Crowmentum!

The website 538.com is out with a new list of predictions for all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Take a look at what 538.com’s magic eight ball thinks of Colorado’s perennial battleground seat in CO-6, where incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) is trying to fend off Democratic challenger Jason Crow:

From 538.com

Before we go any further with our analysis here, it’s important to understand the significance of this rating. As far as we can tell (and as far back as our tiny brains can recall), CO-6 has never been rated as anything more competitive than a pure Toss Up seat for Democrats. This would certainly be true prior to redistricting changes in 2012, since the old boundaries of the district (formerly represented by Republican Tom Tancredo) made the seat completely safe for the GOP.

In 2012, the General Election matchup between Coffman and Democrat Joe Miklosi was rated “Leaning Republican” by the New York Times.

In 2014, the race between Coffman and Democrat Andrew Romanoff was labeled a “Toss Up” by prognosticators like the Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

In 2016, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball considered CO-6 to be a “Toss Up,” while others like “Rothenberg & Gonzales” marked it down as “Tilt Republican.”

Rep. Mike Coffman (left) and challenger Jason Crow

The pundits are diverging more in 2018, with Cook and Sabato calling CO-6 a “Toss Up,” and Inside Elections labeling the race “Tilt Republican.” It would be tempting to call the 538.com ranking more of an anomaly if not for several other numbers supporting a bullish outlook for Democrats in CO-6:

♦ Polling results in late February showed Crow with a hypothetical 44-39 lead over Coffman. As we noted at the time, this marked the first public poll showing anyone leading Coffman since he was first elected to Congress in 2008.

♦ Crow has been outperforming Coffman in recent fundraising reports with some eye-popping numbers. Crow raised more than $1 million in the last reported fundraising quarter — 95% of which came from individual donors. By comparison, Coffman raised a little more than $632,000 between April and June.

♦ According to the latest polling results measuring the “generic Congressional ballot,” Democrats have surged to a 52-41 lead over Republicans. Recent election results across the country bear this out; the results of a special Congressional election in Ohio last Tuesday are still too close to call in a district that the Republican candidate won by 36 points in 2016.

♦ Coffman’s full embrace of President Trump isn’t likely to sit well with voters in a district that Hillary Clinton actually carried comfortably in 2016.

Based on prior election victories, we still give Coffman a slight advantage in 2018 (after all, Coffman has been in elected office for 30 years now, so he’s doing something right). But we dare say that the “Crowmentum” appears to be very real indeed.

39 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. DENependent says:

    Democrats are consistently up in generic congressional polls. However, we still more than two months out and most people won't start paying attention until sometime in October. The FiveThirtyEight average has been as low as 44-40 as recently as May 22.

    If I lived out in the burbs I would be voting for Crow, but I am not that excited about him or the possibility that he will win.

    • ModeratusModeratus says:

      This is the proper attitude. Crowmentum? How about Morganmentum and Romentum? Miklosimentum?

      This seat is out of reach for Democrats. Time to admit it and move on.

      • unnamed says:

        Yeah.  Let's all take advice from the guy who does not know that 44 < 50

        Btw, what do you think about Coffman helping that couple keep their adopted Peruvian daughter from getting deported?

        Also, what is a real American?  Someone that thinks like you?  If they don't think like you, like a MAGAt, they don't count?

      • PseudonymousPseudonymous says:

        Also from The Prophecies of Modstradamus:

        You think you're so smart but you're too clever by half. It's true that Carson has been campaigning hard in CO, but the real story is Marco Rubio AHEAD of Trump and closing fast on Carson. Mark my words, as the primary moves out of silly season, Rubio is the candidate to watch.

        Total distraction. Gessler is the only Republican who can win, and he will win the primary.

        In two weeks we'll be having a very different conversation.

        Steve House is incompetent and posting his nonsense doesn't help anyone. Trump will never be the nominee. #nevertrump

        [Coffman is] the next Governor of Colorado. Save this post for Election Day 2018, I'll be back to gloat!!!!!!!!!!!

      • spaceman65 says:

        No, you great fucktard, it is not out of reach.  It's a tough get, but one worth fighting for.  Of course, your prescience took a big hit when you went all in for not-the-next-gov. Cynthia Coffman (not known as such on the attorney rolls, though).  If the Dems pick it up, will you then agree to eat Crow?  Hope your day sucks as much as you do

         

      • DENependent says:

        Out of reach is too far in the other direction. Coffman has never been an inspiring politician with loads of personal popularity. He very slightly outperforms the partisan lean of his district in the past, exactly in line with the advantages of incumbency. He's no push over, but he's also no political genius who can get people who disagree with him to like him personally.

        It also is a misreading of what I wrote. I am not excited. I am not skeptical of Crow winning either. I do not feel strongly about either candidate in terms of electoral strength.

        • unnamed says:

          Dude.  You're trying reasoned and sober analysis with someone who is, hands down, the stupidest person on this site.

          I agree with what you wrote right there, but I also have a functioning brain.

          • DENependent says:

            Like the scorpion I do what it is in my nature to do. When I write about politics I do the reasoned and sober thing because I like it, not because I think it will change another person.

            I doubt calling Moderatus names or dispassionate writing will change if he posts or not, his opinions, or the color of one hair upon his head. He certainly keeps coming back despite everything other posters have thrown at him (I have been reading far longer than I have posted). 

            The owners of this site have chosen to allow him to post here and so I can either choose to lobby them to get rid of the noise machine or to use some of his posts as a jumping off point for a topic I wish to write about. For now I choose option B.

            • unnamed says:

              Fair point.   I usually do that too, at least with someone I can match wits with.  But nutlid couldn't be a better strawman if he tried.  So, I will have fun rattling his cage.  Also, it's easy as can be.  🙂

              • VoyageurVoyageur says:

                Fluffy will never be accused of cheating on his IQ test.  But at least his opinions are his own.   Carnholio was a pure slimeball shill with no honor at all.  I was very glad when he took his commie-loving soul elsewhere.

    • Gilpin Guy says:

      GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV

      In our little county, we had six teams out canvassing for Tammy Story and local candidates August 11th.  I've been involved in the county party since 2002 and have never seen this many volunteers showing up in August for door knocking and conversations.  Unprecedented and we're just a tiny county.  You can also call it Yeswecanmentum.  There's a real hunger to register voters and get out the vote for the November general.

      • DENependent says:

        That could make all the difference for Democrats. I am not a Democrat.

        I always vote and I will always vote, but I am not suited to being involved in politics. I will sit on the sideline and watch with a side of analysis.

      • The realistThe realist says:

        Agree. I know of another mountain county that is doing more canvassing, earlier, than they've ever done as a county party in previous years – presidential or non-presidential. Can hardly wait for GOTV time!

    • JohnInDenver says:

      Uh, no, Democrats don't consistently lead in the generic vote. Check out https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

       

  2. itlduso says:

    Of course, the failing Denver Post is doing its best to help Coffman.  Today's front page has a picture of Coffin with a mother who's 4 year old adopted daughter was to be deported, but for the intervention of Coffin.  And, he's even paying the $1,000 in fees!  Now, that's an effective media buy!

  3. itlduso says:

    Just attended a Jason Crow neighborhood meeting last night.  Turnout was amazing, reminiscent of 2008.

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