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July 02, 2024 10:41 AM UTC

The Big Line: Updated for General Election

  • 7 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

We’ve updated The Big Line now that the Primary Election is behind us.

Much of the action in Colorado in 2024 was on the Republican Primary side, so there’s not a whole lot to really debate about November. The only truly competitive race for Congress is in CO-08, where we have incumbent Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo starting out with a big advantage over Republican Gabe-ish Evans. While Evans easily dispatched Republican Janak Joshi in last week’s Primary Election, he was forced to move further to the right and to embrace an endorsement from Donald Trump in the process — neither of which is going to help him with average voters in the fall. Caraveo, meanwhile, has built up an impressive warchest while waiting to see who she would face in November.

What say you, Polsters? Where do we have it wrong?

Comments

7 thoughts on “The Big Line: Updated for General Election

  1. Yadira Caraveo 60%

    Gabish Evans 34%

    Libertarian & Others 6% 

    Gabe Evans could transform into an Eagle while shooting Ar15s screaming Trump, it doesn't matter, he doesn't code correctly. He opens his mouth and it's a mess. His stance is as wide and toe tappy as a Minnesota Congressman. He will hemorrhage right wing voters while alienating independent voters. I think he will get a serious look from independent voters but he's so off code, off brand, just off…  

    1. But didn't Dave Williams negotiate a non-aggression pact with the Libertarians in exchange for not letting Barbara Kirkmeyer run again in CD-8? 

      What happened to that arrangement?

    1. He's following Lloyd Doggett, the incumbent Dem US Rep in Texas who called for Biden to step aside earlier today.

    2. It's a smart move in the 3rd. Biden's days are, or should be numbered, for one thing. A moderate Dem needs to show he doesn't wait for the party to tell him what to think/say.

  2. Why I'm dubious of all the hysteria over democracy facing an existential threat …..

    Yes, it makes for good news coverage on the left-wing media outlets. And yes, it's great for fundraising. But let's look at how serious the so-called threat actually is.

    In France, which had the experience of the Vichy government in the early 1940's, the middle and the left have coalesced to try to stop the far right from taking power in next week's parliamentary elections.

    But here, while we talk about the "threat to democracy" our actions make clear that it is little more than a talking point.

    1.   If democracy was truly at risk, why are people flirting with the spoiler candidates who are polling at an aggregate of 10% or more?

    In fact, why are the spoiler candidates still in the race. Take a cue from what the French are doing and clear the field.

    2.   If democracy was truly at risk, why is the middle and the left sleepwalking into the election with a cognitively impaired candidate at the top of the ticket?

    The White House initially said he had a cold. (It brought back memories of the early '80's when the Kremlin routinely put out statements that Brezhnev, Andropov, and Chernenko each in turn had a “cold” only to follow up months later with an obituary.) When that didn't fly, they said it was from all the recent international travel. (He spent the week leading up to the debate at Camp David.)

    3.   If democracy was truly at risk, wouldn't everyone be called upon to do his/her/their part to protect democracy even if it meant putting aside personal preferences and wishes? There is one potential candidate who polls significantly better than Trump. (I know, a poll three and half months out is virtually meaningless but what other metric do we have?) But she – who currently beats Trump by 11% – refuses to soil her hands.

    Michelle Obama only Democrat to best Donald Trump post debate (thehill.com)

    Would Michelle Obama still be polling 11% ahead of Trump after announcing her candidacy. Absolutely not. Her popularity would take a hit. But might she hold on to enough of that support to pull off a win. Absolutely possible. 

    Would Michelle Obama unit the middle and the left?  Yes.

    Does she satisfy the identity politics crowd? Yes, she checks off two boxes.

    Would her candidacy bring enthusiasm to the Democratic ticket?  Absolutely.

    Could she raise the vast amount of money needed to run the race?  Well, yes. She has her husband's Rolodex.

    But as existential as they tell us this election is, she can't be bothered.

     

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