GOP State House Candidates--Slow Fizzle Begins?

Ah don't worry about Kefalas

That districts' 2008 performance was likely 70-80%.

Its tough for some of you to deal with Christian pro-lifers like Palin and Kefalas.

It is impossible to know what Palin and Kefalas really believe about God, but having been raised in conservative churches, they are fluent in church language, doctrine and culture.

All politics is local and with the GOP organizing in home and church basements maybe you should be concerned about Ms Kottwitz. It would be interesting to she what positive leadership she's provided to the local residents.

I'm sure you can find many more spin opportunities, but the Christian soldiers marching to the ballot box just might pull the Kottwitz lever in response to the Obama inspired and corporate bailout backed Kafalas.

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by: Libertad @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 14:34:27 PM UTC

You're kind of missing the point here, Libertad

Kottwitz can't win the election if she doesn't actually run.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 16:33:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just like the Dem US Senate nominee in SC ;)

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by: Libertad @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 05:31:44 AM UTC

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Kefalas is pro-choice...

what are you smoking (do you have a script for it?) and what does Palin have to do with this?  Is Kottwitz single and pregnant?  That would be a possible Palin tie-in....other than that, I'm at a loss...

"But when I see a 9-11 victim family on television, or whatever, I'm just like, 'Oh, shut up!' I'm so sick of them because they're always complaining."  Glenn Beck  

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by: Arvadonian @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 16:58:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As the prior two comments show...

... L's comment here is unusually stupid, even by his own low standards. Care to explain WTF you're talking about, L?

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."

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by: raymond1 @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 19:35:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More Libertad Non Sequitur Action

Holy cow.......

Huh?  

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

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by: parsingreality @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 20:36:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Crackpot Conti and now this

Joe Rice's opponent is theorizing about terrorist treehouses out in the woods, and this candidate can't even show up for the job she does have?  

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by: Kiltartan Cross @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 15:42:11 PM UTC

Wow, Larimer County's next major player

is fading faster than I can type her name. I remember when Kottwitz ran for Ft Collins City Council last year and was supposed to be a rising star in the party, clearly being positioned to move up to take on Kefalas in HD52. I love her response to the Coloradoan's request for confirmation on her running for office or not.

"I will make sure you are informed when either decision I make is formalized," Kottwitz said in response to a Coloradoan question about whether she planned to run in the fall.

Uh, somebody needs to let Mrs. Kottwitz know that the election is in four months, not four years. She might want to get to thinking about that a little harder.  

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

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by: Middle of the Road @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 16:28:47 PM UTC

This is part of a growing misconception

among the national media, and by extension people who watch the national media. A narrative has been written that the tea party candidate will automatically win in November against an incumbent because national polling shows anti-incumbent sentiment, anger with the way things are going, and the usual cyclical win for the party not currently in the White House.

Unfortunately for those bird's-eye-view prognosticators, they have managed to ignore one of the most important phrases (probably a cliche at this point) in electoral politics, and that is the fact that all politics is local. Here's how I apply that to the 2010 midterm elections:

1. You can't just run anybody against anybody and think that if they have the quality of not being the incumbent they will automatically win.

2. You have to run quality candidates against quality candidates. If you run a crappy candidate against someone who is even remotely good at their job, then you lower your chances of winning that particular race demonstrably.

3. You can't just run a "Tea Party" candidate in this climate and expect them to win automatically. Voters might be angry, but they're not going to vote for someone who says things that are in direct conflict with the values that the voters in a particular district hold (it's why I've been so confused by people falling all over themselves to be called tea partiers. That might work in the GOP US Senate primary but it's not going to work in a state house race where people are less concerned about ideology than whether or not the person knows about the issues that affect them.)

4. You certainly can't expect to win without running an all-out, 100% committed campaign.

Of course, I'm not really any smarter than the national prognosticators. My local prognostication might turn out to be completely wrong, but somehow I don't think so.

