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October 04, 2022 08:33 AM UTC

Keating Poll: Lauren Boebert 47%, Adam Frisch 45%

  • 32 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Bill Kristol huffs the hopium:

Kristol, an avowed “never Trumper,” represents an older generation of conservatives who would breathe a genuine sigh of relief over Lauren Boebert’s ouster.

The question is, are there enough like him in today’s CD-3?

—–

Democratic CD-3 nominee Adam Frisch.

While you’ve been (rightly) focused on Colorado’s ticket-topping U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races and the state’s brand-new red-hot CD-8 race, over in scandalicious freshman GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert’s CD-3, Democratic challenger Adam Frisch has been plugging away largely with his own resources and moderate message–and as a new poll from respected local pollster Keating Research shows today, Frisch has closed considerable ground against Boebert, trailing in this latest poll by only two points:

In this poll, 45% of likely voters said they would vote for Frisch and 47% said they’d vote for Boebert. In a similar poll from July, also conducted by Keating Research, Frisch was 7-points behind Boebert, with 49% supporting Boebert and 42% for Frisch, showing that Frisch has been building momentum and will continue to close the gap in the coming weeks.

Unaffiliated voters, the largest voting group in the district, are flocking to Frisch and away from Boebert’s out-of-step views and 0-39 legislative record. In this poll, 57% of unaffiliated voters say they will support Frisch compared to just 32% for Boebert.

Frisch, a politically mainstream businessman who was registered as unaffiliated for decades before joining the Democratic Party in December to run against Boebert, is well-poised to continue growing support among this critical voting group and defeat Boebert in the fall. Frisch will be an independent voice for change, beholden only to the people of CO-3, not any political party.

“We are going to beat Lauren Boebert. I’ve believed this since I entered the race, but this poll showing that we are tied makes it even more clear that voters in CO-3 want Boebert’s circus to stop and are looking for a better choice to represent their families, their businesses, and their communities,” Frisch said. “The people of Western and Southern Colorado deserve a congressperson who will be a workhorse in Washington who is focused on the needs of the district, not a show pony like Boebert who only focuses on herself. I’ll work hard in Washington to protect our water, create jobs, and achieve energy independence.”

Here’s the memo. In addition, Keating is hosting a press call at noon today to walk reporters through their findings–all signs of confidence by the campaign that these numbers will hold up to scrutiny. When Frisch released a poll showing him down by 7 in July it raised some eyebrows, but now he can use that number to establish an upward trajectory.

But will it be enough to actually unseat Boebert? The only way Boebert loses in this R+7 (Cook PVI 2022) district is a combination of dissatisfaction with Boebert’s antics and a moderate opponent palatable to otherwise conservative-leaning swing voters. Frisch has worked hard to position himself as a moderate who fits the district, but after Boebert blew out her primary opponent Don Coram, Frisch was more or less on his own to show he can actually compete. Again, this has been a campaign waged largely under the radar while national Democratic cash has been rightly focused on the more competitive CD-8 and CD-7 races.

Consistent with the turnaround in Democratic political fortunes being observed nationally, this race is moving in Adam Frisch’s direction. It remains fundamentally Boebert’s race to lose, but that possibility is less remote than it was right after Coram’s shellacking.

Democrats should keep their eyes on their respective prizes, but be aware this is happening.

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32 thoughts on “Keating Poll: Lauren Boebert 47%, Adam Frisch 45%”

  2. I have my fingers crossed, my yard signs up and another contribution to Frisch on its way. I'd feel better if I heard any radio ads, which are the best and most cost-effective way to reach 3rd CD voters, but they may be running elsewhere than Boobert's base county.

     

  3. I was going to send $100 to Caraveo next week but I may split that contribution and send half to her and half to Frisch.

    Here is hoping that Bimbobert sees this poll, gets scared, and says or does something truly outlandish, even by her standards of outlandish behavior.

    1. Please send it all to Caraveo. Frisch is self funding and Yadira needs it much more.

      This is NOT a knock of Adam Frisch! Congrats on this awesome poll! If you take out Boebert you will be a hero for life.

      2. She is running in a district where there are about equal numbers of Dems and Repubs, and you think a sound strategy is for her to run as AOC?

         

            2. You’re upset she met with Republicans in the CO House to discuss cannabis policy? I’ve done my share of cannabis work and frankly there are Republicans that are really good on this issue and have some worthy ideas. They’re so far underwater in the House regarding their significant minority, how are they (House Republicans) a threat to any Democrat (or our Majority)? 

            3. Your credibility is hurt by not providing links to check your more provocative statements – not by anything V does or does not do.

              For example, Dr. Caraveo's finances are pretty much like any progressive Democrat's – heavy  on retired people and liberal groups, abortion, health care, reproductive rights, some PAC money. No "millionaires" that jump out at me – if you know differently, link to it.

