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What ISN’T Wrong With Colorado Republicans?

Eli Stokols, Fox 31’s political reporter, has a long blog post over at 5280 magazine attempting to analyze the problems with Colorado’s Republican Party. Stokols points out one specific problem that we have long scratched our head about in regards to the GOP:

Early in 2012, Mitt Romney paid his first visits to Colorado, to far-flung places such as Fort Lupton and Craig, a good 200 miles from Denver. After a few such trips, some political observers, myself included, began to wonder why the GOP nominee was focusing on these reliably red and sparsely populated parts of the state. It made a certain amount of sense: No one expected Obama to win Colorado as easily as he did, and no one ever expected Mitt Romney to win Denver County anyway.

However, it’s become clear that Obama’s margin in Colorado owes itself to not just winning Denver, but to flat out running up the score here, thumping Romney by almost 150,000 votes. Breaking the 70 percent mark in a base county is a positive for any candidate; doing it in a state’s most populous county means game over.

We’ve written in this space many times about how Democrat Ken Salazar defeated Republican Pete Coors in their 2004 Senate battle because of Denver. It wasn’t that Salazar outperformed Coors in Denver in terms of percentages, but rather the enormous number of votes that gave him a cushion to win the seat despite tighter results elsewhere in Colorado. We’ve never understood how Republicans don’t seem to understand that 85% of Colorado voters live along the Front Range, and Mitt Romney’s campaign is yet another example of that confusion.

In late May 2012, Romney’s campaign made a big deal out of his appearance in Craig, Colorado, a town in Northwest Colorado with a population of less than 10,000 people. We were baffled at the choice of Craig as a campaign stop, but Romney did go on to win Moffat County (Craig is the largest town in Moffat) with 76 percent of the vote. Nevermind that the vote totals were 4,695 for Romney and 1,330 for Barack Obama.

Romney continued to generally avoid large population areas in Colorado, and at one point in the fall he hadn’t visited the Denver Metro area in 30 days. Perhaps he thought each Colorado county would serve as 1/64th of an electoral vote, because the numbers are staggering otherwise.

Obama defeated Romney in Colorado by 137,858 votes. Of Obama’s 1,323,101 votes in the state, 914,815 came from just seven counties (Jefferson, Denver, Boulder, Arapahoe, Douglas, Adams and Larimer). In those seven counties, Obama outpolled Romney by 264,193 votes — nearly double his final margin of victory.

Maybe Romney wouldn’t have performed much better if he had campaigned more in Metro Denver, but he couldn’t have done any worse. Outside of Douglas and El Paso counties, the two largest Red counties in Colorado, Romney’s only hope was to somehow increase turnout in smaller West Slope counties. Of course, that would only work if he simultaneously figured out a way to dramatically increase the population of Western Colorado.

This isn’t the only reason why Republicans are having a hard time winning major statewide elections in Colorado, but it’s a big one.

 

What 5 bills would you introduce?

Ok, with session about to start, if you were in the House what 5 bills would you introduce? I’ll start it off with my 5:

  1. Civil Unions
  2. Call for a constitutional convention. That will work as well as any of the other convoluted suggestions. And it will be quicker.
  3. Effective campaign finance reform. Either public financing or unlimited with full disclosure. Including Congressional elections in the state.
  4. Create a legislative research group who’s job is to measure the effectiveness and ROI of legislation, departments, etc.
  5. Invest in local start-ups. More jobs, better jobs, and the state turns a profit. What’s not to like?

This Is What Failed Leadership Looks Like



Empty U.S. House chambers.

Politico:

With the country teetering on this fiscal cliff of deep spending cuts and sharp tax hikes, the philosophical differences, the shortened timetable and the political dynamics appear to be insurmountable hurdles for a bipartisan deal by New Year’s Day.

Hopes of a grand-bargain – to shave trillions of dollars off the deficit by cutting entitlement programs and raising revenue – are shattered. House Republicans already failed to pass their “Plan B” proposal. And now aides and senators say the White House’s smaller, fall-back plan floated last week is a non-starter among Republicans in Senate – much less the House.

On top of that, the Treasury Department announced Wednesday that the nation would hit the debt limit on Dec. 31, and would then have to take “extraordinary measures” to avoid exhausting the government’s borrowing limit in the New Year.