Bottom line: this might be a weird political year, but the basic rules of campaigning still apply. You can't ignore them and expect to win by default.

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 17:36:02 PM UTC

RSB you hit the nail squarely on the head

Voters aren't stupid and in the end they do consider the candidates and neither party can just run anybody. The voters have a sixth sense about who is and isn't a good politician.

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by: Republican 36 @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 18:08:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks R36

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 18:12:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Short version:

Voters might be angry, but they're not stupid.

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by: RedGreen @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 18:56:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I like yours better

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 19:00:03 PM UTC

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I disagree

For evidence I offer: The presidential election of 2004.  Also, electing reps and senators that have ideologies that only hurt the ordinary voter and favor our overlords, the corporations.  

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

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by: parsingreality @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 01:14:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I really thought that as well

then Alvin Greene happened.

WHT happened there?  Every interview I have seen has people admitting they "knew" people who voted for him and had no idea who he was.

Colorado, one of the lowest taxed states in one of the lowest taxed nations in the developed world.

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by: JeffcoDemo @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 21:22:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alvin Greene was selected

at the party level as the Democratic nominee in that race. He's actually the perfect example, and not an exception. He's just the Democratic counterexample to the numerous GOP/tea party examples.

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by: redstateblues @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 21:25:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So here's the deal on that one.

I live in the next district over (west side of Fort Collins) and was at the county assembly. Nobody had decided to run yet at the assembly, and a lot of people wanted Ray Martinez to run. He declined however, and my (libertarian) friend in the CSU math department (grad student) made a good speech and was considering running. If he had run, I think he could have had a chance at winning as he would have had a significant portion of the college vote - he's a popular guy with students. However, he realized that it just wasn't possible to do that with what he wanted to do in grad school, so he bowed out. The GOP however is trying to run someone in every district similar to what Dems did the last cycle, so they can pick up a few seats on fluke elections. Do I think she has any chance against Kefalas? No. But there are five months left to go before the election and I'm glad the GOP has someone on the ballot just in case.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

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by: bjwilson83 @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 18:01:59 PM UTC

That's an interesting perspecive

I think it has some merit IF the candidate actually campaigns. I'm sure a certain fraction of voters always vote against the incumbent, particularly so this year. But, to quote RSB above:

4. You certainly can't expect to win without running an all-out, 100% committed campaign.

Its just like Further, but with tax cuts! - Fidel's Dirt Nap

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by: ajb @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 18:36:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Basically just looking at the off chance of a major scandal or deal-breaker I guess.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle

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by: bjwilson83 @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 23:25:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alvin Greene of SC proves otherwise.......

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

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by: parsingreality @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 01:15:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again, see above

If Alvin Greene wins the general election, then I'll say you were right, but he's not going to. He's a perfect example of this. I wasn't talking about internal party politics, just general election races.

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by: redstateblues @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 15:37:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

you know better

Nobody cares about these races. It is a GOP year, we could nominate Mickey Mouse and get Rep. Mouse. You know it.

Way to pick on a working mother too.

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by: GOPwarrior @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 19:33:13 PM UTC

WTF?

What does her being a working mother have to do with it?  If you're suggesting that working moms can't be expected to show up for a majority of meetings they're scheduled to attend, or to put in effort to procure a serious job they've applied for, then no: I know a zillion working moms who (a) don't flake out on a majority of meetings they're supposed to attend, and (b) don't flake out on putting in effort to apply for an important job.

BTW, "warrior": any more hot intel on whom Sarah Palin is going to endorse?

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."

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by: raymond1 @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 19:39:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can she be a "working" mother

If she doesn't show up at work?

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 19:54:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another uber-rightie non sequitar

Actually, you might be partially correct.  It's obvious that a lot of Republican legislators have DNA in common with Mickey Mouse.  

"Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth." Paul Krugman, 9/2010

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by: parsingreality @ Wed Jun 23, 2010 at 01:17:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]