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RGA: Colorado Not In "Best Case Scenario" in 2010

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 10:13:22 AM MDT

(Many commenters have been (rightly) confused as to why this map includes states in 2010 that are not even in play. See the update below. - promoted by Colorado Pols)

UPDATE: This map is part of a presentation created by the RGA earlier this year called The Four Year Plan. It's possible the map below is mislabeled and should say "Best Case 2012," but the message is the same either way: Colorado would still have a Democratic Governor under the best case scenario laid-out by the RGA.

We've found it a little curious that the Colorado Governor's race is rarely listed among the top 10 most likely to switch parties nationally, but perhaps there's good reason for that. Check out this image from a presentation made recently by the Republican Governor's Association (RGA), which maps out a state-by-state "Best Case Scenario":

So what does this mean? Well, it means that polling doesn't look favorably on Republican chances to retake the governor's office in Colorado, and more importantly, it means that the RGA isn't likely to spend a lot of national money helping Republicans to defeat Democrat Bill Ritter in 2010.

In other words, Scott McInnis and Josh Penry, good luck...but you're on your own.

Colorado Pols :: RGA: Colorado Not In "Best Case Scenario" in 2010

Tags: bill ritter, josh penry, scott mcinnis, marc holtzman, (All Tags)

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RGA: Colorado Not In "Best Case Scenario" in 2010 | 37 comments

Here's the current map

If the GOP best-case comes true it would be a net pickup of 16 states.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:21:13 PM UTC

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Obviously the best case is a pipe dream

But what's interesting is that even in their wildest dreams, they don't see Colorado as a pickup.

by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:41:44 PM UTC

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They're going to lose Hawaii

Linda Lingle was due to a perfect storm and her 8 years in office has not improved things for the Repubs there. On the Dem side you have Neil Abercrombie who is really well liked throughout the state and has held one of the 2 congressional seats there forever.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 04:24:36 AM UTC

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Time to institute drug testing at the RNC: WA doesn't even have a governor's race in 2010. Gregoire was re-elected in 2008.

by: kathrynp @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:49:20 PM UTC

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LOL!

True, and IIRC there are about 16 or so more states that run gubernatorial elections with the presidential. Some of them must also show as switching from Dem to 'pub on that map.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

by: Aristotle @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:55:12 PM UTC

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This map

Makes absolutely no sense.

Washington doesn't have a Governor's race in '10. Nor does Montana. Nor North Carolina. Nor Missouri. Nor Delaware. All are Dem held right now.

Wow. Shoddy work.

Projection-wise, as well, this means they think that Ritter is less vulnerable than an open Governor's race in Hawaii (the 2nd most Dem state in the country), Rhode Island (the 3rd), or Nevada (where their Governor is going through a nasty divorce and his Lt. Gov has been indicted).

Color me confused.

by: adam.kretz @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:52:23 PM UTC

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They're going to use magic

they have the best wizards on the case.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:56:53 PM UTC

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oh my goodness

I can't believe they let their logo get imprinted on this amateur hour piece of work! The Republican Governors Association doesn't even know what governor seats are/aren't up. That doesn't leave anyone with the sense they have a grasp of their core mission.

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche

by: twas brillig @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:28:23 PM UTC

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Where's Canada ?

There's a real good chance a lot of the provinces will swing republican in 2010 as well.

" The webinar is free, however, there are only 250 spaces available "

Some douche

by: Fidel's dirt nap @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:52:36 PM UTC

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Canada?

Those b******s killed Kenny.

And do they even get to vote?

by: MADCO @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:42:07 PM UTC

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No national money

may be the reason for Wadhams pimping Scooty. Penry has been on the public dole, in one way or another, his entire adult life. Scooty is sitting on that pile of cash which may ease Wadhams' sleepless nights worrying about pecuniary obligations.

by: WesternSlopeThought @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:56:47 PM UTC

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McInnis' dough

is in a Federal account. He cannot legally use those funds in a state campaign.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:58:19 PM UTC

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Lobbyist $ n/t

by: WesternSlopeThought @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:21:53 PM UTC

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McInnis

is such ridiculously old news. Apart from Colorado Pols readers and the odd political reporter or two, no one else knows he exists anymore.

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche

by: twas brillig @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:29:52 PM UTC

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Given the fact that this map is so stupid

I would discount it completely, and I don't view it as an accurate indicator as to where they will or won't spend money.

Those judgements are typically made once the primaries are settled and the candidates are sized up. Sometimes it is done before hand, but there isn't even an announced candidate for our side.

In short, this seems more like a Pols pipe dream.

by: Haners @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:01:07 PM UTC

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But Haners

it has to at least worry you a little bit that the RGA doesn't even know which seats are up for re-election.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:02:49 PM UTC

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That's the thing

This map is so stupid, I have a hard time believing that it was actually lifted from the RGA website. Where is the link that shows it there? Usually this is included in such assertions. If this wasn't directly from their website, I would discount it entirely.

