The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

 

LAST UPDATE: October 1, 2020

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Joe Biden (90%)↑
Biden is going to win Colorado. They only question is about margin of victory.

(R) Donald Trump* (10%)↓
Trump campaign isn’t spending much money in Colorado (which is good, because it doesn’t have a lot of money anymore).

 

 


U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)↑
The Cook Political Report moved this race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.” Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently moved it from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.” With ballots going out on Oct. 9, Hickenlooper is the clear favorite.

(R) Cory Gardner* (20%)↓
Gardner’s path to victory is more of a circle. He seems to have thrown in the towel for the most part.

 

 


CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
In January, DeGette will have served longer in Congress than any other politician in Colorado history.

 

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (55%)↑
Polling shows that this race is neck-and-neck, and DMB has the resources to bring it home after a record-smashing Q3 fundraising quarter.

(R) Lauren Boebert* (45%)↓
Boebert is running out of things to say as her gun-toting mom routine wears thin. Her campaign is desperately trying to avoid having to answer serious questions until Nov. 4.

 

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Buck has made himself into a clown. A bad one. But he’s still going to get re-elected in this red district.

(D) Ike McCorkle* (20%)
McCorkle probably won’t have the resources to make a significant media splash before ballots arrive in mailboxes.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
Yup, this guy really is an actual Member of Congress.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (85%)↑
Crow picked up the endorsement of The Denver Post and his re-election campaign is rolling.

(R) Steve House* (15%)↓
House is not a great candidate. Whodathunkit?

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (95%)
Perlmutter is a popular Democrat in a Democratic-leaning county with a terrible opponent.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Since he moved from CO-6 to CO-7, Stockham can keep his campaign grift going for a few more months.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
The math is simple: There aren’t enough winnable seats for Republicans in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
Colorado Republicans grudgingly admit that this ain’t happening in 2020.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
It would be hard for Democrats to intentionally lose enough seats to end up in the minority in 2021.

REPUBLICANS (10%)
As long as the Neville Clan is making decisions on campaign strategy, Republicans have no chance of even denting the Democratic majority.

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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