The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

 

LAST UPDATE: May 8, 2020

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Joe Biden (75%)↑
With Bernie out of the race, the path is clear for Biden in Colorado.

(R) Donald Trump* (25%)↓
In 2008, Barack Obama won Colorado by 9 points. Biden might do better.

 

 


U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (65%)↑
Hickenlooper outraised Gardner by 65% in Q1, and now he’s outpolling the incumbent by 17-18 points.

(R) Cory Gardner* (25%)↓
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Gardner…it does.

(D) Andrew Romanoff* (10%)↓
We finally know that the June Primary ballot will have only two names: Hickenlooper and Romanoff. That’s good news for Romanoff, though the odds of him winning are slim.

 

(D) Lorena Garcia* (OFF)
State Supreme Court rules that Garcia did not do enough to qualify for the June Primary ballot.

(D) Michelle Ferrigno Warren* (OFF)
State Supreme Court rules that collecting half of needed signatures is not, in fact, “substantial compliance” with election law, so Warren is out.

(D) Diana Bray* (OFF)
Didn’t make the June Primary ballot.

(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (OFF)
Campaign is over after she failed to make 30% threshold at state Democratic assembly.

(D) Trish Zornio* (OFF)
Ended campaign on April 15.

 


CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
Looks like clear sailing to re-election. Again.

 

(D) Crisanta Duran (OFF)
Duran’s campaign had disaster-like qualities. Right move to get out early.

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (60%)↓
Fundraising troubles compounded by constant sniping at his heels from “Yosemite Samantha.”

(D) James Iacino* (30%)↑
Building up big warchest, getting top endorsements (Ken Salazar, Phil Weiser, etc.), and even pulled out a narrow victory at CO-3 assembly to get topline on June ballot.

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (25%)↑
Mitsch Bush comes through with huge Q1 to get right back in the Democratic race.

(R) Lauren Boebert* (20%)↑
Gun-toting restaurateur from Rifle could cause real trouble for Tipton.

 

(D) Don Valdez (OFF)
Pulled the plug in late October to focus on running for re-election in State House.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Republican unease has compelled Buck to keep reminding people that he is indeed running for re-election in 2020.

(D) Ike McCorkle* (20%)
McCorkle is the de-facto Democratic nominee in 2020. Won’t be in position to do much other than hope voters turn on Buck in November.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
He’s arguably the dimmest bulb in Congress, but his ultra-conservative district doesn’t care.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (80%)↑
Crow became a national name after strong performance as one of seven House Impeachment Managers. In this district, in this state, in this year…he’s not going to lose.

(R) Steve House* (20%)↓
House for House? Not in 2020.

 

(R) Casper Stockham* (OFF)
Stockham has decided to lose a Congressional race in CO-7 instead of CO-6.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Stockham probably wasn’t going to win GOP Primary in CO-6; now he gets to wait until November to register another loss.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018 and have made significant legislative progress ever since.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
If you think of the 2020 election as a marketplace, Senate Republicans have absolutely nothing to sell.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades; it’s not inconceivable that this margin could grow in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republican consultants were openly saying that recall elections are their only real chance in Colorado these days (SPOILER ALERT: Recalls didn’t work).

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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