBJ had a huge “mandate” and was a dismal failure with the war. Nixon was re-elected with a huge mandate…and well, you know what happened.
When a governor looks out at a joint session of the lege, he sees 100 men and women each with their own separate mandates…one more vote than the other sonsabitches got.
The notion that a huge plurality means dip squat just isn’t true.
almost all rs are definitely not voting for tank, either. the 12 pct of overall vote maes has is more than a third of the voters who are registered Rs. I can’t believe any unafilliateds are voting for maes. Adjust razzy for reality and the final turnout is probably
Hick 55
Tank 33
Maes 12.
I still think the GOP will make the cut.
Because LBJ had an overwhelming mandate, he had the political power to attempt overwhelming change — civil rights, Vietnam, Great Society, etc. Without that mandate, he never could have attempted big changes. (Nixon is a different issue and wasn’t in office long enough his second term to spend his mandate.)
If Hick takes office without the support of the majority of the state — in fact, a (mostly Republican) majority against him — he will have a shortage of political capital to spend on change.
Not that Hick is running as a change agent anyway, but just in case he decided to grow a pair and stand for something…
It’s having the votes in Congress.
If you have enough congressmen and senators by the balls, you have a “mandate.”
LBJ’as “mandate” came from being the heir to a martyred president–and the civil rights act and foundations to great society came BEFORE his election in his own right. Once elected, he went ape shit on the Vietnam war.
Mandate, smandate. Owens won by a hair, did a fine job. Ritter won big and, well, did his best. But I’ve never seen a legislator look up a gov’s re-election numbers before voting on a bill.
On our planet, that’s the way it is.
It may get people more excited to vote for ACP candidates, which hurts other Republican candidates. But Hickenlooper is still NOT going to lose.
They’re excited to vote for Tom Tancredo.
But don’t try to extrapolate that.
Should the government deport 12 million illegal immigrants who are now in this country?
“Could you actually round them up and send them back? Well, yeah you could. It’s possible. But it’s not necessary. You can do what I call attrition through enforcement. If you enforce the laws against hiring people who are here illegally, aggressively. Not just with fines, but with jail time for folks who are found to be not just hiring but conspiring to bring people in. Believe me, you’d only have to do that a few times in high profile cases and you would see that the number of folks willing to actually take that risk go down dramatically, as would the number of folks who are illegally.” – Tom Tancredo
Tom will use free market principles, plus fair and firm enforcement of existing laws to put Americans back to work.
He made a solemn pledge to serve no more than three terms in Congress.
He lied. He served five.
No if, and or but about it, he lied.
Flat-out, no holds barred, lied.
Congressman Bob Shaffer also promised to leave after three terms.
He kept the promise!
What a concept, a politician who keeps his solemn word.
McInnis also lied about term limits, by the way, so the plaigiarism thing wasn’t that unexpected.
If you believe a word Tancredo says, contact me immediately. I have a ranchette in the San Luis Valley I want to sell you!
Not without his flaws and troubles but he got re-elected, accomplished a lot, the good times were really rolling for our little business as they never have since (not that some of the seeds for melt down weren’t planted during his time) and left with popularity in the 60s in spite of the whole stained dress impeachment thing. Hick can win by a plurality and still go on to be a very successful two term Guv.
Attempting to establish the conventional wisdom by publishing bogus polling, Rasmussen did it to themselves this time.
BTW – Razzy will stop publicizing their poll results in a couple of weeks so they can claim their inaccurate polls were due to not polling up to the election. Count on it.
One often hears “hoist on their own petard,” as if a petard is a spear they were hoisted on. That’s wrong. As the wiki notes:
So caroman wins today’s proper use of metaphor award: a mint condition, never used, Tom Tancredo campaign promise in which the ultimately five term congressman solemnly pledged to serve no more than three terms.
Thanks, V.
estinal gas,
I once saw a Flying Karamazov show
called “le petomane”
It’s a phrase I’ve heard on occasion but only guessed its meaning from context. I much appreciate the digression.
I agree Rasmussen is a terrible poll.
So do Senators Martha Coaxley and Elizabeth Dole.
Fact is that 538.com that no one accuses of bias rates Rasmussen as a reliable pollster. A more apt question is why in no poll has Hick been able to get above 50%?
They just factor them all together into the mix.
Fivethirtyeight.com has Hickenlooper with a 97% chance of winning this election. Tancredo has 3%. What does that tell you?
