The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: May 23, 2019

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Any Democrat With a Pulse (60%)↑
Democrats trounced Republicans in Colorado in 2018. This is a “blue state” now.

(R) Donald Trump* (40%)↓
President Trump’s 2020 campaign manager thinks Colorado is flippable, so, yeah.

 


U.S. SENATE

(R) Cory Gardner* (50%)↓
He’s the incumbent and he says he’s running. But a series of questionable moves only raises our suspicion that he might not stay in the race.

(D) Joe Neguse (30%)↓
Neguse could all but clear the Democratic field if he runs, but will he?

(D) Mike Johnston* (20%)↑
Johnston is probably the leader among the current crop of officially-declared Democratic candidates.

(D) Andrew Romanoff* (10%)
Wrong time, wrong place. Again.

(R) Steve Reams (10%)↑
Weld County Sheriff is making a whole lot of noise lately.

(D) John Hickenlooper (10%)↓
Hick is running for President in 2020, but that isn’t working out real well.

(D) John Walsh* (10%)
Former U.S. Attorney entered race in mid-April and will need big fundraising quarter in Q2.

(D) Alice Madden (10%)↓
Madden finally entered the race in May after weeks of teasing a campaign; we explained her problems here.

(D) Dan Baer* (5%)
Campaign slogan could be: “Please elect me to something.”

(D) Angela Williams (5%)
Denver lawmaker is talking about a bid. She might be better than Baer, but that’s probably her ceiling.

(D) Lorena Garcia* (1%)↓
Community activist was first Democrat to formally announce bid for 2020, but she has no realistic chance here.

(D) Trish Zornio* (1%)↓
The little-known Zornio has been running for this seat for more than a year. Her Q1 fundraising numbers were as anemic as her name ID.

(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (0%)
Former CO-5 candidate is a longshot to even make the Primary ballot.

 

(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Doesn’t sound like he’s interested in this race.

(D) Crisanta Duran (OFF)
Duran will challenge Rep. Diana DeGette in CO-1 instead.

(D) Danielle Kombo (OFF)
That was a short trip.


 

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (80%)↑
DeGette isn’t out of the woods yet, but weak Q1 from Duran should be reason to exhale.

(D) Crisanta Duran* (20%)↓
Laid an egg in first fundraising quarter and is struggling to find momentum already.

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat until redistricting…though he may run for U.S. Senate in 2020 instead.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (85%)↑
Tipton represents a district that is very much suited to him. His comfortable re-election in an otherwise Democratic year should give him plenty of space.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck’s biggest concern is redistricting. And serving as State GOP Chairman. He’s probably safe in 2020.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
As long as Lamborn can keep fending off Primary challengers, he’ll be here until he decides to do something else.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (70%)↑
Crow followed up his 11-point victory over incumbent Mike Coffman in 2018 with a massive Q1 fundraising report. This will be a tough get for any Republican challenger.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018 and have made significant legislative progress in 2019.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
If you think of the 2020 election as a marketplace, Senate Republicans have absolutely nothing to sell.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades; it’s not inconceivable that this margin could grow in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republican consultants are openly saying that recall elections are their only real chance in Colorado these days.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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