U.S. Senate
See Full Big Line
(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
See Full Big Line
(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
See Full Big Line
(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
See Full Big Line
(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
See Full Big Line
(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
See Full Big Line
(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
See Full Big Line
(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
See Full Big Line
(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
See Full Big Line
(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
See Full Big Line
(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
See Full Big Line
(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
See Full Big Line
DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 16, 2012 03:54 PM UTC
80 Comments
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…
Shocked Democrats will no doubt react, some may continue the bitter dialogue hosted by Obama-Biden 2012, while many others will no doubt join this falls teaching moment as we attempt to unify American and move forward.
what is Davis saying in those quoted sections that’s not implied by your David sig line? Are you sure you understand what Mahrer is saying?
…that the Obama administration incompetence is a reason to vote Republican. Yes the Obama administration has done a poor job – but poor beats awful any day of the week. I just don’t think we should pretend that the Obama administration is doing a great job.
Or to put it another way, I list why I’m disappointed.
We know elections turn on motivating your base, whoever that may be, and the persuaded middle. In presidential campaigns, a candidate is just not going to get much of the opposition base.
And the way to motivate the base and persuade the middle is …..MESSAGING.
So- my way says: figure out which candidate you prefer to win. Come up with messaging that motivates that candidate’s base and persuades as many middle voters as possible.
Then go do voter reg and GOTV.
My way wins.
Your way , apparently, is to decide which candidate you prefer to win, figure out what’s wrong with that candidate and include that in your messaging in the hopes that a) your candidate will somehow improve on that weakness or b) demonstrate your intellectual and political superiority by acknowledging your candidate’s weakness.
Your way loses about as much as it wins. (Gore, Kerry, Bush Sr, Ford, Carter,….. who all won more than they lost- but still lost in the end)
Politics is hardball.
If I know the hitter likes to take big swings at low curve balls in the dirt. That’s all he sees.
If my guy is at bat, and I know he likes the high fastball- I tell him to wait until he sees it. Otherwise , shut up and look good in the box.
Now- the baseball metaphor only goes so far.
But, godddammmit – once we got the messaging, candidates and campaigns must stay on message.
If the candidates are perceived as weak on something- that’s not part of the message, they can change tack and neutralize that weakness, or thy can attack the opponent on their own strengths.
I want to WIN. +270, baby all day long.
You want to make point. Your way is great for dilettantes and academics.
My way wins.
So you can take your disappointment (which is wrong anyway) and blow it out your ass cause if you lose, you’re going to need the space for the unpleasantness that will surely follow.
David gets to be proven right no matter what happens in the election. It’s a coping strategy, the only way to deal with how wrong he is all the time.
Or do you prefer the full obi-wan kenobi?
But it leaves one giant question. How do we pressure them to improve? Take Senator Bennet as an example. Is he worlds better than Ken Buck? Absolutely. Was it a win by the skin of our teeth which took everything we had? Absolutely.
But what are we left with? A Senator who has sold himself out to Wall St, Hollywood, and anyone else who writes large campaign checks. On the Internet blackout day he was one of the few who remained in favor of SOPA/PIPA (give him credit where credit is due – when he’s bought, he stays bought).
So is this what we have to settle for? Better than the Republican but still will only address the problems we face within what his financial backers allow?
I’m not sure what the answer is, but I don’t think giving them a free pass is going to improve things. I’m definitely open to ideas.
ps – I don’t think President Obama is owned by Wall St. I’ll speak to that in my next reply below.
Just keep telling yourself that.
If you start pretending it’s true, and acting accordingly, it may eventually become true.
Pick a winner. Win.
Then figure out what comes next.
You want a candidate who thinks just like you – run.
Let’s use Senator Bennet as an example. We got him elected. But he’s still fully owned by those who gave him the big bucks. How do we change that?
1) talk to him.
2) contact his office.
3) make a compelling argument.
4) elect someone else next time.
Back that up.
as being such a large step from “incompetent” (a harsh and wholey undeserved epithet, btw) and with good intentions, to hopeless maybe it’s time to try something different. I know you’re just being pissy and self-righteous, but for many if you’re already at “incompetent” today, why hope for something different tomorrow?
