Democrat Jason Crow released his first General Election ad today in his bid to unseat Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) in CO-6. Take a gander:
Now, let’s go back in time to August 4, 2014 and the first General Election television ad from Democratic candidate Andrew Romanoff, which featured the former Colorado Speaker of the House walking in an empty field and talking to the camera about balancing budgets. This was Romanoff’s introductory TV spot in his bid to unseat Coffman:
One of these ads strikes an emotional cord and sets up a strong narrative for the campaign entering the final months of the election; the other ad superimposes graphs on the screen.
Romanoff didn’t lose to Coffman in 2014 because of this ad, just as Crow isn’t going to win or lose in 2018 because of his first TV spot. But the stark difference in tone and emotion here demonstrates why Crow continues to gain momentum in his bid for Congress.
Crow’s background as an Army Ranger counteracts Coffman’s own military history, which he has long used as a bludgeon to clear a path on any important issue. This is certainly a problem for Coffman, but what should really worry the incumbent Republican and his campaign are the images of Crow with his family. Crow is a former Army Ranger from a working class background with a telegenic young family. Coffman is a former Marine who has been in elected office for 30 years, and his signature image revolves around a strange obsession with doing push-ups in public.
Coffman has demonstrated a remarkable resilience in multiple high-profile campaigns, from statewide office to Congress, but 2018 looks to be the toughest re-election fight in his long career. This 30-second ad from his Democratic opponent is the reason why.
Morgan Carroll's First Ad Shows Why This Race For CD-6 Is Different
Andrew Romanoff's First Ad Shows Why This Race For CD-6 Is Different
Joe Micklosi's First Ad Shows Why This Race For CD-6 Is Different
I can't wait to hear this again in 2020….
Hey, by 2020, Colorado will have a Dem Trifecta, at least a US House majority (whether CD6 flips or not), and will be gunning for Gardner and Benedict Donald. Like you, I'm looking forward to 2020.
To 2020, MAGAt!
What pols actually wrote:
"Morgan Carroll Goes On The Air"
"Romanoff Waxes Centrist In First TV Spot"
"Joe Miklosi Last of Challengers to Hit Airwaves"
For anyone who does not know, almost any search engine can search a public site like ColoradoPols using 'site:' with the domain to be searched. To find the post on Miklosi I used 'site:coloradopols.com Joe Micklosi first ad'. It was the first result on duckduckgo.
There you go. Trying to use facts on Nutter.
The thing that disappoints me most about Moderatus is that he's so bad at putting forward his points. If he had said, "Pols reduced to saying, 'but this time it will be different,'" he would have been correct.
Now I am going to actually watch the ad so that I can see if my guess that it is going to be the same unimpressive talking points that anyone with a military uniform runs when campaigning for office.
It was perfectly competent, but nothing new for someone who has seen more than two cycles of political ads. He did not trip himself up and he may have insulated himself from some attacks, but Crow did not prove that he will win with this ad.
The race is exactly the same as the last few ones with a change in the political environment. If Crow had been running in '12, '14, or '16 he would have lost just the same. The problem the last few times was not bad candidates with bad campaigns, just that Coffman had incumbency and did not have as big of an anti-Republican sentiment to overcome.
My headline for the post about ad would have been, "Crow Hits the Right Tone for a Competent Campaign".
The prognosticators like Cook and 538 are calling this race “lean D” while the polls and demographics are calling it “toss-up”.
Fair. And I mostly agree with you, though, I think a stronger candidate could have defeated Coffman in 2012. Miklosi never really had the momentum and I recall Pols being very bearish on him. Coffman was mostly in a new district and the "Not an American" gaffe could have been used to better effect by a candidate that had better instincts to run a tough race. Otherwise, yeah.
As far as Moldy goes, it's hard to actually make good points when you're stupid, either naturally or by choice.
You may be right about Miklosi in '12. I am not as sure of him being an average/good candidate. And Obama was moderately popular, that could have put another candidate over the top. Though I think it would have taken someone with the sort of charm that would then have such a candidate eyeing Senate races to be followed up by possible Presidential runs.
I haven't seen Crow's first ad. However, I have seen the anti-Crow ad slamming him for missing meetings of the veterans' board he was srrving on and thus "hurting vets." Now, I don't believe meeting attendance hurts or doesn't hurt vets. Still, it is an effective ad for the uninformed.
This is what I am talking about when I lament the lack of good points being made by Moderatus. That is a solidly critical comment with actual facts to back it up.
I would be interested to hear if you think that the feel goodness of the Crow introduction ad does anything to blunt the attack ad. I was not aware of the attack ad since I stopped watching anything but PBS back in '12 since all ads annoy the hell out of me.
If we haven't recorded the show we're watching and can't fast forward past the ads, we use the mute button to just ignore them 😉
Going to be a weird season for people who are concerned about politicians missing meetings — cognitive dissonance will emerge.
They will learn in these early days that Crow missed some veterans' board and Stapleton missed PERA meetings.
CHB – I see those Coffman ads attacking Crow whenever I check the local news channels. I'm afraid they might be effective.
Coffman's issue committee hacks are utterly unscrupulous – they implied Morgan Carroll was an out of touch Washington lawyer in league with ISIS- and they got away with it because Dems stick to the truth.
I'd really like to see Crow ads attacking Coffman for "overseeing" the VA hospital construction for 6 years in Congress, while doing almost nothing to stop the waste and runaway contract costs. Instead, he used his position to undermine the hospital unions. And now he's taking credit for "unbungling" the VA hospital debacle. The Post is happy to provide his forum.
Perhaps the Pear can provide some fodder for Coffman attack ads?
IIRC, Miklosi exceeded expectations which the candidates in '14 and '16 fell short of what was expected from them.
I was hosting some friends last night for pizza and fixin's. Did not have the TV on. So, have still not seen the Crow ad.
Moderatus does have a point. Pols, and the left leaning here, has predicted doom and demise for Coffman the past few elections. How is this year any different?
I don’t live in the 6th District, so the election there is not a big thing. I will point out that if Coffman joins Scott Tipton in supporting re-authorization of, and full funding for, the Land & Water Conservation Fund (LWCF), that will be a big point for Coffman in my mind. Bennet and Gardner have jointly introduced a Senate bill for the LWCF.
This cycle is different because of the larger dislike of Republicans. Also, there is a good case to be made that incumbency is not as powerful an advantage as it once was.
I'll put up a long post with links soon.
I think Coffman had been insulated by having President Obama and the assumption that in 2016, Hillary would be elected, and she carried his district. He could run as a check on Presidential power. He doesn't have that luxury now.
Here's the search text of hundreds of pages of Nutter marking his words:
A compilation of the Wit and Wisdom of a Brain-Dead Little Troll.
In order to just get his comments (if you need to search them for particularly wrong predictions or something) use an exact string search. Put quotes around this phrase "Moderatus says:". That way you do not end up with comment threads where people are just talking about him instead of ones where he actually posted.
This of course works for all posters here. Hopefully I won't be bemused by the wrongness of my own comments in three or four years.
Probably not. Unlike Nutter, you're not stupid.
…being *centrist* with a bunch of Sociopathic, Anti-democratic Liars?
Imagine if………oh, never mind.
I hope that the Crow campaign does more than just focus on Crow's military history. That's fine for an intro ad, but it should really emphasize what he's done for veterans, since Coffman is swift-boating him on this issue.
It should also attack Coffman's do-little record while he was supposed to be overseeing the VA hospitals on his various congressional oversight committee chairmanships.