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November 09, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Wednesday Open Thread

  • 102 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“The triumph can’t be had without the struggle.”

–Wilma Rudolph

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102 thoughts on “Wednesday Open Thread”

  1. Maga Meltdowns…so sweet.

     

    Caraveo and Frisch still plus 2…Good for us!

    Warnock and Fetterman winning but Abrams and O’Rourke lost 😥 we’ll probably hold the Senate, too early to tell on the House.

    1. What a sweet morning.  @JonRalstrom reporting there are probably enough mail-in ballots (100,000 ) in Clark County for CCM to make up her slight deficit from in-person voting.  

        1. They’re reporting the Governor is less certain. His deficit is larger than CCM

          Reportedly the Secretary of State did not have enough staff to count mail-ins from Clark County yesterday so that counting begins today and will be overwhelmingly Dem.

          1. I just heard on the radio that  the uncounted votes were from Grand Junction area which is considered Bobert country.  Does anyone have any more accurate information.  This was on AM710 at 10am, 11/9/22

            1. No. Most of the unreported votes are from Pueblo, where Dems are more numerous.

              Boobert isn't holding the R vote with her base county of Mesa, the largest cache of R votes in the district. She's winning the county with 56 percent but she needs more than 60. Two years ago, if memory serves, she won 65 percent in Mesa County.

              Conversely, Frisch has been winning Pueblo County on a percentage basis roughly 55-45. If that holds, things look very good for him.

              Keep the faith, dwyer. There absolutely no decent radio news in Grand Junction and hasn't been for years.

               

               

            1. I doubt we'll see the money-losing food-poisoning factory again. If it turns out she can read a teleprompter, which is not a given, perhaps OAN or Newsmax might take her. Or a local Sinclair-owned local teevee station somewhere.

              Or maybe her fanboy the Garfield County sheriff might put her on the payroll.

              1. Two Gun Tootsie'll need a job as spokesmodel, where she can be seen, but not necessarily heard. Her speaking voice is extremely annoying. Like the brattiest teenager ever.

                Look for her to be dressed in a bikini and stilettos,  holding a power tool and/ or an AK47 in the photo feature of your next calendar. Negev might see her more often than most.

                 

                1. Spot on. It's what she was always meant to be. Congress was just a mistake along the way.

                  That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see her end on Yelling TV or Radio (doesn't deserve to be called "talk" anymore.)

                1. I don't think "too old to get a gig pole dancing at Shotgun Willie's" exists, but if necessary Sloebert can probably make bank on the wingnut welfare circuit, at least until even they get sick of her.

  2. I'm becoming more optimistic about the US House than I was leading up to the election. If the Dems keep control it will be by a narrower margin. But if things keep on the current trend in ballot counts we might be looking at a +5 in the House. In the Senate, it looks like either 51-49 or retain 50-50, depending on GA which will probably be a run-off.

    Dems did spectacularly in the state legislature though. I'm counting Senate at 23-13 and House at 45-19 with 1 still too close to call.

  3. Woke up to find Caraveo up by 2% or about 3,450 votes. I'm looking forward to finding out how people build out the explanation — blue wave in Colorado?  Opposition to culture war featuring anti-abortion? "the way the district was drawn"? Harder work in the ground game?

    Then was amazed to find Frisch up 50.6% to 49.4% — 3,475 votes ahead.  Colorado doing its part to show diminishing returns from representing some of the people some of the time. In a district drawn to be a lean of R+9, Boebert losing by ANY amount is a pretty clear indication that campaigning in Mar a Lago might not be the best tactic. .

    1. My explanation for the CD8 win, if it holds, which I think it will:

      Young Latine voters, economic realities, women, candidate quality, and a good ground game.

      Every under 40 voter, young Latine,  and woman I talked with at the doors was voting for Democrats,. There were several not voting, but if they were, they were on team blue. The Caraveo campaign sent canvassers to every working class neighborhood in Thornton- they didn’t scorn subsidized housing complexes because “ Those people don’t vote”.

