CO-04 (Special Election) See Full Big Line

(R) Greg Lopez

(R) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Biden*

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%↓

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

(R) Ron Hanks

40%

30%

20%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(R) Deborah Flora

(R) J. Sonnenberg

30%↑

15%↑

10%↓

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Dave Williams

(R) Jeff Crank

50%↓

50%↑

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

90%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) Brittany Pettersen

85%↑

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

(R) Janak Joshi

60%↑

35%↓

30%↑

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

February 23, 2023 11:12 AM UTC

Sabato's Crystal Ball Pegs Colorado's Top 2024 Races

1 Comments
by: Colorado Pols

Lauren Boebert sweating potential defeat on Election Night 2022.

In the battle for the U.S. House majority in 2024, political prognosticator of record Larry Sabato says the initial landscape is a tossup–an easy call to make in a chamber where a tiny majority flipping between the sides is the general rule. Major unknown variables in the presidential race make hard predictions more than a year and a half out from the election speculative at best. But in Colorado, Sabato has the two most competitive congressional races “leaning” toward the incumbents:

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R, CO-3), an in-your-face conservative who only barely won in a clearly GOP-leaning district in western Colorado, has not moderated her behavior at all in the aftermath of her near-loss. [Pols emphasis] But observers on both sides of the aisle think she should be favored anyway because a more engaged and larger 2024 presidential electorate could help her stabilize her vote. This is something we sometimes hear from operatives: Near-miss upsets can occur precisely because a race isn’t heavily engaged with national money, perhaps lulling an incumbent (and maybe even voters themselves) into a false sense of security…

In the respective Leans columns, we gave the benefit of the doubt to a handful of incumbents, including Reps. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) and Tom Kean Jr. (R, NJ-7) on the GOP side and Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D, CO-8) and Gabe Vasquez (D, NM-2) on the Democratic. The former pair will likely have to create some distance between themselves and the GOP presidential nominee in their blue-trending districts, but Bacon has shown the ability to do that and Kean may be able to after knocking off Tom Malinowski (D) last cycle. Caraveo and Vasquez overcame a tricky political environment to each snatch surprising albeit narrow victories. With Democrats likely to carry their districts for president again, we give them an edge to start. [Pols emphasis]

Although both Democratic CD-8 Rep. Yadira Caraveo and CD-3 Rep. Lauren Boebert are in districts Sabato considers leaning toward their respective parties, there’s a very big difference between Caraveo’s strength in her closely divided district versus Boebert’s struggles in an ostensibly R+9 partisan leaning CD-3. Boebert has underperformed relative to the district’s partisan breakdown in two consecutive general elections, effectively negating the district’s built-in GOP advantage in the 2022 election decided by only 546 votes. When Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene says Boebert doesn’t have the support in her own district to engage in shenanigans like the scrambling of Kevin McCarthy’s confirmation, this is what she’s talking about.

As for the effect the presidential race in 2024 will have on these down-ballot contests, we’re inclined to agree that Caraveo will be helped by the Democratic presidential leanings in her district. The much greater potential for divisive chaos in the Republican presidential primary–assuming the resurgent Joe “Dark Brandon” Biden runs again as expected–makes predicting the impact of that race on Boebert’s future much more difficult. What we can say is that Boebert’s continuing vulnerability requires a bigger investment than Republicans should have to make to hold this seat. It’s up to not just Boebert’s constituents but also Republican donors to decide whether what they get back from Boebert is worth the investment.

Two races with similar ratings, but under the hood very different dynamics at work.

One thought on “Sabato’s Crystal Ball Pegs Colorado’s Top 2024 Races”

Early Worm says:

February 23, 2023 at 12:00 pm

At the risk of sounding extremely naive, it may also be difficult to handicap these races because the voters in the respective district may be waiting to see if their elected representative does a good job: representing, legislating, constituent services, and communicating. I believe that Boebert had difficulty in 2022 precisely because, partisan agenda aside, she is not very good at the job. If she does better, she may have an easier time at reelection. If Caraveo does a good job, I imagine the swing voters will vote for her, regardless of their presidential preference.

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Sabato's Crystal Ball Pegs Colorado's Top 2024 Races

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One thought on “Sabato’s Crystal Ball Pegs Colorado’s Top 2024 Races”

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