The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

 

LAST UPDATE: July 28, 2020

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Joe Biden (75%)↑
Polls consistently show Biden with double-digit leads in Colorado. We’re not going to be a Presidential swing state in 2020.

(R) Donald Trump* (25%)↓
Don’t be surprised if Trump doesn’t make another stop in Colorado before Election Day; there’s nothing here for him.

 

 


U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (75%)↑
Republicans spent millions of dollars on pre-Primary attack ads, and Hickenlooper still defeated Andrew Romanoff by 20 points. Trying to label Hick as corrupt just isn’t going to work.

(R) Cory Gardner* (25%)↓
Lashing yourself to President Trump in 2020 is the equivalent of wearing cement shoes on a pier. Gardner can’t outperform Trump enough to defeat Hickenlooper.

 

 


CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
In January, DeGette will have served longer in Congress than any other politician in Colorado history.

 

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Lauren Boebert* (50%)↓
Boebert’s persistent idiocy has national pundits looking at CO-3 as a toss-up (at best) for Republicans.

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (50%)↑
Mitsch Bush is the better-known candidate in the race and has the advantage of an opponent who can’t keep her foot out of her mouth.

 

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
If someone had run a Republican Primary against Buck, he might have lost. This district is probably too red to be a problem in November.

(D) Ike McCorkle* (20%)
McCorkle would need a lot of outside help to win here. It’s hard to see Democrats deciding to invest heavily here, especially given the new opportunity in CO-3.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
He’s arguably the dimmest bulb in Congress, but his ultra-conservative district doesn’t care.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (80%)↑
Crow became a national name after strong performance as one of seven House Impeachment Managers and has continued to be a strong, visible presence in the district.

(R) Steve House* (20%)↓
House is literally hoping to find enough poll watchers who will “count” some extra votes for him. House has no chance here.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (95%)
Perlmutter will not lose in 2020. Period.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Since he moved from CO-6 to CO-7, Stockham can keep his campaign grift going for a few more months.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
The 2018 Election was a nightmare for Republicans. This year, the June Primary showed that 2020 might be even worse. Democrats are pretty safe here.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take majority control, but it’s equally likely that they will lose at least one of their current seats.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades — and it may actually grow in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
As long as the Neville Clan is making decisions on campaign strategy, Republicans have no chance of even denting the Democratic majority.

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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