July 28, 2025 10:17 AM UTC

Gabe Evans Is Officially America's Most Vulnerable Incumbent™

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• by: Colorado Pols

Ernest Luning of the Colorado Springs Gazette’s political blog reported Friday on new National Journal rankings of the top 2026 U.S. House races, and with the exception of Rep. Don Bacon’s opening swing seat in Nebraska the hottest race in America is expected to be Colorado’s Eighth Congressional District, where MAGA faithful freshman Rep. Gabe Evans is looking like the political equivalent of a dead man walking:

The freshman Republican representing Colorado’s most competitive congressional district ranks as the country’s most vulnerable House incumbent in the National Journal’s initial list of the 2026 battleground seats.

U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans, a former police officer and one-term state lawmaker, finished in second place on the venerable publication’s Hotline’s 2026 House Power Rankings, behind an open Nebraska seat represented by a retiring Republican.

An excerpt from what National Journal had to say about the race:

Winning reelection as a freshman is one of the most difficult feats in politics. Evans, one of the GOP’s strongest recruits last year, faces a challenge in a two-cycle-old district that has had two representatives. No candidate—former Rep. Yadira Caraveo or Evans—has cleared 50 percent in an election, and it’s likely to be another knife fight in a dark alley.

Evans’ biggest downside in his bid for re-election is one of his own making that we’ve unpacked in this space at length: despite representing a district drawn to favor a political moderate, Gabe Evans has emerged as one of the Trump administration’s most tireless defenders, rushing to offer excuses for unpopular moves by Trump and later the Republican budget bill that he didn’t have to risk and have left Evans branded as a MAGA toady. Evans’ strident support for Trump is a terrible fit for this district, and as Trump’s favorability declines Evans’ sinks with him. Evans’ narrow margin of victory in 2024 means he can’t afford to lose any support, so if Trump fails to recover, Evans’ goose could well be cooked on the same coattails he rode to office.

The biggest advantage Evans has in his favor at the moment, as NJ notes and Luning picks up the reporting, is the “clown car” primary on the Democratic side:

[NJ] said Evans has some potential advantages heading into the campaign, including a crowded Democratic primary and a fundraising edge.

In addition to Caraveo, the other Democrats running for the seat include state Reps. Manny Rutinel, D-Commerce City, and Shannon Bird, D-Westminster; term-limited State Treasurer Dave Young; former Colorado Education Association President Amie Baca-Oehlert; and Marine veteran Evan Munsing, who launched his candidacy last week. A seventh Democrat, Denis Abrate, has filed to run but doesn’t appear to have an active campaign.

In our roundup of the latest fundraising numbers for the Democratic candidates running for the nomination to take out Evans in November of 2026, there are signs that the large Democratic primary field in CO-08 could quickly consolidate into a two-person race between state Sen. Shannon Bird and Rep. Manny Rutinel, the two strongest candidates in terms of material support. Despite a strong built-in advantage in name recognition, the seat’s former holder Yadira Caraveo’s bid for a comeback has been compromised by negative press related to mental health struggles and treatment of staff during her first term.

Gabe Evans’ best ally at this point is the uncertainty of his opponent. And that’s not going to last.