The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: August 15, 2019

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Any Democrat With a Pulse (60%)↑
Democrats trounced Republicans in Colorado in 2018. This is a “blue state” now.

(R) Donald Trump* (40%)↓
Trump couldn’t carry Colorado in 2016; there’s little reason to think 2020 will be better.

 


U.S. SENATE

(R) Cory Gardner* (50%)↓
Gardner appears to be running for re-election in 2020. Maybe he should actually spend some time in Colorado beforehand.

(D) John Hickenlooper (50%)↑
It sure looks like Hick is eyeing this seat; he’s the clear favorite if so.

(D) Mike Johnston* (15%)↓
Johnston is doing a good job raising money. His poll numbers are less impressive. Probably can’t survive a Hickenlooper candidacy.

(D) Andrew Romanoff* (10%)↓
Always seems to be (politically) in wrong place at wrong time, now here comes Hickenlooper.

(R) Steve Reams (10%)↑
Weld County Sheriff is making a whole lot of noise lately.

(D) John Walsh* (5%)↓
Former U.S. Attorney had good fundraising quarter in Q2 but still has a lot of ground to make up. Like Johnston, his candidacy probably can’t survive a Hickenlooper entry.

(D) Alice Madden (5%)↓
We explained her problems here.

(D) Dan Baer* (5%)↓
Baer was a long shot before it looked like Hickenlooper would run here.

(D) Angela Williams* (2%)
Denver State Senator officially joined the race in July. If the quality of her announcement video is any indication, this won’t end well.

(D) Lorena Garcia* (1%)↓
Community activist was first Democrat to formally announce bid for 2020, but she has no realistic chance.

(D) Trish Zornio* (1%)↓
The little-known Zornio has been running for this seat for nearly two years already. It’s probably time to do something else.

(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (0%)
Former CO-5 candidate is a longshot to even make the Primary ballot.

(D) Michelle Ferrigno Warren* (0%)
Who?

 

(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Perlmutter isn’t going to run if Hickenlooper is in the race.

(D) Joe Neguse (OFF)
Ditto Perlmutter above.

(D) Jena Griswold (OFF)
Colorado Secretary of State was eager to run but did not find enough of a reciprocal response. Announced she won’t be a candidate on August 9, 2019.

 


 

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (85%)↑
DeGette isn’t setting any fundraising records, but she doesn’t have to worry about that.

(D) Crisanta Duran* (15%)↓
Duran has performed about as poorly as DeGette could have hoped.

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)
Tipton represents a district that is very much suited to him. His comfortable re-election in an otherwise Democratic year should give him plenty of space.

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (20%)
If there was a time to beat Tipton, it was probably in 2018. Mitsch Bush thinks otherwise.

(D) Don Valdez* (10%)
Little-known state lawmaker from Southern Colorado officially joined race in late June.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck’s biggest concern is redistricting. And serving as State GOP Chairman. He’s probably safe in 2020.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
As long as Lamborn can keep fending off Primary challengers, he’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (70%)↑
Crow raised more than $1 million in his first 6 months as an incumbent; he’s trending toward safe seat territory.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Not a great sign for Republicans.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018 and have made significant legislative progress in 2019.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
If you think of the 2020 election as a marketplace, Senate Republicans have absolutely nothing to sell.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades; it’s not inconceivable that this margin could grow in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republican consultants are openly saying that recall elections are their only real chance in Colorado these days.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

13 Shares

Comments are closed.