      Barb Kirkmeyer’s brand is that she is an oil and gas industry booster. That industry is simply not as big a part of the economy as it once was. Plus, she comes across as judgmental and aloof- unlike the very relatable Dr C.

      Demographics- Thornton, Adams County, snd other blue areas have many more voters per square mile than Weld does. Kirkmeyer had little to no ground presence there, while Caraveo and the coordinated Dem campaign had an excellent one- speaking as someone who was a small part of that.

       

        1. Frisch ground game was busy and intense really. He did a Beto level of aggressively getting to every place in the CD-03 district he could and my Frisch sign off of 160 in SLV is still standing!  YAY for democracy

      4. Congratulations to all of you groundpounders who took this campaign to victory.  I find it very hard to walk but donated to about 20 campaigns, including Caraveo.  This was sweet.

  4. To quote our very own Nostradamus Biggest Loser: 

     

    Your party leaders are singly focused on climate change and gender fluidity, they cannot discern the problems relevant to working people.

    Climate change is a fraud. The world will not end in 12, 24, or 100 years because of oil and gas. As long as you allow the loudest and angriest voices of people like the Squad to be unchallenged you will continue to lose.

    The Democrats had control of the House, Senate, and Executive branch along with the old media. You fucked over the American people with open borders, energy policy, defunding the police, mask mandates, Afghanistan, systemic racism claims, corrupt FBI and DOJ, perverted gender issues, inflation, school indoctrination, and hug-a-thug crime policy.

    Nobody likes you.

      1. I can’t wait to see what name the genius comes up with next to trick all us Dimmycrats. 

        He’s probably clinging to his telly this morning tuned to OAN to get the REAL story about how we stole an election – and that Fat Donnie still reigns!

        1. To paraphrase that election denying idiot:

          The Republicans  obstructed the House, Senate, and Executive branch along with right wing media. You fucked over the American people with publicity stunts, energy policy, defunding the FBI, letting people get COVID, Russian help, systemic racism, corrupt local police, getting involved in the gender issues certain people face, having no policies to combat inflation, school indoctrination, and hug-an-insurrectionist crime policy.

          Nobody likes you.

    2. Listening to Denver metro drivetime radio this morning – the voters were too stupid, exceedingly stupid, for our own good.

      I wonder how many times that approach has worked. Every, anywhere.

      1. I listened to Kim 'Q' Monson this morning on KLZ.

        She was literally speechless … had to stammer more than usual just to get going. 

        Then right back to anti-vaxxers and COVID denying — and they wonder why Colorado Democrats ran the table.

    3. BWAHHAAA, the problem with MAGA is they are unable to BELIEVE in FACT. That doesn't change fact.  The door is open to return to sending oxygen to your grey matter. Or like Trump plead the 5th!!! 

        2. I'd never heard the term "Anger-tainment" before yesterday.  Adam Frisch absolutely nailed it on the head, and that would explain the solid cross-over votes from sane Republicans and Unaffiliateds!

          Hope this is the start of a major trend back to sanity.

      1. I certainly don't want to jinx the outcome, but I have been anxious to post this quotation….

        "Ding, Dong…the witch is dead."

        Hatred has narrowly lost…but it has not gone away.

        2. My fingers are crossed, Duke. The numbers are encouraging so far. The key, as always, is in Pueblo. And, again as always, the clerk's office there is taking its own sweet time reporting.

           

           

  6. In Fort Collins, the three referred issues regarding Council elections and pay passed (Coloradoan article):

    Ranked-choice voting will be implemented in the city, passing with just more than 57% of the vote after the second release of incomplete, unofficial ballot results Tuesday night. 

    The ballot measure to increase the pay of city council members was passing with almost 62% of the vote after the second round of ballot results were released Tuesday night. 

    The final change to Fort Collins elections that voters approved is moving general city elections to November of odd-numbered years to better align with other local elections.

