U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) A. Gonzalez
(D) George Stern
(R) Sheri Davis
50%↑
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 22, 2008 11:47 PM UTC
35 Comments
Another story about the Republicans pulling out.
Whatever happened to “stay the course”?
that they aren’t pulling out prematurely. We know how messy that gets!
Time to move on.
That is a mental picture I do not want to have about Marilyn Muskox.
The only worse picture is: sliding in, in the first place.
I used that phrase in the thread about the conception is life. Pretty disgusting, eh?
MM….Ooooooo!
1. Has anyone seen polling numbers since the Emily’s List poll in late September?
2. Should Markey win who will run? I think it will be a bitter primary featuring Ken Buck, Marc Hillman, Cory Gardner. Not to mention Bob Schaffer trying to return from the political dead
3. Is the pullout in CD 4 indicative of an overall GOP pullout meaning no money for McCain, Schaffer or Musgrave in the final twelve days?
If Markey pulls this off, she will get a plum committee assignment, key bills to sponsor and the DCCC will pour tons of cash into this seat. Buck, Hillman or Gardner don’t stand a chance. Not to mention the fact that re-districting occurs in 2010 and Dems will Gerrymander the hell out of CD-4 so if fully benefits a Markey re-election campaign.
Repubs are generally overconfident in their ability to win in Colorado. Newsflash R’s: you’re losing ground by the minute right now and CD-4 should be the one of the last races on your minds right now. NRCC did the right thing here.
Ds will try their damnest to gerrymander the fourth but they can’t do it until 2012. You have to have the 2010 census first. And a successful gerrymander assumes the Ds keep control of both houses of the lege in the 2010 election (House likely, Senate a bit less so) as well as the Gov. (less than 50/50 at this time but see who the rs nominate.)
Still the power of incumbency is awesome and if (and I do mean IF) markey squeaks in this time, I’d make her a 60/40 favorite in 2010. Constituent service and the franking privilege are huge advantages. And presumably she won’t piss off Tim Gill and guarantee millions in negative ads every election the way Marilyn did.
…is that what you said?
Who’s his likely opponent?
Schaffer?
The R’s will contest it much more then they are the 3rd. The 4th is pretty red, making Musgrave’s continued weakness there all the more pronounced
I think Gardner/Hillman/Schaffer(?)/Buck will try to outflank each other to the right and if Markey just runs down the center (make a couple of right votes–I recommend an pro NRA position so that she can get the NRA incumbant endorsement–to counter left votes) They won’t stand a chance.
would give Markey real job security. Ask John Salazar!
Somewhere nice, too. You know Denver well. You can pick. 🙂
I think whom ever the party chair is at the time will try and clear the way, but there will probably be two people who run for the Republican nod. I’d say Gardner and Buck would probably be the front runners, just because if we get our tails kicked, we’re probably going to be looking for someone new.
I think either of them would be able to present themselves as the type of conservative that fits CD 4
Dude, let’s see the letter. Enuf of this he said she said. If you’ve got the goods, show ’em.
Lets see some documentation…
PDF!
….who were the victim of multiple early withdrawls:
DENVER – Two of the biggest spenders in Colorado’s political world the last few months are pulling their resources out of the state for the last week before the election.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) each informed Colorado television stations, including 9NEWS and My20, that they would not be advertising from Oct. 28 to Nov. 4.
http://www.9news.com/news/loca…
Because Udall is so far ahead 🙂
Yes, yes, I know – I’m a bit of an optimist. But did anyone think it was going to go this bad for the Republicans in this state? They’re giving up on everything. And Lamborn has been ignored, granted because they figure he’s safe.
But… What if? It’s 2 weeks away and Schaffer & Musgrave are down so much that the national party has given up on both. Hal could win – and wouldn’t that be a neat treat.
No, never, I’m sorry. The phrase “Hal could win” is even contradictory by itself. He might be able to finish within 10 points — that would be huge by itself — but that’s about as close as he’ll be able to get.
because everyone wants at least one of the people they vote for to win, and there aren’t many indicators that senator McCain or Mr. Schaffer will fill that role.
