6 thoughts on “Ballot Return Update (Election Day)”

1. The 0.16% represents how Neuschwanger is stealing the election from Hiedi, just to clear things up.

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2. Do Unaffiliateds typically split 50/50?

   If so, then Dems are ahead 52.4 compared to Republicans at 47.6.

   Does anyone have historic comparison of ballots returned to election results that might show how Unaffs split? I’m not sure we get election day results showing Unaffs, but by that point everyone is looking at results, and not wondering such details. 

   Since these are actually returned ballots we have eliminated the 10% of un-commited. 

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   1. From 2008, 2012, 2016, 2018, in Colorado as a whole, U’s lean Dem by about 5 points. In red districts like CD4 or CD3, Us lean R by about 20 points, That’s what I recall, but can’t look up the source at the moment.

      Vox found U and I voters turning in 80% Dem ballots in the 2018 primary. https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/6/29/17509868/how-colorados-unaffiliated-voted
      So that would be a huge D advantage if that carries over into a midterm election.
      However, more U’s turned red than turned blue in 2022, per Fox. https://kdvr.com/news/like-u-s-colorado-has-gotten-more-republican-in-the-last-year/

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   2. 2018 election was followed almost immediately by a Magellan Strategies survey of 500 Unaffiliated voters.  Unaffiliated split 59-25 in the Governor's race, with the rest split between minor parties and undervotes.

      David Flaherty summarized it this way:

      The Extraordinary 2018 Election in Colorado

      This post-election survey of unaffiliated voters, along with observations of voter turnout in Colorado, can only be described as extraordinary. It was extraordinary because in the past 20 years never has one political party been so overwhelmingly rejected at every level of representative government by the electorate. It was extraordinary because unaffiliated voters, the largest and fastest growing affiliation in our state, participated in a mid-term election at a level that has never happened to before.

      Time will tell if the 2018 election was an acceleration of the Republican Party’s waning ability to win statewide elections in Colorado, or a sobering period of clarity that sparked a new direction for the GOP.

      In the survey findings,

      There is no question that Donald Trump had a negative impact on
      Republican candidates, with 34% of unaffiliated voters saying they were less
      likely to vote for a Republican candidate because of his influence. In
      addition, President Trump’s job approval among all unaffiliated voters is
      toxic, with only 31% approving of the job he is doing, 62% disapproving, and
      48% strongly disapproving of the job he is doing. …

      Unaffiliated voters supported Jared Polis because of his positions on education,
      healthcare and the environment. They also liked his business background and
      viewed him to be a more competent and qualified candidate compared to
      Walker Stapleton. Reasons some unaffiliated voters opposed Jared Polis were
      fears that he would raise taxes, increase government spending, and would be
      hostile to the oil and gas industry. ….

       

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3. 

   Replacing the useless pie chart above with a useful chart.

   Brought to you by the brilliant insight at Liberal & Loving It 

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4. So if someone high up in a campaign sees the the focus/messaging/spend is ineffective, will they speak out? Or will that be a career limiting move?

   From talking to a number of people I get the impression that a lot of what is said & done is because that's what has been said & done for the last 20 years.

   While business marketing is different from political marketing, I think it does hold in common that whatever worked even 5 years ago is unlikely to presently be the most effective now.

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