U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 05, 2024 01:55 AM UTC
32 Comments
Predictable posting predictors who agree with my predictions:
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions
Always avoid any and all alliteration.
Should but shorn't
Dixville Notch was 6-0 for Haley in the primary. Today, it was 3-3 between Harris & Trump.
I'll be delighted if half the Haley vote moves to support Harris.
I honestly believe Harris will handily win election. Trumps’ behavior suggests he may share that opinion.
Not a prediction, mlnd you, just a feeling.
It's almost as if he's trying to lose. His remarks over the last few days have sounded so nutty and downright insulting to his vaunted "base". It makes me think he's trying to see just how stupid his acolytes are,
Harris 319. Fascist 219.
i gave all tossups to Harris. Why not?
Dems win House. No idea about the Senate.
I'm with Duke & itlduso – tsunami for Harris.
And if I had to bet – Texas (Harris & Allred) go Democratic and Florida once again breaks Democratic hearts and goes Republican.
Even with your bit about Florida breaking Democratic hearts, you are exceptionally optimistic.
It's a good way to live. Put your trust in the American people to do the right thing.
Harris 308, Princeps Donaldus Trumpus Caesar Augustus 230
House: Democrat 222, Trump Cult 213
Senate: Non Trump Cult (includes Independents, Socialists, Very conservative dudes from Nebraska who are nonetheless not in a cult) 49, Trump Cult 51
119th Congress hobbled by bizarre obstructionism by the Trump Cult in the Senate makes it so government can’t do much except sell humongous bombs to Israel. Filibuster reconsidered.
Musk may have committed sweepstakes fraud, according to his own people.
The courts aren't stopping him:https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/elon-musk-1-million-giveaway/index.html
WOTD: "Like an Antifa Nancy Drew". Trump Campaign White Sumprecist Luke Meyer
Trump Campaign Fires White Nationalist In Its Midst
Reporter Amanda Moore discovered that the real-life version of a white nationalist online persona was the Trump campaign’s regional field director in western Pennsylvania. Luke Meyer, 24, admitted he went by “Alberto Barbarossa” online and was fired by the Trump campaign Friday after Moore presented her findings.
Meyer went out with a line for the ages, sending an email to Moore that said, “I am glad you pieced these little clues together like an antifa Nancy Drew.”
If I’m Moore, “Like An Antifa Nancy Drew” goes on my business card, is the title of my memoir, and is etched on my gravestone. People go entire careers without a plaudit as rich as that.
There has never been a candidate in US history who has more at stake than Trump: Win or go to jail.
Presumably he has made the calculation (as much as possible in his addled mind) that his best route is to insult everyone versus saying anything normal.
Insanity or genius? We'll soon find out.
I don't think this country has had more at stake in terms of an electoral outcome since the Civil War.
Saw a great ad last night:
This is one data point, but I think it's being repeated millions of times across the country.
A friend of my wife can't vote (not a U.S. citizen). Her husband, from what little we hear of him, is your typical Trump bro. 100% for Trump.
And apparently last night, after a long discussion, with lots of tears, and a plea to do what's best for her and their daughters – he's going to vote for Harris.
It'll be a tsunami for Harris.
Regardless of the final vote result – Harris ran a perfect campaign!
And how??? How do you get everything exactly right with no mis-steps?
She knocked every expectation I had out of the park. Telegenic, plus pretty cool and collected in public given the circumstances. VP can be such an invisible position, but the combo of AG of Cali, US Senate, and VP ranks second to me in relevant experience among the other first-time winning candidates we've had this century.
She did run an excellent campaign. Imagine where we would be if Biden were still the candidate? YIKES!
The only thing I did not understand was her ruluctance to sit for interviews. I think she's intelligent and presents well.
She also benefited from a good economy. Imagine how pissed off voters would be if it really sucked. Biden was a good president except for Gaza and campaigning. He also was the one who asked her to be his vice-president. History will have a mixed view of him but he definitely made some right decisions along the way.
How? By developing a willingness and an ability to listen and learn as a fundamental skill. Being whip-smart doesn’t hurt.
Trump Media DJT Market Cap Worth more than Twitter. Brad DeLong.
I'll bet there is a lot buying/briging from Saudi, Russian, Musk & other billionaires.
I'm sticking with my prediction from yesterday. The House ends up 218-217 in the GOP's favor, but if Mary Peltola and Jared Golden can hang on, it ends up 218-217 in the Dems favor.
The Senate ends up 52-48 in the GOP favor (picking up WV, OH and MT), unless something horrible happens in which case all those Dems narrowly ahead (Slotkin, Casey, Baldwin) get pulled under.
The EV count ends with 302 for Trump, 236 for Harris. Harris wins the popular vote.
And I will be extremely happy to be eating a big plate of crow tomorrow if my POTUS and House predictions are wrong.
This is why the Dems will gain a LOT more in the house
Not to toss-up, to leans Dem!
Damn! If that comes true, this could be a much better evening all around.
If Harris pulls out a win, she is probably facing a Republican Senate for her full four years.
Assuming Sherod Brown pulls off a win, then the Dems only lose WV and MT giving the GOP a 51/49 split in January.
Come 2026, there are only two seats that are competitive: Jon Ossof in GA and Susan Collins in ME.
Collins is a perennial favorite target for Dems but they always come up short.
Ossof will be serious trouble if Brian Kemp is his opponent. OTOH, maybe Ossof will get lucky and Marjorie Taylor Green will try to take her shit show over to the Senate side of the Capitol.
At any rate, whatever the breakdown ends up being in January will probably be the breakdown until 2028.
Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS your analysis seems spot on, with supporting details.
I will repeat my unchanged optimistic prediction
House: Democrat 222, Trump Cult 213
On the Senate, what does anyone know about Dan Osborn in Nebraska? I admit I’m speculating that he’d caucus with the non-Trump Cult party when it comes time to elect leadership, and relish the powerfule role of a Joe Manchin-ish figure. Obviously he’s not going to talk about that while the election is in process — that would be an unforced error — he seems pretty savvy getting this far as an independent candiate
Whatever the outcome tonight, one thing's for sure: Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS.
and a curmudgeon.
Loving how Pennsylvania is shaping up for Harris.