Nobody has been spending big money for Bidlack. And the fact that the DCCC hasn’t been spending money on Bidlack should tell you everything you need to know – they look at poll numbers before they make a decision on spending money.
…and most of them still can’t stand him. LtCol Hal is not an ordinary Dem – he’s a weird mix of Federalist and Progressive.
As one Florida friend of mine described Colorado, “it’s the most liberal conservative state I’ve lived in.” THAT’S Hal.
If he could get his spots on the air, and tell the district his story (25 year AF Career, instructor on the Constitution at AFA, IN THE PENTAGON on 9/11) and hear his platform (support the Constitution, take care of vets, gun rights first) he’s stop Doug into a bloody pulp.
Esp when it comes out that the Good Representative from Colo Springs has NEVER been to a deployment, re-deployment, family support group meeting or funeral on Ft Carson or Peterson AFB, and voted against the new GI Bill along with all the other Colo Repubs.
Hal hasn’t been running the type of campaign he needs to run to make this seat competitive.
Where is his message? Where were his chaser pieces that followed the absentee ballots on October 10th? Where are his commericials? Radio spots? Street canvassers? Yard signs?
If I were a Democrat running for this seat, I would have needed to start running ads two months ago to start making the case that Lamborn is ineffective and a placeholder, and that as a Democrat I would be better suited to work to get results for the district.
Hal hasn’t done anything. How can you win when you don’t do anything?
…the problem with Dr Dean’s 50 state strategy is that its not a 453 House seat strategy. It seems the national party has written off CD5 as unwinnable, and directed fire at Musgrave.
Not that the RNCC is fleeing in the night, maybe some money will flow to Hal. Crap, it’s cheap to run a spot in the Springs…
Good God, man, it’s not the Politburo. There’s no reason every seat needs to be held by one party.
Even in an historic realignment, like we may be facing, the 5th CD is not something the DCCC is going to spend any money on.
The 3rd and 7th were evenly split between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliateds, and both had retiring incumbents — so were prime targets. The 4th has been represented by a weak, divisive and provocative incumbent (and has much better numbers than the 5th or 6th), so is a fair shot.
But just as the Republicans stopped trying to snag the 1st or 2nd CDs sometime in the ’70s — even at the height of the Reagan Revolution and Gingrich Take-over — Democrats realize the 5th is staying Republican this year and will spend their money where it can help win, not just make people feel better about fighting the good fight.
It’s not unheard of for the DCCC to spend money in the 5th — they spend in the low six-figures in 2006 (and the RNCC spent in the mid-six figures to counter, along with a last-minute visit from Dick Cheney).
And to respond to Haners, Bidlack has been on television in the Colo Spgs market for two-three weeks now. Driving around the 5th, I see tons of Bidlack yard signs; I’ve only seen a handful of Lamborn signs, and they’re usually the big 4x8s on vacant lots.
Look, I’m not saying its going to happen — I’m a realist. But if there ever were a year when it could happen, 2008 is that kind of year. Lamborn has been running a much more complacent campaign than in 2006, and Bidlack has been running about the best campaign that could be expected in these circumstances.
Indeed, if it happens, it will happen in a manner much like this year. Remember that in 2006, two polls showed the race in the 5th tied one month out from the election. That spurred Lamborn and the GOP into action; they spent well over a half-million dollars to shore up the race and attack Jay Fawcett. (I also credit that move as one of the last nails in the coffin of Rick O’Donnell, as they had to move $$$ from the 7th to the 5th to protect the 5th.)
This year, you don’t have any real polling going on in the 5th — it is not on the radar screen, much like the New Hampshire race that shocked everybody in 2006 when GOP Rep. Jeb Bradley lost to a then-unknown Democrat in a GOP district. In a way, I’m kinda glad that the DCCC and RNCC haven’t spent in the 5th yet. If they had, it would wake a giant in the 5th that is currently sleeping.
I spend most of my time in the Briargate area and the powers area. I suspect you’re seeing those signs downtown?
They’ve done more for her than they promised; she wasn’t able to seal the deal, and they’ve got more immediate problems – like John Shadegg’s seat in Arizona, and Bill Sali’s seat in Idaho (SUSA puts the Dem ahead in an R+19 district today), and Doolittle’s open seat in California…