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July 17, 2012 07:02 PM UTC

Latest "Purple Poll" Forecasts (Wait For It) Continued Tight Prez Race

  • 13 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

The latest poll from Purple Strategies, one of a number of swing-state polls we’re following, shows a nominal 1-point tightening of what was in June a two-point race:

Purple Predictor States: Ohio swings back to Obama, Romney leads in Florida, and Colorado and Virginia remain as tight as can be.

Ohio has moved from one side to the other and back in our recent polling.  In April, we showed President Obama with a 5-point lead.  Last month, Mitt Romney held a 3-point lead. And today, we show President Obama taking a 3-point lead in this critical state (48% to 45%). This edge is fueled by independents, among whom he leads by 7 points (47% to 40%), as well as women (52% to 40%).

Not surprisingly, Obama comes out on top in Ohio and Virginia where his margin among women is higher than his deficit among men (it is even in Colorado), and Romney enjoys a robust advantage among male voters in Florida for the time being (54% to 37%).

Virginia – considered critical to both the Romney and Obama campaign – tilts slightly toward Obama at this stage (46% to 44%).  Obama also has the slightest edge in Colorado (45% to 44%). Importantly, independent voters in both states lean toward Romney by 6 points. Clearly, these Purple Predictor States remain up for grabs.

Also, the forecast today calls for a decent chance of rain and a high near 90.

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13 thoughts on “Latest “Purple Poll” Forecasts (Wait For It) Continued Tight Prez Race”

  1. The latest Rasmussen sez Obama is underwater by 150 bajillion points. He couldn’t get elected dog catcher in Boulder.

    /Libertad (I’m doing it so he don’t have to)

      1. Independents have another reason to support Obama and a Democratic Congress:

        Forty-four percent of people in a new Pew Research Center poll said that a tax increase on incomes over $250,000, which is what President Obama and congressional Democrats are pushing, would help the economy, while 22 percent said it would hurt the economy.

        Similarly, 41 percent of Pew respondents said that raising taxes on income over $250,000 would make the tax system “more fair,” while 21 percent said it would make it “less fair”.

        The numbers are even more encouraging for Obama (and Democrats more broadly) among independents when it comes to ending the Bush tax cuts for income over $250,000. By a more than two-to-one margin – 41 percent to 18 percent – political independents believe ending the tax cuts would be helpful to the economy.

        Since this will be topping the news cycle for a few more months, you need to start working on new talking points 😉

        1. ….is that about 20% of the voters, presumably few uber-rich ones, actually support the plutocrats.

          Forty years of propaganda is paying off.

          Can you imagine people supporting such a position in the 1930’s?

          1. As I see it, Romney has a couple of ways to move the numbers back in his direction.  One way would be to have his billionaire supporters start creating a million or so $250k+ jobs.  That way, anything over the first $250k for these newly hired folks would get taxed a few extra bucks (so the more generous the billionaires, the greater the hatred for Obama) — that’ll get them into Romney’s camp for sure!  

            On the other hand, according to that poll, 7% already believe Romney supports eliminating the tax break above $250k.  Imagine what a boost he’d get if he actually did!  And I guarantee that would silence all the controversy over his Cayman Islands tax shelters and “Pain in the Bain” troubles.

            A twofer for Mitt!

        1. And the latest inconvenience…Just when Romney opens his mouth to attack Obama over the 2012 Olympic uniforms being made in China, turns out that when he headed the US Olympics, a much more hands on position than being President at the time the Olympics are taking place in another country, his buck stops here Olympic uniforms were made in Burma which, especially back then, made China look like a bastion of freedom and democracy.

          He should have had plenty of time to oversee something as major as the uniforms for the entire team since he swears he wasn’t doing anything at Bain during those years besides signing his name and taking his paycheck.  

          Another perfectly good attack line bites the dust. And not a peep out of ArapG for days about why all this is peachy for Romney.  

          Much more inclusive but not genrally quite so cheery for Romney poll numbers are always available at RealClear politics poll averages.

          1. Would now be a bad time to mention that Romney ‘saved’ the Olympics with 1.3 BILLION U.S. taxpayer dollars?  More than was spent on all previous Olympic games in America combined?

            “Oh, snap! . . . Someone quick, throw a little lifelike make-up on Pawlenty, and get his ass out on the road — now.”

      3. It starts with Bain commercials. And it ends with Newt, Perry, Herman Cain, and Palin commercials stating Romney is unfit to lead.

        Should have listened to Newt. Romney can’t win.

        He needs one hell of a VEEP, or it’ll be like Reagan vs. Mondale.

        1. You just proved you’re not serious. Mitt Romney may not ever win your vote, my Democrat friend, but he’s no damned Walter Mondale. Obama won’t carry any 49 states, no matter what happens.

  2. It’s safe to say that most, if not all those called did not know about the Bain revelation that came out on Friday (7/13), and that includes many of those who did respond on that last day. Not all of them would have been following the news that closely or immediately understanding of the gravity of the news.

    I wonder what the results would be if they were conducting that poll this week?

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