Adds the Washington Post:

If anything, hope for success appeared to have dimmed over the Christmas holiday. The Republican-controlled House last week abdicated responsibility for resolving the crisis, leaving all eyes on the Senate. But senior aides in both parties said Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have not met or even spoken since leaving town for the weekend…

With no sign of urgency, aides in both parties predicted that failure was not just a possibility – it was rapidly becoming the most likely outcome. No significant movement was expected Thursday: Obama was scheduled to be in the air traveling back from his Hawaiian holiday for a good portion of the day, and the Senate wasn’t set to convene for votes until the evening.

Even if some miraculous breakthrough in the Senate could be achieved, another round of winter weather in the Washington, D.C. area this weekend could well disrupt air travel, making it difficult for House members to reconvene in time for a vote before the new year–and that assumes the Republican-controlled House of Representatives is a body capable of passing anything the President would be able to sign. After the failure before Christmas by Speaker John Boehner to pass his “Plan B” alternative measure, a red-on-red disaster abetted by at least two Colorado Republican members of Congress, dysfunction seems to be the rule.

The public is becoming increasingly, undeniably aware of who is to blame for the impasse, as a poll released yesterday shows once again–Huffington Post reports:

President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats got a moderate boost in approval ratings for their handling of the crisis. Obama’s rating on the negotiations rose to a majority 54 percent, while approval for Democratic leaders in Congress jumped to 45 percent. Republicans did not see similar gains, with their number holding nearly steady at 26 percent. [Pols emphasis]

Any shift in approval didn’t appear to affect the desire for bipartisan deal-making. Just 22 percent of people said either side should stick to its principles, while 68 percent called for a compromise.

And this is the key: President Barack Obama has already compromised. A casual look at the offers the President has made, both increasing the threshold of income at which higher tax rates would apply, as well as offering entitlement rate-of-growth cuts that have genuinely upset liberal Democrats, and there’s no question which side has offered more to get a deal. We don’t really think the administration can offer much more without putting itself in a situation similar to that faced by Boehner–a fact made even clearer by the intense public opposition to cutting institutions like Social Security and Medicare. One small upshot is that as the scale of what can be achieved with an intransigent GOP-controlled House diminishes, so do the cuts.

Politically, it’s critical to understand that this is not 2009. There is no upwelling of conservative opposition brewing as was the case with the then-incipient “Tea Party.” The country has been through years of exactly this kind of obstruction and brinkmanship since Republicans retook control of the House in 2010. The voters want solutions. They are tired of rhetoric. What the polls show is a growing fatigue with Republican intransigence, and a growing understanding that it is Republican intransigence at the heart of much of their frustration with government.

It is not “bias” to acknowledge when one side is plainly losing.

What about Colorado’s GOP Immigration-Reform Obstructionists in Congress?

The Denver Post’s Sunday editorial pointed out the “flaws” in not one but two GOP immigration bills, floated or introduced last week in Congress.

One proposal actually reduces visas for poor people from places like Africa, to make room for higher-achieving immigrants, favoring one group over the other. The other bill allows undocumented kids to attend college and get work visas.

But neither offers a path to citizenship, as The Post favors.

Why doesn’t The Post get local and offer some suggestions on how our own big-shot Republicans in Congress will get on board?

The Post need look no further than its own website to find Rep. Mike Coffman saying he opposes a path to citizenship. Rep. Scott Tipton also has opposed it on The Post’s pages, as did Rep. Doug Lamborn. Rep. Cory Gardner opposes it, too.

It’s great for The Post to favor comprehensive immigration reform and to criticize the GOP’s half-baked proposals.

But why be silent about the local Republican opponents.

Does The Post have any suggestions on how Colorado’s Republican Congressmen can buck off the hard-line anti-immigration activists and talk-radio hosts from their backs and support comprehensive immigration reform?

What Would You Do With The Powerball Jackpot?

A poll follows–and remember, you can’t win if you don’t play.

Dick Morris Admits What You Already Know

Newshounds:

Dick Morris visited the Hannity show [Monday night] to explain how he got it so wrong with his prediction of a “landslidey” Romney win. After blaming Hurricane Sandy and acknowledging that he got it “dead wrong” about the demographic turnout, Morris made a jaw-dropping admission. That his prediction was designed to help turn around Romney’s failing campaign…

Morris openly admitted his prediction was an election ploy:

“Sean, I hope people aren’t mad at me about it… I spoke about what I believed and I think that there was a period of time when the Romney campaign was falling apart, people were not optimistic, nobody thought there was a chance of victory and I felt that it was my duty at that point to go out and say what I said.” [Pols emphasis] And at the time that I said it, I believe I was right.