Nuance is a nasty bitch, Davis . . . er, I mean, David.
First off, I think President Obama and the people around him wanted to improve the economy. Very much so. And I don’t think they were held back by Wall St, campaign contributors, or anything else like that.
I used to be more at your point of view. But the more I read about what they did and did not do to address the economy, the more I think incompetent is a fair description.
I also think after about 12 months they put the economy aside and concentrated on HCR. HCR was important but so was the economy and we need a president that can do more than one big thing at a time. In today’s world we probably need one that can do 5 big things at a time.
Being President is a really hard job. There are very few people who can do it well. And some of Obama’s weaknesses speak well of him as a human being. But I think the bottom line is he has pretty much left the economy to flounder the last couple of years.
And for the first year he and his team (and it was much more Geitner, Summers, & Bernanke than Obama making the key decisions) made a lot of fundamentally bad decisions. Any team will make some bad decisions. But they made a lot.
As you say, nuance is a bitch. As I learn more that might change my opinion (up or down). But my more recent reading has pretty much reinforced the well meaning but really bad decision making that has been reported to date.
How would you describe the efforts so far?
to answer your question. And, I know what you want — you’re an idealist. I am too, sometimes, about some things — I’m still looking for that Reuben sandwich, btw. In the meantime and until that day, however, I’ll eat the ruebens I’m served. No sense going hungry out of spite. Anyway, I’m under no delusion that little old me is going to be able to pressure any restaurant into hiring a better cook because of my affectations.
Who was it that used to regularly opine here that “we suck less” wasn’t much of a winning campaign theme? Do you think, “Vote for my guy — he may be incompetent, but at least he’s not fucking awful” makes that much of a better message? (See David, honestly, I have a problem — my memory . . . and it’s way, way better than your consistency.)
There’s a time and a season for everything, and this is campaign season. Get over yourself.
We won’t need to worry about pressuring anyone to do anything if we don’t get them elected first. And of course the dynamic of a second term, once elected to one, in an office with a two term limit is going to be different from a first term, regardless, even without valiant Dave bravely whining for more excellence.
We should probably give up on this argument with Dave. For him, it’s entirely Dave-centric. He doesn’t seem to have noticed that Obama has already pivoted away from please won’t somebody compromise with me mode to taking unilateral action wherever he can in the face of the GOP wall of obstruction. Nope.
For Dave it’s all about look at me being principled and idealistic, not to mention the world’s greatest boss (actually gets mentioned a lot), best dad to best kids and with the world’s coolest Republican mom. It’s Dave world and the rest of us are just here to recognize his general swellness.
That Obama has started to fight for us because of the many dissatisfied voters in his base?
execrable negotiating strategy on health care in the first place. Thing is, you are still going on as if nothing has changed. Also reread part about seasons, this being election season. If you aren’t helping get Obama re-elected you’re helping get Romney elected. At this point in time, your continued refusal to credit progress and accomplishments and shift gears helps Romney. Period. If that’s your goal fine. If not it’s pretty stupid.
That’s an impressive spewing of venom in that 3rd paragraph.
That’s pretty fair assessment of how your writing expresses you on CoPols.
You don’t like it?
1) write different.
2) be different
If you aren’t suitably impressed by his ineffable Daveness, well you just must be bitter about something.
but DT has never seen it
Just wanted to put that in boldface. Can’t be emphasized too much. Thanks, Dio.
Although, I thought . . .
. . . was probably the portion that most needed emphasis.
Anyway, as someone noted above . . .
. . . is an unanswered question. Can Eeyore be changed into Tigger?
http://www.coloradopols.com/sh… – Because once the campaign is over, they tend to go back to business as usual.
you’re starting to sound just like my wife. Well I got news for you honey, it’s been nearly thirty years and I’m 50+something and I’m old and I’m tired and I ain’t changing no more, dammit. Too late. You’re stuck with this model, baby — no more effin’ upgrades. You want change? Here, here’s four quarters — go call your Mom . . . ask her how long it took to beat down your Dad; ask her how often he remembers to put down the toilet seat . . .
