The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

 

LAST UPDATE: October 22, 2020

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Joe Biden (90%)↑
Biden is going to win Colorado. The only question is about margin of victory.

(R) Donald Trump* (10%)↓
Every new poll that comes out shows Trump falling further behind in Colorado.

 

 


U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (80%)↑
Coloradans are voting in big numbers; according to polling data, they’re likely voting for Hick.

(R) Cory Gardner* (20%)↓
Gardner is making quite the fool of himself on his way out the door.

 

 


CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
In January, DeGette will have served longer in Congress than any other politician in Colorado history.

 

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (95%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (55%)↑
This is the biggest unknown of the top tier races in Colorado. Mitsch Bush is outspending Boebert and has the better message.

(R) Lauren Boebert* (45%)↓
Newspapers across CO-03 agree that Boebert should not be in Congress, and she’s done nothing to adjust her narrative beyond “angry mom with a gun.” Her chances probably depend entirely on how CO-03 voters turn out for Trump.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (80%)
Trump gave Buck his “complete and total endorsement,” which didn’t work out so well for Scott Tipton in CO-03.

(D) Ike McCorkle* (20%)
McCorkle may end up doing better than previous challengers because 2020 is looking good for Democrats, but it’s unlikely that he’ll get close enough to make Buck sweat.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
Yup, this guy really is an actual Member of Congress.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (85%)↑
Crow shouldn’t have any trouble winning re-election in 2020.

(R) Steve House* (15%)↓
House is not a good candidate. Whodathunkit?

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (95%)
Perlmutter is a popular Democrat in a Democratic-leaning county with a terrible opponent.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Since he moved from CO-6 to CO-7, Stockham can keep his campaign grift going for a few more months.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
The math is simple: There aren’t enough winnable seats for Republicans in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
Colorado Republicans grudgingly admit that this ain’t happening in 2020.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (90%)
There’s no realistic scenario in which Democrats don’t maintain a healthy majority here.

REPUBLICANS (10%)
House Minority Leader Patrick Neville is taking his ball and going home. Unfortunately for House Republicans, he’s still leading much of 2020 strategy for the GOP.

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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