Dick Morris, a former advisor to Bill Clinton turned into a relentlessly pro-GOP cheerleader and laughably inaccurate predictor of future political events, was brought to Colorado by the conservative group Americans for Prosperity in September. At the time, Morris was of course confidently predicting a landslide victory on Election Day for Mitt Romney.

They say “fake it ’til you make it,” but as we’ve established, in 2012 they were just…faking it.

Unaffiliated voter registration surges everywhere. Why and what ramifications will this have ?

(added a break in the middle for promotion. Interesting… – promoted by ProgressiveCowgirl) I did a comment last month on the phenomenon of the recent surge of unaffliated registered voters based on some revealing numbers in Larimer County which I published in the comment posts since the numbers were quite a shocker to me. Re-published […]

What?! I-25 Will Be Closed Tonight?!

Hopefully you’re not just realizing this now. Aren’t you glad you watch the news? 9NEWS has some helpful tips for navigating the city while Interstate 25 is closed this evening from 5:00PM to 10:00PM for the presidential debate at the University of Denver: Alternate routes like C-470, Interstate-225, Santa Fe Drive and Hampden Avenue are […]

Commissioners: “We don’t care what you say, really.”

After shooting down calls to augment their membership because it would “expand government,” the Jefferson County Board of Commissioners last week voted to create two metropolitan districts, despite preexisting policy and the best advice of their staff.

From the Golden Transcript:

Jefferson County commissioners overruled a prerecession policy last week in support of the developers of the former Green Gables country club.

The unanimous decision during last week’s regular meeting of the Board of County Commissioners granted the developers permission to form two Green Games Metropolitan Districts. Once formed, the districts will take out mill-levy bonds, raising the millions of dollars needed to construct the necessary infrastructure for planned developments, including roads, sidewalks, water lines, storm water drainage, common areas and parkland.

“The total cost for improvements for both districts is a little more than $37 million,” county planner Alan Tiefenbach told the commissioners.

Tiefenbach said that county staff had recommended denial of Metro District One, which would include most of the residential space, because of a policy a former Board of County Commissioners had set.

Policy Part 7, Chapter 2, Section 5.A.6 states that “the use of special districts solely as a financing mechanism,” for making necessary development improvements is to be discouraged by the county.

The county’s current supervisor of planning, Mike Schuster, said by phone that his understanding was that the policy was written before 2008 in response to complaints from some residents that their property-tax burden was made significantly greater than their neighbors by developers using special-district taxes, instead of their own pockets to pay for upfront infrastructure costs.

At the hearing, Tiefenbach said developers historically pass along those costs through increased lot-sale prices. However, when property taxes are used to cover infrastructure costs, he said, there is no compelling reason the developers could not still sell the lots for a slightly higher price.

“In this case it could be considered double dipping,” Tiefenbach said.

During last week’s meeting, though, both the applicant, and board of commissioners Chairman Donald Rosier said the practice of using metropolitan districts to help fund up-front development costs has become increasingly common and necessary in recent years.

“I have formed many metro districts, and I know that without those districts, those communities would not exist nowadays,” Rosier said.

This is yet another example of the Board kowtowing to the whims of developers without first considering the needs of the communities involved. As the county supervisor of planning — inarguably the person who best understands the implications of development — mentions, county residents are adversely affected when special districts are created exclusively for financing purposes.

If you follow the Board’s logic, then, it’s a bad “expansion of government” when there are more elected officials around to respond to constituent needs and a good “expansion of government” when taxpayers foot the bill for private development. In other words, government expansion is something to be afraid of when it means more accountability, and something to cherish when it means higher property taxes. It almost makes sense! What’s the best way to combat the big, bad-government? More powerful private entities, of course!

Beyond the larger implications of this decision, it’s absurd that the commissioners are so willing to ignore the advice of their staff. The Board was given the professional opinion of two county planners, educated experts in local government zoning and taxation, on the topic of zoning and taxation. That opinion, however, ran counter to what the commissioners intended to do all along and was summarily swept under the rug.

What’s the point of asking for professional advice if you’re just going to ignore it? Furthermore, why even have a staff of experts educated in various disciplines of local government if their input doesn’t influence your decision?