. . . Whoa . . . Uh, Sorry, man. . . . bad flashback . . . now where were we? Oh, yeah — “change.” Ain’t going to happen; you’re not ever going to change anyone.* The President is not one of your interns that you’re going to motivate post-hire into showing up for work five minutes early. In politics you get what you vote for, that’s it. Out of the box. No substitutions. No “hold the mayo.” No “dressing on the side, please.” No “have it your way.” None of that stuff, capiche?
So I say unto thee again: get over yourself. The season of campaign is nigh at hand.
*(Oh, that asterisk?, you ask — not a 100%, universal, for-all-times-and-ever-after truth. You can actually change someone — yourself. You can get over yourself. Thinking you can change anyone else, however, is pretty much just an exercise in self-showering in the wind. Do you need a shower?)
{snicker}
si
I wouldn’t bother voting. If we’re not going to see improvement, then it’s not worth the effort.
enjoy your shower.
Someday your sig line may get all the Presidential attention it deserves . . .
would you also stop posting?
Oh, I doubt that. Not without redefining that word to mean about 1% of the US population.
For any of you that are considering working in the start-up world, I wrote 2 posts about how to try it out. And if the start-up world is a good fit for you (it’s not for everyone), this is the way to find out.
How to Land a Great Internship Next Summer
Startup Internships — What’s In It for Me?
Colorado does not have this type of Voter ID law. But,
PA is a swing state and has gone Democrat since 1988.
The danger is that this law could cost Obama the election, by suppressing the democratic vote in PA. Pay attention.
This, my friends, is why 2010 was SO important. The republicans had a strategy of capturing the states’ elective offices and moving forward to make it more difficult for traditional democratic groups to vote. Their strategy looks successful.
http://www.philly.com/philly/n…
Republicans had a relatively easy time of it in PA at the state level in 2010. The Dem governor candidate wasn’t all that good, and voters were fatigued from Gov. Rendell’s questionable handling of the state. The state is, sadly, a lot more conservative than most people give it credit for; in some ways it’s a lot like Colorado – split legislature, a history of voting in Republican state office holders… The difference is that Colorado is trending blue, while Pennsylvania I think is either treading water or trending reddish.
you gotta take the T. The T being the south central and entire northern rural conservative areas excluding Philly and Pittsburgh.
You probably already knew that anyway.
Rendell got in pretty much with the city vote, and not overly offending too many of the rural types. But he was the Philly machine.
I think the key in PA now is moving toward winning Pittsburgh voters; they’re a traditionally D audience, but they’re also more conservative than the Philly crowd. Lately the GOP has been making a play at at least not losing Pittsburgh so badly, while consolidating the T vote.
I think its a pretty old saying
That is necessary to overcome the redneck middle.
The voter ID law strikes at the heart of the democratic vote in Philly. That is the problem.
If your candidates and policies suck resort to nasty undemocratic tricks, both in Colorado and in PA. Its the Republican way.
I agree with you that the PA voter ID ruling sucks. I can’t understand how the judge managed to rule that the state suffered irreparable harm if the law was enjoined, but that those who would have a hard time getting IDs by November wouldn’t. Hopefully on appeal?
I sure as hell hope so.
CO-06: Here’s DFA’s other poll, of CO-06, where Democratic state Rep. Joe Miklosi, a guy liked by a lot of progressive organizations, is looking to unseat GOP sophomore Mike Coffman in a seat that was made significantly bluer during redistricting (from McCain +7 to Obama +9). The numbers, again from PPP, show Coffman edging Miklosi 40-36, though a sizable chunk of the vote is taken up by two third-party candidates: independent Kathy Polhemus (5%) and Libertarian Patrick Provost (4%). The presidential toplines show Obama at exactly his 2008 margin, beating Mitt Romney 52-43. PPP’s statewide Colorado polling has shown Obama fairly close to his 2008 performance, so those district-level figures seem plausible.
also shows a big block of “don’t knows” probably because so many have never heard of Miklosi. He’ll need gazillions in funds to correct that problem. Will he be seen as having enough of a shot to get mega bucks? Probably not with more swingy, close districts all over the country to fund. It sure would be the upset of the century, though. A first for CD6.
Miklosi’s ground game trumps Coffman’s hired guns. Jump in and help with a few bucks and a few emails to friends. We can do this. wwwJoeMiklosi.com.
