President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Kamala Harris

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) V. Archuleta

98%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Marshall Dawson

95%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

50%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(D) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank

(D) River Gassen

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) John Fabbricatore

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen

(R) Sergei Matveyuk

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

70%↑

30%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

March 22, 2011 09:29 PM UTC

Debbie Ortega's Magical Mystery Poll

1 Comments
by: Colorado Pols

Update: Ortega campaign manager Ben Gordon shot us an e-mail with some information from Denver polling firm Kupersmit Research.

That memo goes a little more in-depth on the poll Ortega is passing around, though it’s still a little vague in our mind. Apparently, the Kupersmit telephone poll targeted 500 Denver “likely voters.” Indeed, if Ortega was basing her claims on this telephone poll, it does look as if she’s “ahead 14%” after voters heard “a brief statement on her behalf.” Of course, this claim is only backed up by the line “Though voters are largely undecided in the City Council At-Large election, Ortega is currently ahead by 14%,” which doesn’t seem specific enough for us to label the poll as a be-all end all indicator. We obviously didn’t get to look at the specific metrics of the poll.

We can’t say that the data Ortega’s going off of is entirely representative of the race. It does certainly seem, however, that this specific poll indicates that Ortega’s name recognition is the highest in the race. Whether or not the poll accurately gauges voter intent, the name ID data-point might be a decent indicator.

We should also note that the polling memo we received was too vague to entirely establish the legitimacy of the poll, though it’s comforting to know that Ortega isn’t just making this up on the spot, necessarily.

The original text of the diary is below.

In both an e-mail we received and a subsequent diary posted by her staff here on Pols, City Council At-Large candidate Debbie Ortega‘s claiming quite the accomplishment:

After 16 years on City Council and over 30 years working with the City of Denver, I am humbled to get back some great news from our campaign research.

It’s nice to know that my work serving Denver residents has resonated with so many of my neighbors, giving me a 14 point lead in the polls and a very solid 44 percent name recognition throughout the entire city.

We can’t argue with promoting a poll like this. After all, that’s a huge margin in a race for city council.

Our problem with this poll, though, is the fact that Ortega can’t really substantiate it. We’re trying to get this straight: the Ortega campaign sends out an e-mail saying they’ve got a 14 point lead and nowhere in that e-mail or on her website does Ortega offer any information about the polling data.

Who did the poll? When was it conducted? Who paid for it? Who was polled? Likely voters? Voters? Residents? Ortega supporters? Debbie’s neighbors?

Folks, it’s one thing to discredit the accuracy of polling information when most Denver voters aren’t totally aware there’s an election yet. It’s another thing altogether to claim numbers like these without any substantiation. In fact, if you can just post that you’re ahead in the polls without any collaborating information, how is this different than just making the numbers up?

One thought on “Debbie Ortega’s Magical Mystery Poll”

John Tzekara says:

March 24, 2011 at 2:41 pm

that name ID seems astronomically high for the race. Hell I bet 44% of voters couldn’t name people current mayor of Denver or the Lt. Governor of Colorado.

Did they ask if they were familiar with her after reading the “brief statement?”

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Debbie Ortega's Magical Mystery Poll

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