The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: October 11, 2019

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Any Democrat With a Pulse (60%)↑
Democrats trounced Republicans in Colorado in 2018. This is a “blue state” now.

(R) Donald Trump* (40%)↓
Trump’s approval ratings in Colorado are dropping bigly — and they weren’t good in the first place.

 


U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (55%)↑
The former two-term Governor of Colorado is the obvious frontrunner here.

(R) Cory Gardner* (35%)↓
Gardner may well have ended all hope of re-election with his miserable performance (not) answering questions about Trump and Ukraine.

(D) Andrew Romanoff* (10%)↓
Romanoff is trying to rebrand himself as the liberal upstart in this race.

(R) Steve Reams (10%)
Weld County Sheriff would be poised to make this jump if Gardner keeps faltering.

(D) Angela Williams* (2%)
Denver State Senator officially joined the race in July. If the quality of her announcement video is any indication, this won’t end well.

(D) Lorena Garcia* (1%)↓
Community activist was first Democrat to formally announce bid for 2020; unfortunately for her, being first counts for squat.

(D) Trish Zornio* (1%)↓
The little-known Zornio has been running for this seat for nearly two years already. It’s probably time to do something else.

(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (0%)
Former CO-5 candidate is a longshot to even make the Primary ballot.

(D) Michelle Ferrigno Warren* (0%)
Who?

 

(D) Alice Madden (OFF)
Exited race on October 11.

(D) Mike Johnston (OFF)
Announced on September 3 that he was “suspending” his campaign.

(D) John Walsh (OFF)
Dropped out on September 11 and endorsed Hickenlooper.

(D) Dan Baer (OFF)
Baer should probably do something besides running for federal office for awhile.

(D) Denise Burgess (OFF)
Burgess was an official candidate for somewhere between 72 and 96 hours.

(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Perlmutter isn’t going to run if Hickenlooper is in the race.

(D) Joe Neguse (OFF)
Ditto Perlmutter above.

(D) Jena Griswold (OFF)
Colorado Secretary of State was eager to run but did not find enough of a reciprocal response.

 


 

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
Looks like clear sailing to re-election now that Duran is officially out.

(D) Crisanta Duran (OFF)
Duran’s campaign had disaster-like qualities. Right move to get out early.

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)
Tipton represents a district that is very much suited to him. His comfortable re-election in an otherwise Democratic year should give him plenty of space.

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (20%)
If there was a time to beat Tipton, it was probably in 2018. Mitsch Bush thinks otherwise.

(D) Don Valdez* (10%)
Little-known state lawmaker from Southern Colorado officially joined race in late June.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Republican unease has compelled Buck to keep reminding people that he is indeed running for re-election in 2020. Buck’s biggest threat remains a GOP Primary challenge.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
He’s arguably the dimmest bulb in Congress, but his ultra-conservative district doesn’t care.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (70%)↑
Crow raised more than $1 million in his first 6 months as an incumbent; he’s trending toward safe seat territory.

(R) Steve House* (25%)
Former State Republican Party Chairman doesn’t have a lot going for him other than obvious puns using his last name.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Stockham does have the support of former Rep. Tom Tancredo…for whatever that’s worth.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018 and have made significant legislative progress in 2019.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
If you think of the 2020 election as a marketplace, Senate Republicans have absolutely nothing to sell.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades; it’s not inconceivable that this margin could grow in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republican consultants are openly saying that recall elections are their only real chance in Colorado these days.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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