Thanks for being there on the front lines. Our problem is that, we are not constituents and don’t know anyone in the new district that is not a coffman guy…it is the old military brotherhood
some are knee jerk R voters.
The better informed realize that Perlmutter has done more for CO vets than our own rep ever has.
Joe had a very solid fundraising quarter.
If the DCCC runs ads attacking Coffman we know it is game on. The same in CD 3 until the DCCC steps up it is all just talk
if only to close the gap and get mega-targeting for a strong candidate next time. But if you’ve been around the block as many times as I have in CD6 (yes I know it’s a different CD6 but even so this time) you know that no amount of ground game gets the name rec a Dem challenger needs to get over the top.
Strong ground game great and worthwhile. But without the big targeting bucks, not enough. We need lots and lots of national money.
Unless the DCCC and others come in with a big media buy Joe and Sal have no chance. The DCCC is beginning to run ads around the country and I will be curious to see if they run ads for Perlmutter, Miklosi, Pace or none of the above. Perlmutter seems to be smoking Coors btw.
For all the Tea Party Ryan lovers, your boy is just another slick pol:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
Not just any stim funds. Green energy stim funds. Horrors!
unless its in my district.
Ryan’s district has some archaic businesses.
ANd infrastructure
Defeated in the primary by a tea partyer.
Democratic wisdom is that these right wing candidates make it easier to win the seat in the general. I don’t know. I hate the overconfidence.
Former WWE exec Linda McMahon doesn’t have the base of Rep. Shays. I think it will be easier for Rep. Murphy to win the seat against McMahon. But there will be lots of WWE smackdown money thrown around by the GOP; hopefully no chairs, though!
The problem is that both parties trade winning elections. If I have a moderate Democrat and moderate Republican trading, I can live with that, and base my vote on other issues, like competence, etc. But with a far-right cuckoo clock in the mix, then Republican victories, when they come, are accompanied by vast damage to the body politic.
But it is what it is, so let’s root for Murphy now.
When he won the Republican primary for Senate, Dems cheered thinking it would help them pick up Bunning’s senate seat because Paul was too crazy, too far to the right, to win a state-wide election.
Worked out pretty well, didn’t it…
because Rand Paul won the nomination in Kentucky, a safe red state. It’s not El Paso County on a state scale, but it’s still a place where the primary matters more than the general.
I’m basing my assertions on my recollections – if I’m getting anything wrong, please correct me.
Everyone knew Rand Paul would win. They did not want him to, but it was pretty much accepted.
You seem to have most of your arguments with people who don’t exist about things they haven’t said. Saying something tends to work out better for one side or the other in general is a far cry from “OK everybody. No sweat. This will be a cake walk”.
And overconfidence is just one item on a long list of things you hate, a list that includes pretty much everything but certain doom. You seem to love that. So here’s hoping that your most cherished expectations are disappointed.
Think about this before voting the Anti-vet Romney/Ryan ticket, which plans to cut $11billion from the VA’s budget (just when troops are coming home) AND wants to exclude VA healthcare to only those vets with a VA disability rating…the one that takes 1-2 years to get.
http://www.theonion.com/articl…
And he’s got a few days before he hits the sand- he should pick a city and a bridge or two in that city to live under when he gets back.
Denver has a lot of bridges, but that no camping thing is a little tricky.
SF has fewer bridges- and it’s really cold. But theres lots of street fairs.
Phoenix is hell on earth – to be avoided.
I’ve not been, but people say Miami is good- but big bugs and rats
Per the Arapahoe County clerk’s website this morning.
Active voters:
GOP 88,083
DEM 78,472
Ouch.
A silver lining: only 57% of voting age residents are registered to vote.
Bottom line — We need to redouble our voter registration efforts in Arapahoe County (and, maybe the entire state).
Voterreg! Voterreg!Voterreg! Voterreg!
Voterreg! Voterreg!Voterreg! Voterreg!Voterreg! Voterreg!
oh and….
Voterreg! Voterreg!Voterreg! Voterreg!
According to this article on HuffPo, the rate of flip-flops coming from Romney and his team regarding the Romney and Ryan budget “plans” (I use that term loosely) are now pretty much daily.
