The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: February 11, 2020

 

PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Bernie Sanders (50%)↑
Now that the Democratic field is getting small enough to manage in this space, we can start listing specific names instead of “Warm Body.” It seems likely that the eventual Democratic nominee is going to defeat President Trump in Colorado — whoever it is.

(D) Michael Bloomberg (40%)↑
Bloomberg is spending big in Colorado.

(D) Pete Buttigieg (35%)↑
Buttigieg hasn’t focused a ton of resources on Colorado, but if he’s the nominee, it’s hard to see him not winning our state.

(D) Elizabeth Warren (30%)↓
Warren has had a strong presence in Colorado, but she can’t win the state if she’s not the nominee in November.

(D) Joe Biden (30%)
Ditto Buttigieg.

(R) Donald Trump* (30%)↓
Trump’s approval ratings in Colorado are dropping bigly — and they weren’t good in the first place.

 


U.S. SENATE

(D) John Hickenlooper* (65%)↑
Hick outraised Gardner by 40% in Q4 and is building a strong campaign.

(R) Cory Gardner* (25%)↓
Gardner had a poor fundraising quarter in Q4 and was a disaster on impeachment.

(D) Andrew Romanoff* (10%)↓
Romanoff spent more money than he raised in Q4 2019. That’s not good.

(R) Steve Reams (10%)
Weld County Sheriff would be poised to make this jump if Gardner keeps faltering.

(D) Lorena Garcia* (1%)↓
Community activist was first Democrat to formally announce bid for 2020; unfortunately for her, being first counts for squat.

(D) Trish Zornio* (1%)↓
The little-known Zornio has been running for this seat for nearly two years already. It’s probably time to do something else.

(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (0%)
Former CO-5 candidate is a longshot to even make the Primary ballot.

(D) Michelle Ferrigno Warren* (0%)
Who?

(D) Diana Bray* (0%)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

(D) David Goldfischer* (0%)
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

(D) Angela Williams (OFF)
Suspended her U.S. Senate campaign just before Thanksgiving in order to turn her attention to re-election to the State Senate.

(D) Alice Madden (OFF)
Exited race on October 11.

(D) Mike Johnston (OFF)
Announced on September 3 that he was “suspending” his campaign.

(D) John Walsh (OFF)
Dropped out on September 11 and endorsed Hickenlooper.

(D) Dan Baer (OFF)
Baer should probably do something besides running for federal office for awhile.

(D) Denise Burgess (OFF)
Burgess was an official candidate for somewhere between 72 and 96 hours.

(D) Ed Perlmutter (OFF)
Perlmutter isn’t going to run if Hickenlooper is in the race.

(D) Joe Neguse (OFF)
Ditto Perlmutter above.

(D) Jena Griswold (OFF)
Colorado Secretary of State was eager to run but did not find enough of a reciprocal response.

 


 

CO-1 (DENVER)

(D) Diana DeGette* (95%)↑
Looks like clear sailing to re-election now that Duran is officially out.

 

(D) Crisanta Duran (OFF)
Duran’s campaign had disaster-like qualities. Right move to get out early.

 


CO-2 (BOULDER-ISH)

(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.

 


CO-3 (WESTERN & SOUTHERN COLO.)

(R) Scott Tipton* (60%)↓
Fundraising troubles compounded by constant sniping at his heels from “Yosemite Samantha.”

(D) James Iacino* (30%)↑
Raised big money in first full fundraising quarter.

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (25%)
If there was a time to beat Tipton, it was probably in 2018. Mitsch Bush thinks otherwise.

(R) Lauren Boebert* (20%)↑
Gun-toting restaurateur from Rifle could cause real trouble for Tipton.

 

(D) Don Valdez (OFF)
Pulled the plug in late October to focus on running for re-election in State House.

 


CO-4 (NORTHEAST-ISH COLORADO)

(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Republican unease has compelled Buck to keep reminding people that he is indeed running for re-election in 2020. Buck’s biggest threat remains a GOP Primary challenge.

 


CO-5 (COLORADO SPRINGS)

(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
He’s arguably the dimmest bulb in Congress, but his ultra-conservative district doesn’t care.

 


CO-6 (AURORA)

(D) Jason Crow* (80%)↑
Crow became a national name after strong performance as one of seven House Impeachment Managers. In this district, in this state, in this year…he’s not going to lose.

(R) Steve House* (20%)↓
House is raising decent money for a guy who has virtually no chance; we’d expect that will dry up shortly.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Stockham does have the support of former Rep. Tom Tancredo…for whatever that’s worth.

 


CO-7 (JEFFERSON COUNTY)

(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.

 


STATE SENATE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (60%)
Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018 and have made significant legislative progress in 2019.

REPUBLICANS (40%)
If you think of the 2020 election as a marketplace, Senate Republicans have absolutely nothing to sell.

 


STATE HOUSE MAJORITY

DEMOCRATS (80%)
Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades; it’s not inconceivable that this margin could grow in 2020.

REPUBLICANS (20%)
Republican consultants are openly saying that recall elections are their only real chance in Colorado these days.

 

 


The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

Usage allowed with credit to ColoradoPols.com.

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