August 28, 2022 01:45 PM UTC

Dano's 2022 predictions

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• by: Dano

It’s been a few years since I’ve done this so let’s give it a whirl:

Dems should have no problems with the top 5 statewide seats

US Senate – Bennet

Govenor – Polis

Sec of State – Griswold

Atty General – Weiser

Treasurer – Young

CD1 – Degette (D)

CD2 – Neguse (D)

CD3 – Boebert (R) – If I miss any of these, I hope it’s this one

CD4 – Buck (R)

CD5 – Lamborn (R)

CD6 – Crow (D)

CD7 – Petterson (D)

CD8 – Caraveo (D) – Only one that is not a given, I’m banking on the Libs pulling son GOP votes

State Senate:

SD1 – Pelton (R) (no Dem running)

SD3 – Hinrichsen (D) – now a swing district, but incumbency and minor R scandal should keep him in place

SD4 – Baisley (R) safe R seat, as are the next few

SD7 – Rich (R)

SD8 – Solomon (R)

SD9 – Lundeen (R)

SD11 – Exum (D) – pick-up for the D’s – this seat is very swing with a slight D lean. Hisey’s residential issues are just enough to tip the balance.

SD15 – Woodward (R) – most competitive district in the state, I’ll lean in favor of incumbency

SD20 – Cutter (D) – safe D (as are the next few)

SD22 – Danielson (D)

SD24 – Mullica (D)

SD25 – Winter (D) – this is a D pick up

SD27 – Sullivan (D) – a little competitive with a slight D lean

SD30 – Van Winkle (R) (the rest of the SDs are safe for the parties listed)

SD32 – Rodriguez (D)

SD34 – Gonzalez (D) – not even an R running (but there is an Approval Voting Party person)

SD35 – Pelton (R)

For House I’m only listing the interesting ones by name:

HD1-12 – solid Dem

HD13 – McCluskie (D) – Lean D district – Lib in race will drain off a few GOP

HD14-15 – solid Rep

HD16 – Donelson (R) – slight lean R, it’s the Springs so I’ll err on the side of the GOP

HD17 –  D is only one running

HD18 –  Snyder (D) – very slight D lean and open seat, only picking D because the incumbent is D

HD19 – Woog (R) – same as 18 but GOP instead of Dem

HD20-22 – safe R

HD23-24 – safe D

HD25 – Larson (R) – open seat with slight R lean, but enough – GOP pick-up

HD26 – Lukens (D) open seat but lean is a little more for Ds than 25 was for Rs

HD27 – safe D

HD28 – Emm (D) open seat with just enough lean for Ds to keep it

HD29-37 – safe D

HD38 – Ortiz (D) – kind of competitive, but incumbency has its advantages

HD39 – safe R

HD40-42 – Safe D

HD43-45 – safe R

HD46 – Mauro (D) – fairly strong D (but that’s fading)

HD47-48 – safe R

HD49-50 – safe D

HD51 – safe R

HD52-53 – safe D

HD54-56 – safe R

HD59 – McLachlan (D) – leans D, incumbency should take him rest of the way

HD60 – safe R

HD61 – Hamrick (D) – very competitive – I’m going with the slightly better name recognition

HD62 – safe D

HD63-65 – safe R

So, if I’m right that would be 1 D pick-up in the Senate and 1 GOP pick-up in the House. Neither is earth-shattering