Hell, maybe the commissioners’ end game is to shrink county government after all. Shrink it, that is, down to just three members.

In the echo chamber that is the Board of County Commissioners, only three voices really matter in the end.  

What’s Summers’ Strategy in SD-22?

In mid-August, State Representative Andy Kerr for the first time surpassed Republican opponent Ken Summers in funds raised, spent, and on hand in the SD-22 race. In the intervening period, Kerr has kept the pressure on, raising just under $48,000 since July 27th. To put that figure in perspective, that means Kerr has hauled in upwards of $900 a day over the past month and a half.

Summers, meanwhile, raised just over $24,000 in the same period, a rate of about $470 day. That’s right. Kerr has outraised his opponent by a 2-1 margin.

Kerr has lost the lead in cash-on-hand, but that’s not surprising with election day fewer than 50 days away. Since late July, the Democrat has spent just over $44,000, compared to $4,900 for Summers. It’s not as if Kerr is wasting any money, however: the lion’s share of his expenses relate to direct mail costs. Kerr is spending money to connect with voters. More importantly, he’s bringing in more than enough to offset his high burn rate.

Summers, on the other hand, has spent a relatively paltry few thousand on brochures, lapel pins, stamps, and the consulting services of a “field director.”

The SD-22 race is incredibly competitive on paper. Two equally-qualified, incumbent state representatives are running against each other in a district with functionally equal registration numbers. Because neither candidate enjoys a natural advantage, this is one of those campaigns where strategy will or lose the race.

Which begs the question: is Ken Summers incompetent? It bears repeating: election day is now less than two months away. Summers needed to use the summer to engage in substantive voter contact by spending money on direct mail and walk pieces. Ballots will start arriving in mailboxes in a month, at most. Summers hasn’t even started to connect with most of the district, and a month is far too little time to whittle away at Kerr’s lead. Summers has been out walking, but there’s no way he’ll have canvassed as many homes as Kerr’s mail pieces, not to mention the Democrat’s strong and sustained volunteer field efforts. It wouldn’t make a difference if Summers were to spend all $82,000 in his campaign coffers on outreach at this point. Because he hasn’t even made a first impression on many of the district’s voters, saturating SD-22 now won’t boost his profile meaningfully.

Summers may be planning for a late-campaign television blitz. He’s got plenty for a cable advertisement — he’ll only after to buy in one zone — but, effective as TV may be, there are so many ads inundating sets right now that Summers’ spots for a local seat may be drowned out by the noise from the presidential race. Television in a local campaign is most powerful when paired with a robust field and mail effort; voters hear your name on the air and then remember you when they’re contacted again. Summers hasn’t raised enough to afford both television and direct mail on his own, however.

A few conclusions can be drawn from Summers’ strategy at this juncture. The Republican may have good reason to believe that independent expenditure groups will swoop in and dramatically supplement his campaign efforts at the last minute. He also might have purchased direct mail services and is waiting to pay his bill and report those expenditures until he has a better feel for how much will have to come out of his coffers.

Or, perhaps, Summers just doesn’t have the desire, know-how, or tenacity to run the campaign he needs to in order to win this seat. Although Summers has never had a real opponent before, it’s unlikely Republicans would allow him to run such an abysmal race.

But it’s certainly not impossible.

Have you received a mail or walk piece from the Kerr or Summers campaign? E-mail us: info(at)jeffcopols.com.

Ryan Opposes Tax Shelters for Rich, but What About Romney’s Off-shore Accounts?

(Oh, well, there’s that, um… – promoted by Colorado Pols) Brandon Rittiman’s six-and-a-half minute interview with Paul Ryan on 9news’ Your Show last week raised more questions than it answered.  Not that Rittiman didn’t try his hardest.   But reporters who encounter Ryan further on down the campaign trail should press him for more details. […]

This Is What a “Convention Bounce” Looks Like

The Los Angeles Times confirms analysis from our readers Friday: President Obama’s post-convention “bounce” continued to grow Saturday, as new polls showed him widening a lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Obama’s lead over Romney among registered voters grew to 49%-45% in Gallup’s tracking poll. The 49% for Obama was his highest point in the […]

When They Can’t Admit What Everybody Knows

Of the many snippets we were forwarded this week about Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler’s latest attempt to challenge the citizenship of voters he “believes” may not be legally registered–a campaign headed for failure as the results appear to make a joke of Gessler’s dire predictions–this audio of an exchange between Deputy Secretary of […]

What The Hell Is Scott Gessler Thinking?