Hick is still the likely winner but has never broken 50%. I bet he wishes Dave Kenney was at his side
Silver ranks Rasmussen below 19 other polling operations including…
SurveyUSA
Field Poll
ABC/Washington Post
Mason-Dixon
Pew Research
AP
Public Policy Polling
Gallup
NBC/Wall Street Journal
and others
Plus they refuse to abide by NCPP/AAPOR disclosure standards.
I agree with you totally as do Senators Coaxley and Dole.
tell you, but Rasmussen’s final Mass poll predicted a Coakley win…
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Sorry to crush your Gov Tancredo pipe dreams.
Rasmussen is a great pollster, which means Tancredo really is only a few points behind Hick.
&
Rasmussen is a terrible pollster, which means Tancredo is actually beating Hick.
Amazing!
The polls simply show that Tancredo is surging and with Maes and Hick in decline.
They’re still predicting the mayor wins.
…political observers on here, but just in case I’ll give it a shot.
Only 7 days prior to the final poll, Rasmussen surveyed Massachusetts voters and found Coakley with a 9% lead. Rasmussen last polled the MA-Sen race on January 11th, a full 8 days before the special election, with Coakley retaining a lead, this time at just 2%. That’s a 7% swing in 7 days. Even if you suggest that an additional 7% swing over the final 8 days is unthinkable, this fact obliterates the CoPols fantasy that Rasmussen has a built-in “house effect” in favor of Republicans.
The poll shows conservative votes at 50%, the Dem gets 42%, leaving 8% to be split.
Assuming this cycle people will be less inclined to split vote and the 8% undecided break 60-70% GOP, then all Democrats in tight races must be nervous.
I hate the last month before an election on Pols. The place swarms with trolls.
First, your statement that “this fact obliterates CoPols fantasy that Rasmussen has a built-in “house effect” in favor of Republicans.”
The reality: Rasmussen favors Republicans more than other polls. Not a fantasy, a statistical fact…
Nate Silver: “their polls have tended to show substantially more favorable results for Republican candidates than the average of other surveys”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
Second, Rasmussen is the ONLY polling operation that has this race in single digits. They claimed an 8 point race two weeks ago, and now they claim it’s a four point race.
A month and a half ago (8/29), when Rasmussen claimed it was an 8 point race, polling conducted at the exact same time by the bipartisan POS/FM3 research team determined it was a 23 point spread. Even Republican pollster Magellan polled the race 3 days earlier and found a 19 point spread.
Every pollster saw a trend in favor of Scott Brown. That wasn’t something unique to just them.
Forgive me for calling bullshit on Rasmussen, but their numbers are “a fantasy”.
November 3rd will prove one of us right. I was just offering the other side, since CoPols relies on its few token conservatives to relieve its readership of pure single-mindedness.
I genuinely hope you aren’t just a paid shill and you’ll stick around past the election.
As much as I disagree with Libertad, Laughing Boy, BJ, H-Man, etc…
They do add some, uh, “flavor” to the site.
n/t
Ras doesn’t tell so there’s no way to assess when they arejust MSU or when they are on to something.
It appears that Ras wanted MA voters to realize that Coakly was dying and Brown was surging. Which is what voters believed. Did they believe it because it was happening? Or did it happen because they believed it? Or both? Or neither?
n/t
It’s obvious to anyone with a brain that the Dems now have the R’s right where they want them.
the question is whether he will take cory gardner with him?
to borrow from John McCain… 😉
Like the Republic of Korea?
Ever hear of the DDR?
Are you secretly a Republican plant designed to make libs look like they’re completely nuts?
I suspect s/he has irritable bowel syndrome.
I must note however, that over the last few weeks Ive seen a slippage in Voys spin on the facts. Voy, Markey is DOA. LS is right, people are voting for Tom Tancredo.
Obama-Pelosi showed America no dignity in their overreach. Those that backed them down the line (mayors, senators, congressmen) kept hoping for unemployment to return to 8%.
We have a dysfunctional unemployment rate of 18% … the citizens will likely not be sending Democrats back to conduct more economic destruction.
Poor or rich and without regard to government classification of the human race you were birthed from we are all on average doing worse under Obama’s leadership.
So how’s that pro business democrat thing working out for ya … well not so good the people thought as they checked down their ballot.
But NO you had to rant and write some sort of nonsense article, Bashing Democrats trying to Fix our country. Democrats dealing with republican obstructionism. then republicans accept NO responsibility for Keeping Unemployment High By that very OBSTRUCTIONISM in employment Bills.
The only Idea republicans have is the very same policy that got us into this economic
mess.
it must be lonely in your world Libertard, knowing how you work day after day to undermine the progress of the United States of America.