              As far as V, V does what he does – converting political debate into personal insults is his thing, has been for many years, and he delights in it. I've been on the receiving end of it many times, and probably will be again.

              You treated Pols readers to many pages of dirty diaper / ageist stereotype jokes, so you're also comfortable with the insult slinging, apparently.

              I recommend not engaging with V at all if you can help it, but you do you.

              1. I don't expect you to remember, t-t, but I did reply once a long, long time ago that I had problems with 1317, so it wasn't precisely "zero shits" given. But I still want anyone from CD8 reading to vote Caraveo.

            4. “she was meeting secretly with Republicans in the State House to write legislation.”

              And that is bad in and of itself why?

              With which Republican was she meeting? Patrick Neville and those wackjobs or Colin Larson? Big difference.

              If she wins in November, she is likely to be a member of the minority party. Depending upon collaborating with people like Nancy Mace, David Valadao and whatever remaining non-Trump Republican House members are out there may be the only way to get anything done.

            5. Want a progressive?  Gotta find one willing to run who has some sort of chance.  In CO-8, there were 3 Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

              • Johnny Humphrey (D) self-identifies on his website: "Johnny Humphrey is a Moderate Democrat running for Congress:"
              • Chaz Tedesco (D) "delegate votes cast at the 8th District Democratic assembly, which was held virtually. Tedesco secured 29% of the delegate vote, just short of the 30% he needed to make the primary ballot."
              • Joshua Rodriguez (D)  "Rodriguez initially ran as a Democrat in the 2022 congressional election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District. He switched his party affiliation to run as a Republican on February 24, 2022.[1] He later declared candidacy as a Libertarian in the election for Colorado's 4th Congressional District.[2"

              Any explanation why a reasonably well-known, experienced politician, and union-endorsed candidate couldn't reach the primary?  

              Sounded to me like Caraveo "fits" the district's Democrats.

        1. Definitely lose the House if we lose CD 8, but we are probably going to lose the House anyway. My prediction five weeks out is that 5-seat Democratic majority becomes a 5-seat GOP majority.

          If we are doomed to have a Republican majority, of course, I'd prefer it be no larger than two seats – Dan Newhouse and Nancy Mace's seats.  wink

          1. Don’t forget Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA). He’s one of the good guys. Last month, he and Jason Crow introduced a bipartisan bill in the House to protect Americans’ health data from cyberattacks. 

            1. Ah, okay …. there are three. Life would get interesting in a 216 plus Mace and Fitzpatrick versus 217 Democrats.

              The election of a speaker might get interesting.

              And Gym Jordan would probably shit his pants.

            2. a narrow majority, the House Freedom group, and Kevin McCarthy being as minimally competent as he seems — seems like a scenario of nearly certain inability to pursue a coherent legislative strategy.

              2 years of (even more) legislative gridlock isn't going to be pretty.

              1. But they will come together at least three times to vote to impeach Joe Biden (since Trump was impeached twice).

                And we will hear more of the sordid stuff Hunter Biden did during his active addiction than most of us care to hear.

                But legislative agenda ….. ROFLMAO ….. they may put up an ACA repeal bill again, just for old time sake.

  5. Kyle Clark at Next on Channel 9 explained last night that the CD 3 race was not chosen for their televised debates because a Boebert victory was deemed to be a foregone conclusion.  CD 7 was chosen instead.  So Boebert will be able to evade a debate with Frisch.  Damn.

    1. Same Axios article quotes 538 as saying Boebert's chance of being re-elected is 98%.

      Much as I'd like her out; since I would be one of those pissed off conservatives if I lived in the 3rd; I'm thinking she'll win by 5-6%. 

      1. 538.com's assessment is a combo of past performance in the district, incumbency, national trend, "informed opinion," and polling.  As such, it is weighted in ways that may NOT apply to the newly drawn district, limited incumbency, a fluid national situation, and analysts expressing opinions as of a couple of months ago. 

        2 points behind in a single poll less than 3 weeks before ballots go out, with only 3% undecided — better than before, but I'm not certain it would be enough. 

        The race is going to be MUCH closer than the average of 8 elections analyzed by the Redistricting commission.

         

  7. Open Space is right. Boobert wouldn’t have shown up for a 9NEWS debate. It took major leaning on her by some of Club 20s biggest supporters, i.e. Duke’s favorite oily boyz, to get her to that debate. She goes only to events that will be very friendly to her. 

    I’m cautiously optimistic. There are few yard signs for her in Grand Junction, a stark contrast to her campaign two years ago. My fingers are crossed but I haven’t bet any money on the outcome.

  8. So just to be clear, since Frisch is self-funding there's no real purpose in contributing to his campaign? Just trying to figure out where to send and not send my dollars.

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