    2. We don't know about CD 8 yet. NYT still thinks Kirkmeyer has more outstanding votes. But they were very wrong about Boebert, even if she ends up pulling it out – they predicted her winning by 17%

        1. That's not at all surprising. Neither paper has a clue about Colorado in general (both thought Bennet was endangered) let alone the 3rd CD. Hell, even what passes for the Denver media doesn't have a clue about the 3rd CD. I believe the late, great Carl Hilliard was the last.

  8. The exclamation point on 'Colorado is solid blue.'

    Jefferson County elected as Sheriff a woman who is a Democrat.

    Never in my lifetime …

  9. Abortion Messaging Really Helped.

    …exit poll data shows that more than 70% of young voters preferred Democrats in Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And more than 60% of young voters preferred Democrats in Georgia and Ohio. This matches what I've been seeing from early vote data. HUGE.

      1. Or is it self-flagellation of the GOPs, Doby?

        Several of the close races, including the prize in CD8, would be GOP victories except for the presence of more than one right-wing candidate.

        The Colorado GOP has been very divided since 2016, and I think it is fair to say the state will remain blue as long as they do.

        1. Yes, the schizophrenia/civil war going on within the GOP shows no sign of abating. 

          Trump is a product of the Gingrich strain of cancer that has taken hold in the party.  His continuing influence is accelerating the decline of the party's future prospects.

          If the battle between DeSantis and Trump intensifies, I could see Trump trying a 3rd party run like Ross Perot, giving the Dem candidate (whether Biden or someone else — Polis?) the Presidency in 2024.

            2. Legitimate question for Pear….. since Kristi Burton “Militia Mama” Brown just presided over one of the worst wipeouts in history for the Republicans, as party chair, I assume she will be stepping down.

              Who do you think will replace her? Has our party learned a lesson here, about doubling down on Trump, MAGA, election denial, banning abortion without exceptions, treating the oil & gas CEOs as gods to be worshipped, etc.? Or will we see more of the same shit going forward? Who will pick up the pieces? 

              1. The way the local Denver metro media use him as go to guy it seems Dick Wadhams is making a comeback.  
                Maybe one of the self-proclaimed media celebrities could step forward. 

                 

              2. Pretty clear, CO statehouse will be Democratic. More taxes, more regulations, more drugs. More California less Colorado. 
                Great weather very scenic, fantastic home value appreciation. 
                I’m going to switch my registration to “D”.  Who wants to be the first to welcome me?

                    1. What do you mean I "hurt your feelings?"
                      I didn't know you had any feelings

                      Seriously, if you do have feelings, I know I didn't hurt them. But last night did.

                      Fear not, there is a fascist utopia for you.  It's called Florida.

                4. State income tax will go down, so please explain what taxes will go up, particularly in light of TABOR.  I'll take more California less nativist bullshit, thanks.  Perhaps you should move to TX and FL, where you'll be welcomed with open (and concealed) arms.

  11. I'd love to read more commentary (here or elsewhere) re: the role of gerrymandered districting in all of the election results. Despite the fact that there was a lot of partisan manipulation (or attempted manipulation) of Colorado's redistricting process, for the most part districts here seemed to be drawn fairly (agreed?).

    And look at the results – a blue state! This ought to be telling people something. The results in many red states and at the national level are substantially skewed by the manipulation of district boundaries to benefit white conservatives (IMO). 

    1. Colorado's redistricting is an interesting story I think. With the "competitive districts" angle, there was a lot of fear about results. In the end Dems outperformed and we wound up on the winning end of what might be a very tipsy map.

  12. Have to say it again – what a glorious day.

    Here's hoping that if the Republicans take the House, it's with a majority of 1. Or at least less than 5. That will be truly ungovernable as there will be about 40 there who will consider any kind of compromise to be unacceptable. What a shitshow we'll see.

