9NEWS/Clarity Media: Hickenlooper 58%, Romanoff 28%

As announced by 9NEWS’ Marshall Zelinger a short while ago this evening, a new poll of the Colorado Democratic U.S. Senate primary slams home just days before voting ends the overwhelming advantage enjoyed by former Gov John Hickenlooper in this race:

More poll details can be found here.

A thirty-point advantage for Hickenlooper in this poll underscores a simple fact: all of the recent hullaballoo over Hickenlooper’s stumbles is still not enough to overcome eight years of beneficial experience as the popular though quirky and unpolished Democratic governor of Colorado, and years before that as Denver’s equally personable brewer-mayor. Every attempt to take Hickenlooper down politically immediately runs into an enduring positive impression he left with the voters of Colorado after leaving office.

The numbers in this poll explain very clearly why Democrats focused in defeating incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner have stuck with Hickenlooper around the rough edges: 67% say that Hickenlooper has the better chance of beating Gardner than Andrew Romanoff, and 62% say Hickenlooper is “an ethical guy who made some mistakes”–a clear indicator that the recently concluded ethics proceeding that resulted in some minor findings of fault for travel expenses did not do lasting damage to Hick’s reputation.

From the moment Hickenlooper entered the U.S. Senate race last summer, the result anticipated in this poll was the most likely outcome. Hickenlooper is the only contender in the primary who ever demonstrated the organizing and fundraising capacity for a contested U.S. Senate race. In an election with enormous importance for Democrats and a growing chance to actually retake the Senate, any advantage in one race that allows Democrats to allocate resources into another is crucial to the larger strategy.

This poll tells us that Colorado Democratic primary voters get it.

21 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. davebarnes says:

    But, Hick is not pure enough.

    Smiling Cory will use Hick’s support of oil & gas against him.

  2. RepealAndReplace says:

    Hick is surging! And he is doing it without promising free stuff to everyone and his brother.

  3. Duke Cox says:

    Amazing how two apparently intelligent people can come up with, in the same thread, the two dumbest comments of the day. "Purity" and "free stuff"…really?

    • MichaelBowman says:

      …and yet there are media buys by the DSC and a dark money group to carpet bomb Andrew between now and Tuesday (reportedly into seven figures). If your internals are telling you you’re ahead 2-1 this makes no sense. 

    • RepealAndReplace says:

      Let's face it, Hick was mocked for telling the public that he was not a socialist back when he was in the presidential debate.

      Andrew used to be a centrist/corporatist/DLC type but has come to the conclusion that his future is brightest by promising free stuff (MFA-whether-they-want-it-or-not, free college, etc., etc.).

      This is a referendum on whether Colorado Dems and UAFs want candidates who are promising free stuff for all. So far, it doesn't look good for the democratic socialists here.


      • MichaelBowman says:

        Hick missed a grand opportunity (like he did with ending Prohibition) to educate the masses on the difference between socialism and Democratic socialism (the program that made rural America great in its day). 

      • Diogenesdemar says:

        Let’s face it, if Hick isn’t on board with a whole lot of needed 1930’s depression-era “socialism” right now, he’s only marginally better than Coreless.

        I don’t think that’s the case, but Hick (like you, apparently) has a long history of far, far too often being too much concerned about certain labels, or running scared to avoid being labeled, than acting and taking action.

        It ain’t now, and never was, a referendum on “free stuff,” that’s just more tedious and tiresome trolling. It’s a referendum on who folks believe has the best positioning, support, and chance of beating Gardner.

        • Duke Cox says:

          Today the forces of liberalism face a crisis. The people of the United States must make a choice between two ways of living — a decision which will affect us the rest of our lives and our children and our grandchildren after us.

          On the other side, there is the Wall Street way of life and politics. Trust the leader! Let big business take care of prices and profits! Measure all things by money! That is the philosophy of the masters of the Republican Party.

          Well, I have been studying the Republican Party for over 12 years at close hand in the Capital of the United States. And by this time, I have discovered where the Republicans stand on most of the major issues.

          Since they won’t tell you themselves, I am going to tell you.

          They approve of the American farmer — but they are willing to help him go broke.

          They stand four-square for the American home — but not for housing.

          They are strong for labor — but they are stronger for restricting labor’s rights.

          They favor a minimum wage — the smaller the minimum the better.

          They indorse educational opportunity for all — but they won’t spend money for teachers or for schools.

          They think modern medical care and hospitals are fine — for people who can afford them.

          They approve of Social Security benefits — so much so that they took them away from almost a million people.

          They believe in international trade — so much so that they crippled our reciprocal trade program, and killed our International Wheat Agreement.

          They favor the admission of displaced persons — but only within shameful racial and religious limitations.