Now the word is, they are identical minus Ryan’s inclusion of the (to the GOP) problematic cost-bending agreement with hospitals, etc. to cut their unit costs in exchange for the expansion of their market by 32 million newly insured customers, resulting in a $716 billion deficit reduction with no cuts in benefits to Medicare users.
In Romney’s continuing game of “Opposites — I say one thing, the truth is the opposite”, AP reports:
Opposing the cost-bending provision, besides providing Romney with a bogus talking point, serves another purpose. Should Romney somehow win the election, and repeal Obamacare, eliminating this provision would let Medicare costs resume their upward march, thus hastening it’s destruction, and by increasing the deficit by $716 billion (or more), give Republicans yet another reason to cut social programs for all but the ultra-wealthy and large corporations.
Your basic GOP win-win situation.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/…
And, will you get a brain?
Sometimes- pigs do fly.
And brains are found.
that’s where I go for the latest on Dem strategy.
My fiance and I both got forms in the mail earlier this week so we can sign up for permanent mail-in ballots. Neither one of us are signing up since we’re much better at taking a morning and going to the vote center than remembering to mail stuff.
I do have a question– I’ve signed up for an absentee ballot in the past and because I suck at mailing stuff, ended up having to take the thing in to the clerk’s office since I wasn’t in the poll book. I assume that a permanent mail-in status would also keep me from theoretically mailing my ballot in and also dropping by a polling place.
How does that work with the new procedure of not sending mail-in ballots to inactive voters? Do they update the database so that these folks can vote in person? Will they be prevented from voting unless they have the specific ballot that they never received?
For some reason, I’m picturing long lines at clerk’s offices with lots of people getting provisional ballots.
should still be in the database (it’s always worth checking, and if you’re doing that, you might as well activate). But once you’re registered and don’t do something like die or register somewhere else, you should be on the poll books forever, and can show up at your polling place and vote.
about people having their registrations purged. That’s easy enough to find and fix. I worry about the fact that signing up for a mail-in ballot makes you ineligible to vote in person. It works like that to avoid people voting more than once. The year I voted absentee, I was literally not in the poll book in my precinct– it was still a paper book in the polling place that year. It’s possible that the new computer system would’ve been able to look me up, with a little message flagged to not allow me to vote unless I was handing in my mail ballot.
If someone has chosen to receive a mail-in ballot, the system is set up so that the ballot they receive in the mail has to be the one turned in, either by mail or hand delivered to the clerk. What happens when your status lapses to “inactive- failed to vote” but you signed up for a permanent mail-in? In most counties, you won’t receive a ballot. Is the database changed so that you can vote in person?
What should happen is that everyone issued a mail ballot should be able to cast a provisional ballot at a polling place if you either don’t receive, lose or prefer not to cast the mail ballot. Provisional ballot results aren’t reported on election night, but they do count, if the clerk determines the ballot was properly cast. In this case, they would hang onto the provisional ballot and make sure that your mail ballot didn’t arrive and wasn’t counted, and then count the provisional ballot.
At this point, inactive voters won’t get mail ballots, so should be able to vote at a polling place (or early vote). What might change between now and the election is that inactive voters who are also on the permanent mail ballot list do wind up receiving ballots, and then the above scenario would apply.
But the statewide voter database should take care of the problem you describe with a voter left without a mail ballot and at the same time marked off the precinct list. Voter lists differentiate between permanent-mail voters and those who are actually issued mail ballots for a particular election.
Another solution to the potential problem you describe would be for the inactive-permanet-mail voter to activate, then that voter should receive a mail ballot. Then vote with that.
The devil is in all the “should”s.
http://www.funnyordie.com/vide…
Tweet from Primerica Founder:
Can’t believe no one beat me to this. Saw on the snooze four hours ago that he told an audience and reporters today that he’s paid about 13% for many years, but when you add his charitable contributions, it comes out at 24%. (IIRC)
Rmoneynomics!
While I think it’s wonderful that people give money to their faith bodies, to me it smacks of kinda econo-spiritual nepotism. Especially when it is effectively mandated, such as the LDS does.
“Hmmm…. I HAVE to tithe 10 percent? But then I also get a tax deduction? Cool!”