June 22, 2012 04:54 PM UTC

Charlie Cook Gives Miklosi Some Love

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• by: Colorado Pols

Charlie Cook gives Democratic CD-6 challenger Joe Miklosi a most favorable heads-up:

CO-06: Mike Coffman (R) – Denver southeast suburbs: Aurora, Littleton

Toss Up. Democrats scored a huge coup in Colorado redistricting when a state judge picked a map moving GOP-leaning Douglas County out of the 6th CD and uniting the increasingly Democratic suburb of Aurora on Denver’s east side. Under the old lines, immigration-obsessed GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo used to win easily and President Obama got just 46 percent of the vote. But under the new lines, Obama’s share surged to 54 percent, putting a huge target on Coffman’s back. Suburban Denver has steadily trended Democratic, and the Obama campaign will be putting a huge premium on turning out favorable voters here, particularly among recent transplants and Latinos. By the numbers, this is absolutely a district Democrats need to win to get the majority…

Cook Political Report has a high-level view of many hundreds of congressional races around the country. As a result they make mistakes sometimes, like claiming that Miklosi has “only token primary opposition”–Miklosi in fact has none. The last time we discussed Charlie Cook back in 2009, it was to note similar minor but glaring errors he made in otherwise not-inaccurate commentary.

Minor fouls aside (we all make them), Cook is doing Miklosi a big service by publicizing his race with a national and politically influential audience.  The most important fact governing this race, that CD-6 is no longer Tom Tancredo’s Republican stronghold, is still not widely understood by outside and even casual local observers. Cook isn’t as interested in Rep. Mike Coffman’s recent train of embarrassments, Cook is all about the math–and how the math has changed.

Miklosi needs the people who read Charlie Cook to know that part of the story.