  13. Markos had a good discussion of the anxiety vs results. Two polling questions:

    PRELIMINARY CBS NEWS EXIT POLL — NATIONAL:
    Which ONE of these issues mattered most in your vote?
    Inflation 32%
    Abortion 27%
    Crime 12%
    Gun policy 12%
    Immigration 10%

    But from the same poll. However feelings Abortion were much more intense.:

    How do you feel about the Supreme Court decision on abortion?
    Dissatisfied/angry 60%
    Enthusiastic/satisfied 37%

    Do you think immigrants to the US today do more to
    Help the country? 54%
    Hurt the country? 37%

    Is racism in the US…
    A major problem? 51%
    A minor problem? 30%
    Not a problem? 16%

    Do you think democracy in the US today is…
    Threatened? 70%
    Secure? 27%

      1. Alaska will count ranked votes on Nov. 23.  First, they redistribute the Librrtarian's 2 percent.

        Then to third rank begich.  If even one sixth of his vote goes to Peltola, she wins.

         

  16. Brad Delong has the best take that I've seen.

    A much better day-after take comes from the SubStack of Matt Yglesias:

    "Matt Yglesias: Democrats pulled off one of the best midterms ever: I was wrong…. Democrats’ best issue was clearly abortion when the Supreme Court hung an albatross around Republicans’ necks. Democrats ran lots of ads about abortion. Lots and lots and lots of ads. To the point where a lot of people on both sides thought they were really fucking up by not doing more to be visibly addressing the crime and inflation issues that voters said was more important. I always thought the abortion-centric ad strategy was the right choice among the choices available, but I still didn’t really think it would work. Yet looking around, I think you have to conclude that it did…"

    Then comes the one sentence Matt wrote that annoyed me:

    "Democrats… didn’t wildly outperform the polls or anything. But they did outperform the vibes…. "

    In Matt’s expressed view, the “vibes” consist of (a) the history of in-party midterm performances, (b) the belief that Biden is unpopular and that the election would be a referendum on Biden, and (c) skepticism that pollsters know how to obtain a sample. But (a) and (b) are things that work through the polls—not reasons to disbelieve them. And (c) was, as I said, a possibility, not a likelihood. But I think he suppresses the most important part of “vibes”: the media echo-chamber as generated by those who do not crunch numbers or read reports or think for themselves but who instead traffic in their “access”. That was, mostly, where the vibes were coming from. And there is no reason to believe in what you get from access journalism—after all, were Jared and Ivanka really horrified by what the Trump presidency was doing, and trying to save us all?

    But this is more-than-balanced by the best line in the piece—the one that made me laugh out loud:

    "Democrats outperformed a factional battle in which both moderates and progressives spent Tuesday morning “explaining” why Democrats did so badly (it was the other faction’s fault) only to need to pivot once the results came in…. "

    And so he reaches his main conclusion:

    "People don’t like having their rights taken away…. A critical swathe of the public prefers not to be represented in office by kooks and insurrectionists…. While there was polling error in 2022 , it was random and uncorrelated, which is how it’s supposed to work. I didn’t believe the polls could possibly be right, because they suggested Democrats would do amazingly well in historical context, which felt impossible given that Biden isn’t super-popular. But I was wrong…"

  17. Someone clue me in? What party do the rest of the colors signify? I know red and blue are R and D, and gold or yellow is for the Libs. After that, I’m lost.:

  18. This just in from Cracker Palace:

    If a reckoning is coming, it doesn’t seem likely to sink in with the man many Republicans blame for Tuesday’s debacle: Trump.

    In an interview before polls closed on Tuesday, he made this remarkable observation: “Well, I think if they win, I should get all the credit, and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all.”

    A day later, the 45th president was reportedly blaming his wife for suggesting he endorse Mehmet Oz — all while taking ALL CAPS swings on social media at the Republicans he argued should have hugged him more tightly.

    Assessing the outcome on Truth Social, he wrote, “While in certain ways yesterday’s election was somewhat disappointing, from my personal standpoint it was a very big victory.

    I suspect he thinks yesterday's losses will convince Republicans that only HE can save the party and win.  His delusions are getting worse.

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