July 17, 2012 07:02 PM UTC

Latest "Purple Poll" Forecasts (Wait For It) Continued Tight Prez Race

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• by: Colorado Pols

The latest poll from Purple Strategies, one of a number of swing-state polls we’re following, shows a nominal 1-point tightening of what was in June a two-point race:

Purple Predictor States: Ohio swings back to Obama, Romney leads in Florida, and Colorado and Virginia remain as tight as can be.

Ohio has moved from one side to the other and back in our recent polling.  In April, we showed President Obama with a 5-point lead.  Last month, Mitt Romney held a 3-point lead. And today, we show President Obama taking a 3-point lead in this critical state (48% to 45%). This edge is fueled by independents, among whom he leads by 7 points (47% to 40%), as well as women (52% to 40%).

Not surprisingly, Obama comes out on top in Ohio and Virginia where his margin among women is higher than his deficit among men (it is even in Colorado), and Romney enjoys a robust advantage among male voters in Florida for the time being (54% to 37%).

Virginia – considered critical to both the Romney and Obama campaign – tilts slightly toward Obama at this stage (46% to 44%).  Obama also has the slightest edge in Colorado (45% to 44%). Importantly, independent voters in both states lean toward Romney by 6 points. Clearly, these Purple Predictor States remain up for grabs.

Also, the forecast today calls for a decent chance of rain and a high near 90.