Obama failed to govern from the middle. Like a teenager with a hard-on he just couldn’t help himself and acted on his own warped desires and without regard to the LT interests of America.
There is hope for you yet Fro, remember you’ve been fucked by Obama-Pelosi too.
the Reality is, Obama governs from the CENTER.
anything left of John Galt is commie to you.
I will not believe (R)asmussin as accurate… statistical analysis proves it is’nt.
aare on Magnettic backs ready to be recycled. To avoid the inevitable vandalism from frustrated ignorant people.
or have been torn off and the cars vandalized by zealous republicans.
And I’m quite proud of it.
But I’ll happily get a new one for 2012. The one on my mailbox, too.
LSLB is right, people are voting for Tom TancredoDeutschland Democratic Republic = East Germany. IT was a Soviet bloc Country, Behind the iron Curtain. In 1989 GORBACHEV opened the Brandenburg gate and allowed East and West Germany to reunite.
Since then Germany has surpassed the USA in Solar and Wind Technology and employs a large portion of its labor force in renewable energy.
Like Post war japan and the car industry republicans have allowed the rest of the world to pass us by.
yes I enjoy exposing your ignorant plebe as what he is. bj needs to learn the descrepency between countries names and how they were/are governed… LB I tease you with this too.
Speaking of Germany.
Republicans spew “socialist like Hitler.” Hitler was NOT a socialist he was and governed as, a Fascist.
only the party he was accepted into and hijacked, had socialism in the name.
IT is tough talking to republicans if they are not on the same page as reality.
Deutschland Democratic Republic = East Germany. IT was a Soviet bloc Country, Behind the iron Curtain. In 1989 GORBACHEV opened the Brandenburg gate and allowed East and West Germany to reunite.
Since then Germany has surpassed the USA in Solar and Wind Technology and employs a large portion of its labor force in renewable energy.
Like Post war japan and the car industry republicans have allowed the rest of the world to pass us by.
yes I enjoy exposing your ignorant plebe as what he is. bj needs to learn the descrepency between countries names and how they were/are governed… LB I tease you with this too.
Speaking of Germany.
Republicans spew “socialist like Hitler.” Hitler was NOT a socialist he was and governed as, a Fascist.
only the party he was accepted into and hijacked, had socialism in the name.
IT is tough talking to republicans if they are not on the same page as reality.
The Democrats have failed to defend their policies and results.
other than Bull Shit Propaganda.
Did you see Polis wipe the floor with that steve guy? (defending policies)
or Pearlmutter (again defending policies) kicking the crap out of Frazier? on policy.
why is it when a republican is proven wrong four days in a row… he still comes back on the fifth insisting on the SAME misinformed Bull Shit?
The Swiss just bored the longest tunnel in the world. and republicans want tolls on crumbling bridges here in the US.
He won’t.
What if Tancredo actually wins? Though I am not one, I agree with “most informed politicos in Colorado” that Tanc can’t win. But if by some miracle he does, there is no reason to believe that he will be anything other than an unqualified disaster. Everyone (including me) loves to dump on Palin, but what useful qualifications does Tanc have? What substantive plan does he have to deal with the pending budget shortfall? If he sticks to his “principals” and slashes government services while advocating for ever increasingly extreme anti-immigrant policies, he will do irreparable damage to the republican brand (even if he is a newly converted constitutional party member). Nothing will bring out the fastest growing voter block in Colorado (Hispanics) in 2014 more effectively than 4 years of Gov. Tanc.
Having Palin win nationally might also do wonders for the Democrats in the long run: if we SEE a long run.
We are going to have serious, serious problems in this state calling for serious solutions. It will not be pretty. Hickenlooper is a far better choice than Tancredo to deal with them.
Good one, worm.
+1
We are constantly told “not to worry.” SOMA is the pill that people took in “Brave New World” when reality would begin to pinch at the edges of their happy dazes…to restore that sense of well being in the face of absolute disaster…
When the republicans take over the governor’s office and control the state legislature, they will simply change the rules governing minority party status…No Problamo
It is the job of ColoPols to defend its “Big Line.” and reassure dems that everything is okay. SOMA
Now Tancredo said that he would cut out the $250,000,000 medicaid increases which the state did voluntarily. Does anyone have a clue as to what he is talking about.
I know that dems and hickenlooper will not respond, because they are pretending that tancredo doesn’t exist.
besides the dems are too polite to ask embarrassing questions…
“I proclaim publicly that I favor ending government involvement in education.”
He signed this “proclamation” in the form of a petition. (So did John Andrews, but he’s not running for anything this cycle.)
