Republicans, Americans Want Different Things

New polling data released today by Quinnipiac University crystallizes the problem Republicans face in 2022 (and 2024). From a Quinnipiac press release:

As candidates begin to enter races for the 2022 mid-term elections, more than 8 in 10 Republicans (85 percent) say they would prefer to see candidates running for elected office that mostly agree with Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of adults released today. Overall, a majority of Americans (53 – 39 percent) say they would prefer to see candidates running for elected office that mostly disagree with Trump.

Asked whether they would like to see Trump run for president in 2024, Republicans say 66 – 30 percent they would. Overall, two-thirds of Americans (66 – 30 percent) say they do not want to see him run.

As Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy notes:

“The numbers fly in the face of any predictions that Donald Trump’s political future is in decline. By a substantial majority, Republicans: (1) believe the election was stolen from him, (2) want Trump to run again, and (3), if they can’t vote for Trump, prefer someone who agrees with him.”

These poll numbers are certainly good news for Donald Trump, but not so much for the Republican Party in general. Republicans overwhelmingly say they want to see a continuation of Trumpism in 2022, but the majority of everyone else is horrified at this thought. In short, this means that Republicans are more likely to nominate extremist candidates for office in 2022 who are not well-equipped to appeal to voters in a General Election.

This same trend is even more apparent when looking ahead to 2024:

Asked whether they would like to see Trump run for president in 2024, Republicans say 66 – 30 percent they would. Overall, two-thirds of Americans (66 – 30 percent) say they do not want to see him run.

Two-thirds of Americans DO NOT WANT MORE TRUMP. Yet here in Colorado, recently-elected State GOP Chair Kristi Burton Brown says that the Republican Party is “never” going back to the pre-Trump days.

Republicans have made it clear that they are determined to give America more of what it doesn’t want. This is not a political strategy that we would ever suggest, but what do we know?

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  1. JohnInDenver says:

    And yet …. Republicans have FOR YEARS been able to elect candidates who do not reflect public opinion on abortion limitations, environmental positions, gun control, health insurance, taxes, and a host of other topics. 

    Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, after studying "a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues," concluded:

    when a majority—even a very large majority—of the public favors change, it is not likely to get what itwants. In our 1,779 policy cases, narrow pro-change majorities of the public got the policy changes they wantedonly about 30 percent of the time. More strikingly, even overwhelmingly large pro-change majorities, with 80 percent of the public favoring a policy change, got that change only about 43 percent of the time.

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