Aside from the states that don't even hold elections, it is listing states that just don't make any sense. Why is New Jersey blue? Corzine has been trailing there for months.

by: Haners @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:14:20 PM UTC

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good point

Link, please, Pols.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

by: Aristotle @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:56:39 PM UTC

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It's not from a website

This was part of a presentation given by the RGA to, presumably, top GOP operatives and gubernatorial campaigns. See the update above.

by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:04:21 PM UTC

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talk about the generals fighting the last war!

by: One Queer Dude @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:22:24 PM UTC

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I also noticed its called the Four Year Plan

Funny, being such ardent defenders against communism and all that the republicans are. Has Hu Jintao signed off on it ?

" The webinar is free, however, there are only 250 spaces available "

Some douche

by: Fidel's dirt nap @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:58:38 PM UTC

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Who gave the presentation?

I mean seriously, I would be questioning your source at this point

Sorry Pols, but since the source isn't entirely....solid, your anaylisis is even less so. Ever consider the possibility that the information was "leaked" as a form of misdirection? Or to out someone else or make someone look stupid? I am genuinely surprised that you all have put any stock in this.

by: Haners @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:27:51 PM UTC

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where all know where you're going with this.....

...you're going to accuse Bill Clinton of being responsible for this!

by: One Queer Dude @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:30:03 PM UTC

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no map- but

http://www.rga.org/index.php?o...

Which seems like the RGA at least the number of elections right there. Even if their map is a little optimistic.

http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/G...

by: MADCO @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:50:51 PM UTC

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Big Hole in your argument

The above map that is supposedly from the RGA lists New Jersey as being blue. But the link you gave me which is from the RGA website shows that New Jersey is a prime pick up opportunity.

According to Pols' flawed assumption that the above map is a good indicator, the RGA isn't planning on spending money on oen of their prime pick up opportunities.

Pols' information is flawed, just like their conclusion. It is wishful thinking on their part.

by: Haners @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 22:12:35 PM UTC

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Uh, guys...

this map came out last year...before the election. The RGA isn't confused about what seats are up for reelection in 2010.

by: Dabee47 @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:51:36 PM UTC

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So in other words...

This is completely useless on just about every level

by: Haners @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:02:37 PM UTC

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Buzzkill

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:58:04 PM UTC

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See Update in post

by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:04:52 PM UTC

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You're still are kinda off...

The existence of the map itself is talked about in a Sept 08 article here. http://www.stateline.org/live/...

So, no; not from "earlier this year."

One other thing, if repubs are too dumb to put together a coherent map, why would you trust their assumption that CO will stay blue in 2010?

I'm just sayin... :)

by: Dabee47 @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 00:20:19 AM UTC

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BINGO

As usual Pols trying to claim insider GOP info when in reality...they're just pulling it out of the asses 99.999% of the time.

When is the last time that either the RGA or the DGA did any significant media buys in Colorado? Comparing the RGA/DGA to the RNCCC/DNCCC or RNSC/DNSC is apples and oranges.

Nor does the map mean much in an electoral environment that is changing week to week. NOBODY has any idea who will be spending money ANYWHERE in 18 months. Except Nostradamus and Coloradopols.

by: monumentman @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:21:32 PM UTC

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You forgot to end your post

with an "Arrrr, matey!"

"At times one remains faithful to a cause only because its opponents do not cease to be insipid." - Nietzsche

by: twas brillig @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 03:15:26 AM UTC

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Grass roots still alive

New homemade sign has popped up on I-25: WHY DOES RITTER HATE EL PASO CTY?

Made me think, RITTER? Hell, why do El Paso County VOTERS hate El Paso County?

by: Walter Mitty @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:02:40 PM UTC

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Because they have to live there ?

" The webinar is free, however, there are only 250 spaces available "

Some douche

by: Fidel's dirt nap @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 20:38:11 PM UTC

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doesn't Montana hold its gubernatorial elections in presidential years?

And Missouri and Washington state DO hold their gubernatorial races in presidential years because Christine Gregory and Jay Nixon were just elected last Nov. How are those two going to change from blue to red in '10?

by: One Queer Dude @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 20:28:00 PM UTC

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Penry will get the nom

The stupid Republicans are too blind to see McInnis would do better against Ritter and Penry is ONLY liked in the party. McInnis at least has some room to grow (at least more then Penry)

by: A-bob @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 22:59:57 PM UTC

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Cook Report

If you're looking for an accurate assessment of the race from a respected pundit, check out Charlie Cook. He puts it at leans Dem. Ritter is still a favorite, though declining by the day, and one of the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat Governors.

by: Karate Kid @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 23:48:45 PM UTC

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RGA: Colorado Not In "Best Case Scenario" in 2010 | 37 comments