But Tancredo is. No one has been paying much attention to him, but Tancredo has said
So what about it Tancredo supporters? Buck believes we can and so should eliminate the Dept of Education, Tancredo believes we should eliminate public funding of schools. Are you ready for completely privatized schools?
Until the campaign finance laws have actual teeth, he has a better chance of getting the pony.
Perlmutter serves in Congress. He can fix the laws. Here’s something that ought to be high on his “to do” list:
FIX THE FREAKIN’ CAMPAIGN FINANCE LAWS.
I respond to a diary about Perlmutter. It’s there on my screen. I can see it.
It gets posted against a diary about Rasmussen.
While this will undoubtedly just make BJ happy, I think I need to quit posting until this problem is fixed.
But I don’t think they’re zero. I think Hick shouldnfight back, at least a little. Voters don’t appreciate a candidate who assumes they’ll win.
If Tancredo wins, that will teach the Democrats a lesson.
if he had spent most of his money running a primary against a narcissist.
That you can’t be too crazy to win in Colorado?
We don’t need more lessons. We still haven’t learned from our past ones!
I don’t think that your average Dem does either. We all laugh about it, but the “what if” is just scary enough to create action.
Hickenlooper is campaigning his ass off. Among other things, he’s being openly sane in debates. Hopefully so crazy it just might work. He’s been every where he should be.
Actually, I was… not ambivalent in the race, but on Hickenlooper in general (pick any sane Dem and whatever). Sort of like how I felt about Ritter; can’t think of a serious problem, in fact he did extremely well with the circumstances, but eh all the same. The more I hear Hick, which I do often without benefit of trying to, the more I like him. I just feel better.
At this point I don’t think Dems are taking races for granted and that they are motivated. Crap amendments and Hick will bring people out. The alternatives are just too damn frightening.
What makes you feel that he isn’t fighting?
He’s coming across as the sane one. But I would like to see him hammer Tancredo on his more ridiculous statements. Like what will Tancredo cut if 60/61/101 pass which Tancredo supports.
The saner he looks, the crazier the Tanc looks. Besides, we voters will hammer Tancredo for him.
Uhh, isn’t that fighting back. or fighting forward, or something?
I’m thinking of sponsoring a Democratic defeatist of the year contest. But I can’t think of anybody to run against you…;-)
Is that Hick is trying to stay above the fight and come across as the responsible grown-up. He debates the issues and stands up for himself – very well.
Maybe the best way to put it is it’s not bare knuckled fighting. If he can win without that, I think that would be terrific because I would like to see a more civil political battlefield.
But the closer Tancredo comes in the polls, the more I would prefer to see a bit more bloody attack. A bit more.
As to defeatist, I think it’s more my background in the start-up world where Only the Paranoid Survive. I figure one should take a pessimistic view when determining how to campaign.
I don’t recall negative Mayoral campaign ads either. That worked out ok.
He is who he is. Why stoop to the level of the others?
If Tanc somehow pulls the wool over enough eyes to win, he’ll be the most surprised, unprepared Governor ever to darken the door of the capital.
It’d be a hard lesson for the voters of Colorado, but if that’s the will of the majority, so be it.
But this is such an awful year for us Democrats.
And you’re handwringing again.
I refuse to be Little Susie Sunshine saying we’re doing everything perfect. Better to keep evaluating the campaigns and adjust as indicated.
or doing anything perfect, let alone everything.
It’s pure unadulterated handwringing.
Aden isn’t going anywhere. And I’d like to note that I scooped this story first – you could have just promoted my diary.
Diaries get promoted because they’re good.
Yours have a way to go.
including one with the record for the most comments ever. So I think my diaries aren’t too bad.
And how do you equate comments with “good” except in your own delusional mind?
You post a diary and 200 people tell you that you’re full of shit, does that make a diary good?
And how many of those diaries were promoted by David?
Lots of questions for you to answer, BJ. Fire away.
was promoted by “popular demand” by CoPols.
I knew it would piss me off and my reasoning would get absolutely nowhere, so I didn’t open it. Past experiences tell me your description of comments and responses are probably exactly right.
Anyway, he doesn’t understand the distinction you’re trying to make. Your time is better spent reading Macbeth to your dog.
Well, the mutt would. The black lab, not so much. Her attention span is even shorter than BJ’s.
A) They were all legitimate responses to other posts. I wasn’t just adding comments to get the comment total up.
B) You don’t get to decide which comments are good and which aren’t. The fact that so many people posted indicated that it was a topic a lot of people were interested in.