          They consider electric power a great blessing — but only when the private power companies get their rake-off.

          They say TVA is wonderful — but we ought never to try it again.

          They condemn “cruelly high prices” — but fight to the death every effort to bring them down.

          They think the American standard of living is a fine thing — so long as it doesn’t spread to all the people.

          And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.

          Now, my friends, that is the Wall Street Republican way of life. But there is another way — there is another way — the Democratic way, the way of the Democratic Party

          Harry Truman- St, Paul, Minn 1948

          pardon some repetition…editing by a distracted simpleton.

          • kwtree says:

            That's a wonderful timely speech, Duke…Very prescient of Mr. Truman.

            In other news, making Washington, DC, the 51st state is currently being debated in the House. Having Trump deploy private militia into the streets to brutalize peaceful protesters was an eye-opener for many.

            Since it won't get through McConnell's Senate, it will probably come up in the next session. Way overdue, in my opinion. Puerto Rico should be next.

          • MichaelBowman says:

            The Triad has a great piece today on 'old guard Republicans'

            Peggy Noonan has written one of her semi-regular columns where she ventures to observe that Donald Trump is manifestly unfit for office, before then waving her hands to equivocate and suggest that Joe Biden really hasn't done enough, just because he's leading the incumbent president by 14 points.

            You see a lot of this from old guard Republicans.

            They'll look at some Trump outrage—like the concentration camp sign-off with China, or the press conference where he floats injecting disinfectants—and they'll say, "This is just crazy town. This can't stand."

            • Conserv. Head Banger says:

              Thanks for clarifying that, Michael. When I saw the term "Triad," first thing coming to mind was the Chinese triads (gangsters) of Hong Kong and Macau.

  4. JohnInDenver says:

    Ancillary details from the SurveyUSA site:

    Of those voting for Romanoff:

    * A plurality, 37%, say they used to support Hickenlooper.
    * 32% say they have always been for Romanoff, disproportionately well-educated, married liberals.
    * 50% say they vote for Romanoff enthusiastically.
    * 43% say they vote for Romanoff with reservations.
    * 2/3rds say they are voting for Romanoff.
    * 1/3 say they are voting against Hickenlooper.
    * 32% correctly name Romanoff's most recent elected office, CO Speaker of the House. 37% of his voters don't know and the rest guess wrong.

    Of those voting for Hickenlooper:

    * An overwhelming majority, 80%, say they have always supported Hickenlooper.
    * Just 2% say they used to be for Romanoff.
    * 57% say they vote for Hickenlooper enthusiastically.
    * 33% say they vote for Hickenlooper with reservations.
    * 91% say they are voting for Hickenlooper.
    * Just 5% say they are voting against Romanoff.

    • Voyageur says:

      Get your earplugs.  When kwtree sees this post get ready for a very long, bitter, Ride of the Valkyries! She just can't help herself.  Neither can Duke, but at least his jabs are short.

  5. kwtree says:

    This one looks like a reliable poll, unlike most of the polls commissioned by Hick’s staff or funders, which have breathlessly hyped 60 point margins.

    It does look as if unaffiliated voters are breaking more for Hick than Romanoff; however, they were under-represented in the sampled population. (Only 20% of respondents were UAF, while that number is closer to 40% of actual registered voters in CO). 
    But the only poll that matters will be revealed on June 30 sometime before midnight, when ballots are counted. 

    Drop those ballots in the box, folks!

  6. spaceman65 says:

    Let's face it, Hick is basically a douchebag, but much less so than Gardner.  And voting is frequently a binary choice of the lesser of two evils (or douchebags).  So I'll vote for Hick, assuming he gets the nomination, but I'm not going to do it with glee.  

  7. kwtree says:

    Littwin: Poll showing Hick beating Romanoff is not the one Gardner should be worried about

    From the Colorado Sun Opinion Newsletter (can't link, only quote)

    Here’s the scary news for Gardner: In a new poll of swing-state Senate races, Democrats are leading in each one.

    …from the Colorado Sun’s Unaffiliated newsletter, explaining why an online poll with a 6-percentage-point credibility interval is not exactly gold standard, even from a reputable pollster. On the other hand, it’s 30 points, and if the poll, taken for Colorado Politics and 9News, is that wrong, it would be a scandal in the polling industry. I guarantee no pollster would wish to be quite so far out on a limb.

    As you may recall, a recent internal poll released by Romanoff had him down 12 points, which seemed more reasonable than 30 points. And yet, at a time when progressives are showing strength in Democratic primaries, Romanoff has had to watch as Elizabeth Warren endorsed the moderate Hickenlooper while Bernie Sanders hasn’t endorsed anyone.

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