The Big Line: 2020

NOTE: Percentages reflect Colorado Pols’ estimated chances of winning in the 2020 General Election in ColoradoNumbers are not intended to estimate final margin of victory.

Candidates with an asterisk (*) are officially running, or widely presumed to be running.

LAST UPDATE: July 16, 2019


PRESIDENT (To Win Colorado)

(D) Any Democrat With a Pulse (60%)↑
Democrats trounced Republicans in Colorado in 2018. This is a “blue state” now.

(R) Donald Trump* (40%)↓
President Trump’s 2020 campaign manager thinks Colorado is flippable, and so does Steve Barlock! Please stop holding your breath.



(R) Cory Gardner* (50%)↓
Gardner appears to be running for re-election in 2020. Maybe he should actually spend some time in Colorado beforehand.

(D) Mike Johnston* (20%)↓
Johnston is doing a good job raising money. His profile among Democratic Primary voters? Not so much.

(D) Andrew Romanoff* (10%)
Always seems to be (politically) in wrong place at wrong time; will this time be different?

(D) Ed Perlmutter (10%)
Perlmutter may be inching back toward a potential campaign.

(D) Joe Neguse (10%)
Neguse could all but clear the Democratic field if he runs, but will he?

(R) Steve Reams (10%)↑
Weld County Sheriff is making a whole lot of noise lately.

(D) John Hickenlooper (10%)↓
Hick is running for President in 2020, but that isn’t working out real well.

(D) John Walsh* (10%)
Former U.S. Attorney entered race in mid-April and will need big fundraising quarter in Q2.

(D) Jena Griswold (10%)
Colorado Secretary of State really wants people to want her to run for U.S. Senate.

(D) Alice Madden (10%)↓
Madden finally entered the race in May after weeks of teasing a campaign; we explained her problems here.

(D) Dan Baer* (5%)
Campaign slogan could be: “Please elect me to something.”

(D) Angela Williams* (2%)
Denver State Senator officially joined the race in July. If the quality of her announcement video is any indication, this won’t end well.

(D) Lorena Garcia* (1%)↓
Community activist was first Democrat to formally announce bid for 2020, but she has no realistic chance here.

(D) Trish Zornio* (1%)↓
The little-known Zornio has been running for this seat for more than a year. Her Q1 fundraising numbers were as anemic as her name ID.

(D) Stephany Rose Spaulding* (0%)
Former CO-5 candidate is a longshot to even make the Primary ballot.




(D) Diana DeGette* (85%)↑
DeGette isn’t setting any fundraising records, but she doesn’t have to worry about that.

(D) Crisanta Duran* (15%)↓
Duran has performed about as poorly as DeGette could have hoped.



(D) Joe Neguse* (90%)
Neguse will have no trouble keeping this seat.



(R) Scott Tipton* (80%)
Tipton represents a district that is very much suited to him. His comfortable re-election in an otherwise Democratic year should give him plenty of space.

(D) Diane Mitsch Bush* (20%)
If there was a time to beat Tipton, it was probably in 2018. Mitsch Bush thinks otherwise.

(D) Don Valdez* (10%)
Little-known state lawmaker from Southern Colorado officially joined race in late June.



(R) Ken Buck* (70%)
Buck’s biggest concern is redistricting. And serving as State GOP Chairman. He’s probably safe in 2020.



(R) Doug Lamborn* (90%)↑
As long as Lamborn can keep fending off Primary challengers, he’ll be here until he decides to do something else.



(D) Jason Crow* (70%)↑
Crow followed up his 11-point victory over incumbent Mike Coffman in 2018 with a massive Q1 fundraising report. This will be a tough get for any Republican challenger.

(R) Casper Stockham* (5%)
Not a great sign for Republicans.



(D) Ed Perlmutter* (90%)
Like most of the others on this list, Perlmutter’s greatest threat is also redistricting; he’s plenty safe in 2020.



Democrats outperformed Republicans by every measurement in 2018 and have made significant legislative progress in 2019.

If you think of the 2020 election as a marketplace, Senate Republicans have absolutely nothing to sell.



Democrats currently hold the biggest State House majority in decades; it’s not inconceivable that this margin could grow in 2020.

Republican consultants are openly saying that recall elections are their only real chance in Colorado these days.



The “Big Line” and its contents are the exclusive creation of Colorado Pols and will be updated as conditions change prior to the 2020 General Election. It is an accurate, if unscientific, look at the races from insider perspectives from both parties. It does NOT reflect who we might like to see win, but reflects who has the best chance to win a General Election based on inside information and our analysis of that information. 

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