C) Only you were saying that. Other people were debating the issues.
D) David doesn’t count? He’s the most sane of the FPEs.
Does it make you feel like taking a shower?
Seeing as David is “the most sane of the FPEs”…
If he tells you that your comments aren’t good, will you believe him?
he probably wouldn’t have promoted any of my diaries. I’m talking quality, not ideology.
He hasn’t even done that to me.
He really dislikes you and your comments. All of them. Uniformly. He hasn’t ever said anything nice about you.
He’s got a reputation to maintain.
400 comments saying you were a loon for attacking “evil-lution” and defending “fertilised eggs are people” and 100 fiery answers from you saying you were not a loon, the world was indeed created in six days (though you fudge a bit about the length of the “days” and that fertised eggs are people, etc. I promoted it, but it was mostly a freak show piece, not a serious exposition of anything.
You did have a really good diary with stuff on buck vs. Norton.
The other good one was about csu’s redistribute the wealth tuition policy, which, amazingly, you supported. I would have promoted that one, but I wasn’t an fre yet.
given how they whine about other sites stealing their stuff.
There are SO many reasons it makes almost no difference whatsoever. And if Aden gets enough votes to get Betsy Markey over the hump, I’ll eat my shorts…and post a video of said short-eating on YouTube. And, I suppose I’ll have to buy Dave his $375 dinner as Frascas. I just don’t see it.
I haven’t read all the comments so I’m not sure if this has already been addressed. The last two Rasmussen polls have given Hick around 42-43 percent, while every other recent poll has put him at about 46-48 percent. Real Clear Politics has Hick averaging 45 percent with Tanc averaging 35 and Maes averaging 13.3. With the ballots printed and already arriving in peoples homes (I got mine and filled it out today) it’s tough to see Maes dropping to only 3.3, which would be the required amount for Tanc to win (or tie). It’s a strange race and nobody should be surprised if the conservative votes start getting consolidated, but they won’t go that far. I personally think the absolute floor for Maes in this particular election is at least 7 (if even that low), which still gives Hick a 3.7 margin.
this doesn’t address how undecideds will swing. I’m just trying to keep this poll number in perspective.
RCP is averaging old polls. Given the rate at which Tancredo has been picking up support, that stuff is old news. Maes only has to drop a few more percent while Tancredo picks up a little more support from undecideds. If Hickenlooper were gaining support at all it would be impossible, but he’s been stuck at around 44% since the beginning of the race.
but one of the main points I was making was that Rasmussen seems to be the outlier here. Like I said, this is a strange race and I’m not sure which model is going to ultimately be proven accurate. But a lot of the momentum Tanc is getting appears to be at the expense of Maes, and that would ultimately bottom out (I think pretty soon). But you are absolutely correct, Hick is having real problems getting over the 44-45 hump. I think if he get’s to 47-48, it’s done. Outside of Rasmussen, Tanc doesn’t seem to be peeling off votes from Hick. I know you may not agree with me, but I think at worst (as a Hick supporter) the undecideds break even between Hick and Tanc. I am also very curious about the potential for voters who may decide this race is lost for the right, but still vote R just for the hope of staying above the 10 point threshold. I don’t know, I follow closely but this is just strange.
On RCP Rasmussen is the most common pollster. In the last monthish, there have been 4 Rasmussen polls, 1 CNN/Time, 1 Mcclatchy/Marist, 1 DP/SurveyUSA, and 1 PPP (D). So Rasmussen has accounted for half of the polling in the last few weeks. Since I personally think polling this year is all about the models, this could be either very telling or very misleading.
RCP only uses the most recent poll of the various pollsters in formulating their average. So all of the earlier Rasmussen polls would be ignored.
538 on the other hand uses, but weighs less, the earlier polls by the same pollsters.
but in the last 2 posts I was addressing the momentum. rasmussen is the only pollster that is showing hicks support slipping while the others are showing all the momentum tanc is getting is at the expense of Maes. There is only so far a R will go down, and to be honest we are probably at that point or close to it. Rasmussen is showing hicks support about 3-6 points lower than all other pollsters, so any suggestion of shifting momentum is possibly misleading. We will all see which model is correct.
In no poll has the Mayor ever broken 50% even though he has spent a lot of money on TV. This means no coattails from the top of the ticket.
I fear Democratic losses in the other statewide races and losing the majority in both houses of the Legislature
And I think most of the down-ticket candidates will have to win it on their own. On the flip side, I think a lot of them have a good shot, both because we have a lot of quality candidates and because a lot of the Republican candidates are atrocious.