Markey Leads Musgrave by Seven in New Poll

Those of you with better memories than ours may remember better, but if we’re not mistaken this is the furthest behind Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave has ever been heading into an election. As Roll Call reports:

Democrats descended on Denver this week for their nominating convention as a way of signaling their commitment to making the Centennial State – and the Mountain West as a whole – competitive in the presidential race. The poll done for Roll Call seemed to bear that out, as McCain led Obama by just 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

Meanwhile, Musgrave trailed Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call [Pols emphasis]. Seven percent remained undecided. In an equally troubling sign for Musgrave, 51 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the three-term Congresswoman, while 31 percent viewed her favorably.

The poll of 618 likely voters was taken Aug. 22-24. It had a 4-point margin of error.

The survey found that Markey had a big lead among female voters, 53 percent to 38 percent. The two women were essentially tied among male voters.

More importantly, Markey had a huge lead in two voter groups that will be essential in deciding the election: independents and moderates. She led by 30 points among independent voters, 59 percent to 29 percent, and by 41 points among self-described moderates, 67 percent to 26 percent. Musgrave will have to close the gap in those two groups in order to have a chance at making the race competitive heading into Election Day.

17 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. redstateblues says:

    She led by 30 points among independent voters…and by 41 points among self-described moderates.

    Those numbers are staggering. Musgrave has time though.

  2. Arvadonian says:

    Sending Polis to congress will be made all the sweeter by bringing the Mad Cow back to Colorado!

    Heard the first Markey ad on the radio this AM slamming Musgrave for her publicity stunt/fact finding mission trip to Alaska.  

    • sxp151 says:

      when, for just a brief moment, Paccione led the polls against Musgrave (before all that nasty bankruptcy stuff came out all over the TV and radio).

      The contempt people feel in Longmont and Fort Collins for Musgrave is amazing. It’s quite possible to have someone respected by voters in other parties, but Musgrave is one of the most divisive Congresspeople I’ve ever seen.  

    • That ad was an independent expenditure ad, not a campaign ad.  But it certainly hit Musgrave hard for her stunts.

  3. DavidThi808 says:

    I’m sure Musgrave will throw everything she can at Betsy but I think Betsy will respond effectively – and that will be the end of MM.

    The Republican party in Colorado is in serious danger of becoming a secondary force for some time.

  4. Karinthy says:

    Congresswoman Markey does sound nice.

  5. Getting Tancredo and Musgrave both out of Congress in one year would be a gift to the citizens of Colorado and this nation.

    I’ll hold my breath; this could be a serious outlier poll, but it’s not going to encourage the NRCC to spend money here.

    • twas brillig says:

      Poll Tracker | CO-04



           Aug 26 SurveyUSA

           Markey (D) 50%, Musgrave (R) 43%



           Nov 3 SurveyUSA

           Musgrave (R) 44%, Paccione (D) 43%



           Oct 30 Const. Dyn.

           Paccione (D) 48%, Musgrave (R) 45%



           Oct. 27 Str. Services (D)

           Paccione (D) 45%, Musgrave (R) 42%



           Oct 25 Str. Services (D)

           Paccione (D) 45%, Musgrave (R) 42%



           Oct 18 SurveyUSA

           Musgrave (R) 48%, Paccione (D) 38, Eidsness (Ref) 10%



           Oct 10 Mason-Dixon

           Musgrave (R) 46%, Paccione (D) 36%



           Oct 3 Str. Services (D)

           Musgrave (R) 42%, Paccione (D) 42%



           Sept 21 SurveyUSA

           Musgrave (R) 46%, Paccione (D) 42%



           Sept 6 Constituent Dyn.

           Musgrave (R) 47%, Paccione (D) 41%

      • One Queer Dude says:

           I recalled that there was a poll that had Angie slightly ahead, but they were both in the mid to high 40s.

          Wow, Betsy Markey is boldly going where no CD 4 Dem has gone before!

  6. ohwilleke says:

    for the GOP thanb she already was, while providing little or no benefit to the GOP (which is sure to be in the minority in 2009 in the House where there is no filibuster power).

    Republicans aren’t supposed to have to spend big bucks to defense supposedly safe GOP seats like CO-4.

    This race is a win for the Dems, win or lose.

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