UPDATE: For what it’s worth, the Durango Herald’s Joe Hanel Tweets from the RNC: —– After days of press about Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler’s unswerving focus on tracking down and purging from the rolls what appears to be a tiny number–if any at all–of improperly registered noncitizen voters, Colorado Public Radio’s Megan Verlee […]

Recent Polling Shows…Eh, Whatever

Democrat Brandon Shaffer is doing his dardnest to make a race out of his challenge to incumbent Republican Rep. Cory Gardner in CD-4. But as we’ve said in this space before, the makeup of the district leaves little room for a potential Shaffer upset. That doesn’t mean that Shaffer’s team can’t try to show some […]

When Brownie tells us to vote for Romney, what will Sirota say?

If you listened to progressive talk-radio host David Sirota and conservative Michael Brown on the radio, before they were paired up on KHOW’s new afternoon talk show, you know that Brown was very much pro-Romney, pro-Republican Party. But you might not know whether Sirota would vote for Obama at all. So you wonder, how will […]

What’s Up with Claudette?

I wrote about the shootings in Aurora in my Free Press article scheduled to come out on Friday, so I won’t be commenting much about it here. I met with an oncologist last Thursday. We are looking at a very aggressive treatment plan that includes chemo-therapy starting on July 27, to be followed by radiation […]

Aurora Shootings: What Victim’s Families Want to Tell You But Can’t

((I was ready to unload my anger and passions on this site today. Nancy’s diary made me delay that…for at least a few hours.) – promoted by SSG_Dan) Update: In response to the information that Westboro Baptist Church may be coming to Denver to protest the funerals and memorials of the victims, this is the […]

Salazar, Udall: What The ACA Means For Colorado

( – promoted by Colorado Pols) Obama Administration Regional Director in Health and Human Services, Marguerite Salazar, was in Denver Monday to discuss the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or “Obamacare”) and what it means for people living in Colorado. Hosted by Senator Mark Udall, she held a press conference with the Colorado Consumer Health Initiative’s […]

What Planet Does Colorado GOP Chairman Ryan Call Live On?

From an absurd fluff piece in the Durango Herald Saturday, we must conclude…not this planet: Social issues won’t be winning elections this year, and Colorado’s Republican Party chairman knows that… The Hispanic vote will play a major role in the election this year, especially in swing states such as Colorado and Nevada where that demographic […]

What if Silverman had asked, “Hey Mike, any plans to talk to Kyle Clark at 9News?”

( – promoted by Colorado Pols) During their final, good-bye broadcast Friday, Craig Silverman and Dan Caplis thanked Rep. Mike Coffman for “being a real friend of the show” and for being “accessible.” Caplis told Coffman, “You never ever ducked us,” which definitely ain’t what 9News and other media types have been saying lately about […]

Joe Coors: not a beer! But what is he?

(Joe Coors falls victim to a self-inflicted meme – promoted by Colorado Pols) Ever since I first saw Joe Coors’ “not a beer” ad, I’ve been trying to finish the sentence for him. Joe Coors is not a beer, that’s established. But what is he? Is he a Pabst Blue Ribbon? There are those who […]

BREAKING: What a Difference 12 Hours Makes: Governor Declares Special Session.

BREAKING, per Lynn Bartels: Governor Hickenlooper to call for a special session; the agenda includes civil unions. Livestream of the Governor’s Press Conference beginning at 1:45pm here. At the same time, President Barack Obama just announced he now favors gay marriage. When it rains, it pours. From the Huffington Post. From Colorado’s State Constitution, Article […]

WOW………………What a President…………What a gamble!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just finished watching Brian Williams’ 60 minute program on NBC, covering the remarkable Seal Team Mission that got Bin Laden. The greatest single military achievement since the Doolittle Raid. This doesn’t have to be partisan, and the entire hour was totally non partisan. The details and the drama, the emotions and the professionalism of a […]

What’s In That Fabled “GOP Dream Act?”

Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times reports: With Republicans increasingly concerned about losing Hispanic voters this November, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida on Thursday pressed his party to embrace a compromise measure allowing young illegal immigrants a pathway to legal status… “Mitt Romney is the leader of the Republican Party now. Our hope is […]

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